Tue. Nov 12th, 2019

Happy New Year… two weeks of Wet! (and wind?)

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Tuesday 12 November 2019 - Tuesday: Rain ending this morning then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. High 11. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of drizzle. Low 8. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of drizzle in the morning. Fog patches in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 5. Thursday: Rain. High 9. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low 7. Friday: Rain. High 11. Friday night: Periods of rain. Low 8. Saturday: Rain. High 10. Saturday night: Rain. Low 8. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 11. Sunday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 6. Monday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 10.

  • Current Conditions
    7.9° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    101.71 kPa
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    7.9° C
    Heat Index
    7.9° C
    7.6° C
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 5:20:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    8.2° C @ 00:30 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.9° C @ 01:37 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    101.94 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.71 kPa @ 05:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    7.9° C @ 01:37 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.2° C @ 00:30 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 04:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

So doing my regular swipe through the forecast models today and I came across a beauty of a long range forecast.

Basically, our first few weeks of 2010 are going to be wet. And not just a little wet. If the forecast holds (and yes, that’s a big if right now) then between January 1 and January 14, we could see upwards of 400mm of rain.

That’s what the model is saying right now. Again. This could change, but it’s worth noting that there are “big” things being forecast all around North America right now. From a major New Years Eve blizzard in New England and New Brunswick, to a major cold snap afterwards across the continent… to.. yes.. our little neck of the woods. Where we have one mother of a week coming at us.

At this point it looks like there could be a good shot of wind as well with the system on the 8th-10th period. But again, it’s very far out, so too soon to say for sure.

So there’s you’re New Years heads up. Get ready for at least a little rain… and possibly… as much as we had in November. No small feat.

19 thoughts on “Happy New Year… two weeks of Wet! (and wind?)

  1. Uhoh, that don’t sound good. And I’m heading down to Duncan tomorrow for my yearly New Year’s show. Hope to make it back, and get my new station going before Mommy Nature opens the gates up!


  2. Yep, the first hit has crept into the mid-range forecast.

    Mild rain showers starting today through the 5th then a hit on the 6th. Total of 88mm expected in the next week… plus another 250 the week after.

  3. Yikes, I always like the stormy season but we’re flying out of YVR on the 9th for Houston and then on to San Salvador for a couple of weeks. I haven’t flown since 1978 when my ear drums blew. A little nervous to say the least! Now with the new security etc. and a scary forecast to boot…..Triple YIKES.

  4. I would rather be blasted with snow, which is fun to play in both personally and in my 4×4, than have rain which is just wet cold and depressing.

  5. Well, as it stands now we’re looking at a lot more rain than snow and it’s getting to worse rather than better.

    Right now they have 90mm between now and next wednesday (mostly coming on the weekend) plus another 313mm the week after that (8th thru 15th).

    On the brighter side at least it might not just be boring rain and fog… on the far week we look to be in for at least some wind along with the rain. Right now it’s projecting in the 20-25knot (40-45kph) range.

  6. Well at least that’s a little exciting. But I put the plow on my quad over a month ago and haven’t been able to even use it! Yeesh. I do love a good heavy rain storm, though – sounds so relaxing with the metal roof on my house!

  7. Well they’ve moderated the forecast some now. Now instead of a straight week of rain they’re saying we’ll get a bit of a chilly dry spell after our little bit of rain this weekend.

  8. Was trying to find your yearly site stats… I’m sitting at 1619mm for the year (as for 1:41pm today) between the two houses I’ve been at… the big month was 697mm in November…

    Happy New Year everyone!

  9. Looks broken:

    Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/chrisale/public_html/alberniweather/wp-content/themes/alberniweather/timeoffsets.inc.php on line 170

  10. Nope, thats on the top of the page when I clicked the link you send for the Yearly stats… I just checked again, and its still there.

  11. Hmmm… seems to be an issue with the new year! The Almanacs that stretch back through yesterday are OK, but anything that starts today is unhappy. I’ll work on it!

    Some nice gusts just now! sounds like 50+

  12. Well, it looks like it has fixed itself. I suspect it has something to do with the first day of the year not returning currently in PHP…. or something… anyway… too hard to debug it now that it has disappeared… so we’ll see if it happens again next year! 🙂

  13. Well, finally got my new Davis station online. All seems to be happy now. Will keep an eye on it for a while just to make sure nothing happens. Spring should see me burying some conduit to pull the cable thru and protect it from the elements, and kids.

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