Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

Chance of Snow Friday and Friday Night

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 16 July 2019 - Tuesday night: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers early this evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Low 14. Wednesday: Rain ending late in the morning then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Becoming windy near noon. High 22. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the evening. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. High 19. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 8. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 25. Saturday night: Clear. Low 12. Sunday: Sunny. High 24. Sunday night: Clear. Low 12. Monday: Sunny. High 24.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    23.8° C
    0.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.3 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SE 19 km/h
    gusting 35 km/h
    Humidity
    53 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    23.8° C
    Heat Index
    23.8° C
    Dewpoint
    13.7° C
    UV
    1.9
    Solar
    329 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    24.6° C @ 13:36 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.3 kPa @ 17:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    24.6° C @ 13:36 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 19km/h @ 17:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1194W/m2 @ 13:30 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.5 @ 12:43 Tdy.

Looks like the chances for some wet snow is increasing for Friday.

Here’s the latest model:

I’ve boxed out the two distinct parts of what I think might happen on Friday.

The green box is the start of the event, which should be wet but might include sleet/slush especially at higher elevations. The second event starts when the wind shifts from Southerlies to East and finally Northwest. Depending how strong that shift is and how cold the front is, it could switch the precipitation over to snow quite quickly. Again, as has been the case all year we will likely be right on the borderline of around 1C-0C so the smallest changes in temperatures, or how heavy the precipitation comes down, will determine whether it is snow or not.

It does look like a chance for some wind to accompany the action on Friday, which could make things very nasty. Outside chance of a Winter Storm Warning? (Wind+Snowfall) We’ll see.

The good news is, for the kids, that it does not look like it will get immediately washed away so if we do get enough snow to matter, then we’ll be able to play in it all weekend.

On the Long Range side of things… the GFS really backed off on the deep freeze in yesterdays runs. It’s come back somewhat now though. And is showing a pretty snowy pattern all the way out to the week after next. Consistently below freezing with plenty of precipitation. Again though, take it with a big grain of salt. I would suspect what it will equate to is foggy days near zero with a chance of flurries, sleet, and rain.

Other models *are* showing signs that we could have an extended stretch below freezing at the beginning of March.