Chance of Snow Friday and Friday Night

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT , Port Alberni
    Issued: 04:56 AM PDT Monday 23 July 2018

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Monday 23 July 2018 - Monday: Sunny. High 33. Humidex 34. UV index 8 or very high. Monday night: Clear. Low 13. Tuesday: Sunny. High 34. Humidex 37. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 35. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 13. Thursday: Sunny. High 34. Thursday night: Clear. Low 14. Friday: Sunny. High 33. Friday night: Clear. Low 15. Saturday: Sunny. High 32. Saturday night: Clear. Low 15. Sunday: Sunny. High 31.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    17.6° C
    3.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.1 kPa
    rising
    Wind
    NE2 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    71 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    NA° C
    Heat Index
    18.5° C
    Dewpoint
    12.3° C
    UV
    0.7
    Solar
    183 W/m2
    Last Updated: 7:55:00 PST
    Station Reports Delayed
    25 minutes
    Showing Nearest Official Station

    Observed at: Port Alberni 08:00 AM PDT Monday 23 July 2018
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:59
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (85% full)
    Civil Set
    21:51
    Day Length
    13:25:43
    Day High
    20.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    14.2° C @ 05:57 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.01 kPa @ 07:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.96 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    14.2° C @ 05:57 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    20.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    188W/m2 @ 07:54 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.8 @ 07:54 Tdy.

Looks like the chances for some wet snow is increasing for Friday.

Here’s the latest model:

I’ve boxed out the two distinct parts of what I think might happen on Friday.

The green box is the start of the event, which should be wet but might include sleet/slush especially at higher elevations. The second event starts when the wind shifts from Southerlies to East and finally Northwest. Depending how strong that shift is and how cold the front is, it could switch the precipitation over to snow quite quickly. Again, as has been the case all year we will likely be right on the borderline of around 1C-0C so the smallest changes in temperatures, or how heavy the precipitation comes down, will determine whether it is snow or not.

It does look like a chance for some wind to accompany the action on Friday, which could make things very nasty. Outside chance of a Winter Storm Warning? (Wind+Snowfall) We’ll see.

The good news is, for the kids, that it does not look like it will get immediately washed away so if we do get enough snow to matter, then we’ll be able to play in it all weekend.

On the Long Range side of things… the GFS really backed off on the deep freeze in yesterdays runs. It’s come back somewhat now though. And is showing a pretty snowy pattern all the way out to the week after next. Consistently below freezing with plenty of precipitation. Again though, take it with a big grain of salt. I would suspect what it will equate to is foggy days near zero with a chance of flurries, sleet, and rain.

Other models *are* showing signs that we could have an extended stretch below freezing at the beginning of March.