Sat. May 25th, 2019

Chance of Snow Friday and Friday Night

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Saturday 25 May 2019 - Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers this morning and early this afternoon then a mix of sun and cloud. High 18. UV index 4 or moderate. Saturday night: Clearing this evening. Fog patches developing overnight. Low 8. Sunday: Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 29. UV index 7 or high. Sunday night: Clear. Low 9. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 27. Monday night: Clear. Low 11. Tuesday: Sunny. High 25. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Wednesday: Sunny. High 24. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 11. Thursday: Sunny. High 22. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.1° C
    -0.3 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.18 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 1.6 km/h
    Humidity
    80 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.1° C
    Heat Index
    13.1° C
    Dewpoint
    9.7° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    29 W/m2
    Last Updated: 6:05:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:42
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (61% full)
    Civil Set
    21:50
    Day Length
    13:16:10
    Day High
    15.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    13.1° C @ 05:53 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.34 kPa @ 01:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.18 kPa @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    13.1° C @ 05:53 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    15.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 8.1km/h @ 00:50 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    30W/m2 @ 06:02 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Looks like the chances for some wet snow is increasing for Friday.

Here’s the latest model:

I’ve boxed out the two distinct parts of what I think might happen on Friday.

The green box is the start of the event, which should be wet but might include sleet/slush especially at higher elevations. The second event starts when the wind shifts from Southerlies to East and finally Northwest. Depending how strong that shift is and how cold the front is, it could switch the precipitation over to snow quite quickly. Again, as has been the case all year we will likely be right on the borderline of around 1C-0C so the smallest changes in temperatures, or how heavy the precipitation comes down, will determine whether it is snow or not.

It does look like a chance for some wind to accompany the action on Friday, which could make things very nasty. Outside chance of a Winter Storm Warning? (Wind+Snowfall) We’ll see.

The good news is, for the kids, that it does not look like it will get immediately washed away so if we do get enough snow to matter, then we’ll be able to play in it all weekend.

On the Long Range side of things… the GFS really backed off on the deep freeze in yesterdays runs. It’s come back somewhat now though. And is showing a pretty snowy pattern all the way out to the week after next. Consistently below freezing with plenty of precipitation. Again though, take it with a big grain of salt. I would suspect what it will equate to is foggy days near zero with a chance of flurries, sleet, and rain.

Other models *are* showing signs that we could have an extended stretch below freezing at the beginning of March.