We seem to have been bitten by a no-snow bug this year. This is the second time that we’ve been expecting significant snowfall only to end up with green grass.

At this point I would be surprised if we get anything at all over night. There doesn’t seem to be much moisture available at all. Instead the interest looks to be the low pressure that seems to be deepening a little more than expected and passing directly over us. I’ll be watching the barometer graph for a corresponding jump in the wind.

There is another consequence to that change in the forecast though, and that is that strong and cold Easterlies are slamming the East Coast and producing pretty good rain and snow mixes. Whiteout conditions have been reported as lately as 6:30 in Nanaimo!

Here’s the VIU/Parkway Hwy19 webcam:

It looks like the East Coast is going to get the best chance of a dump of snow.

They are getting hit pretty good right now on the radar:

And Islandweather.ca is showing that all parts of the East Coast north of Woodgrove Centre are below zero and ripe for snow.

Looks like they could get a dump, especially just a bit inland away from the water.

I would be most careful of the Eastern stretches of Highway 4 near Cameron Lake.

Snow is still in the forecast except the amounts of dropped off quite a bit. It looks like there is somewhat less moisture in the atmosphere than they anticipated before so the most we’re going to get is 5cm before it changes to rain in the afternoon.

And in fact, with the temperature only just barely below zero this morning. I only give a 30% chance that we’ll actually see the snow accumulate near the water. Higher elevations will certainly get it, especially Sutton Pass and the possibly the Hump. But Port Alberni is likely to get a very messy bit of business.

The NOAA is still predicting a 70% chance of 4 inches (10cm) falling in our region between 4AM this morning and 4PM this afternoon.

And there is still an outside shot at 8 inches:

The other models have really not changed much. The same timings apply. Snow or Rain should start around 10AM this morning and be heaviest around 1PM.

One thing that is interesting is the Low is slated to cross directly over Southern Vancouver Island tomorrow afternoon. This is a change from the original forecast which had it going into Western Washington.