Fri. Feb 22nd, 2019

Chance of Snow Friday and Friday Night

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Thursday 21 February 2019 - Thursday night: Cloudy. Periods of snow beginning late this evening. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 in the evening. Friday: Periods of snow ending near noon then cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers. Snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm. High 6. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Cloudy. Flurries beginning late in the evening. Amount 2 cm. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill near minus 4. Saturday: Flurries or rain showers. High plus 4. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 4. Sunday: Sunny. High plus 5. Sunday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Monday: Sunny. High 7. Monday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Tuesday: Sunny. High 6. Tuesday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 5.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    -0.3° C
    -0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.8 kPa
    falling
    Wind
    0 km/h
    gusting 6.4 km/h
    Humidity
    87 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    NA° C
    Heat Index
    3.6° C
    Dewpoint
    -2.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 0:00:00 PDT
    Station Reports Delayed
    7 minutes
    Showing Nearest Official Station

    Observed at: Port Alberni 11:00 PM PST Thursday 21 February 2019
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:42
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (90% full)
    Civil Set
    18:24
    Day Length
    12:32:40
    Day High
    9.3° C @ 15:11 Ystd
    Day Low
    -4.2° C @ 06:45 Ystd
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.25 kPa @ 08:59 Ystd
    Day Low Barometer
    101.63 kPa @ 23:59 Ystd
    Day Low Windchill
    -5.5° C @ 03:07 Ystd
    Day High Heat Index
    9.3° C @ 15:11 Ystd
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 11.8km/h @ 22:00 Ystd
    Day High Solar Radiation
    575W/m2 @ 12:52 Ystd
    Day High UV Index
    2.0 @ 12:38 Ystd

Looks like the chances for some wet snow is increasing for Friday.

Here’s the latest model:

I’ve boxed out the two distinct parts of what I think might happen on Friday.

The green box is the start of the event, which should be wet but might include sleet/slush especially at higher elevations. The second event starts when the wind shifts from Southerlies to East and finally Northwest. Depending how strong that shift is and how cold the front is, it could switch the precipitation over to snow quite quickly. Again, as has been the case all year we will likely be right on the borderline of around 1C-0C so the smallest changes in temperatures, or how heavy the precipitation comes down, will determine whether it is snow or not.

It does look like a chance for some wind to accompany the action on Friday, which could make things very nasty. Outside chance of a Winter Storm Warning? (Wind+Snowfall) We’ll see.

The good news is, for the kids, that it does not look like it will get immediately washed away so if we do get enough snow to matter, then we’ll be able to play in it all weekend.

On the Long Range side of things… the GFS really backed off on the deep freeze in yesterdays runs. It’s come back somewhat now though. And is showing a pretty snowy pattern all the way out to the week after next. Consistently below freezing with plenty of precipitation. Again though, take it with a big grain of salt. I would suspect what it will equate to is foggy days near zero with a chance of flurries, sleet, and rain.

Other models *are* showing signs that we could have an extended stretch below freezing at the beginning of March.