Thu. Sep 20th, 2018

Warning: Major snow possible Tuesday through Wednesday.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 11:31 AM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018 - Thursday: Rain. Amount 10 mm. Temperature steady near 12. UV index 1 or low. Thursday night: Rain at times heavy. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Temperature steady near 11. Friday: Periods of rain. Risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 15. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Periods of rain. Low 11. Saturday: Rain. High 16. Saturday night: Showers. Low 11. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Clear. Low 8. Monday: Sunny. High 21. Monday night: Clear. Low 7. Tuesday: Sunny. High 20. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.1° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.96 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    1.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.1° C
    Heat Index
    13.1° C
    Dewpoint
    11.6° C
    UV
    0.2
    Solar
    50 W/m2
    Last Updated: 12:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    1.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:30
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (83% full)
    Civil Set
    19:53
    Day Length
    13:12:31
    Day High
    13.3° C @ 11:32 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    3.8mm/hr @ 12:03 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.98 kPa @ 08:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.87 kPa @ 01:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.3° C @ 11:32 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.6km/h @ 05:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    178W/m2 @ 10:44 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:17 Tdy.

More to come… but just so we’re clear. This could be our biggest snow event of the Winter.

Alright, we have a large amount of precipitation coming our way Tuesday. (not so much tonight).

Here are some illustrations:

Here, this is the Canadian GEM (regional) model for Noon on Tuesday (18Z).

Notice the front sweeping down from the Northwest. This is a case of a low pressure center travelling down the coast, bringing precipitation and cool air along down with it and then curving into Western Washington. A pretty classic setup for snow for us.

And now for 10PM (6Z). This shows we will have received around 20mm (yellow) of precipitation between 10AM and 10PM. How much of that is rain or snow?

Around 4PM (0Z) looks like the meat of the storm and the point of strongest snow or rain. You can see strong areas of moisture over us on Vancouver Island (in red) and on the Lower Mainland. The big question will be the temperature.
This is from the NOAA/GFS model at that strongest point 4PM Tuesday (0Z).

Notice the blue line? That is the freezing point. It fluctuates over the Island but never really gets pushed out of the area through this whole event. Once again, we will be on the bubble on whether the air is warm enough to support snow. All models are in agreement that it will be strongest between 4PM and Midnight on Tuesday.

And finally, thanks to Bill for the link to this image below which shows Port Alberni with a solid 70%(red) chance of 4inches (10cm) of snow between Tuesday and Wednesay Morning.

and a 40%(green)-70% chance of more than 8 inches (20cm) of snow between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings!

And oh ya, it’s been pretty cold! We got down to -4.6C last night and -3C the night before. The Airport got down to -7C. Not record territory though. If we’re that cold tomorrow morning. Which is a possibility… then hold on to your hats and get out the shovels!

I’ll update again tonight.

4 thoughts on “Warning: Major snow possible Tuesday through Wednesday.

  1. Yes, the biggest chance for snowfall is for inland areas of the Island, but there is also a chance that it’ll make it to the west coast too.  I guess we’ll see how much of it is messy white stuff when it gets here!

  2. Ugh, i have to say that these snowstorms have shown impeccable timing this winter when it comes to messing up my Wednesday commutes to and from Tofino. 🙁

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