Sat. May 25th, 2019

Snow Forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Saturday 25 May 2019 - Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers this morning and early this afternoon then a mix of sun and cloud. High 18. UV index 4 or moderate. Saturday night: Clearing this evening. Fog patches developing overnight. Low 8. Sunday: Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 29. UV index 7 or high. Sunday night: Clear. Low 9. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 27. Monday night: Clear. Low 11. Tuesday: Sunny. High 25. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Wednesday: Sunny. High 24. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 11. Thursday: Sunny. High 22. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.1° C
    -0.3 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.18 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    80 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.1° C
    Heat Index
    13.1° C
    Dewpoint
    9.7° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    27 W/m2
    Last Updated: 5:50:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:42
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (61% full)
    Civil Set
    21:50
    Day Length
    13:16:10
    Day High
    15.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    13.1° C @ 05:46 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.34 kPa @ 01:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.18 kPa @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    13.1° C @ 05:46 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    15.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 8.1km/h @ 00:50 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    28W/m2 @ 05:48 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

So the models have held strong and are still predicting pretty significant snowfall over the next 48 hours starting with light flurries before sunrise Tuesday morning.

Here is the GFS for 10AM Tuesday. This is about the earliest that we can expect the first serious snowfall to start up. As you can see in the image, Victoria isn’t yet covered.

By 1PM things are really happening:

Notice also that the blue line has pulled oh-so-slightly to the East. Indicating that we are just above freezing. We really will be right on the borderline. Local area geography will be a deciding factor on whether this is a major snow or rain event.

That said the updated snowfall probabilities show a 70% chance of us receiving up to 4 inches (10cm) before 4PM Tuesday.

It shows a somewhat less defined 40-70% chance of another 4 inches (10cm) falling between 4PM Tuesday and 4PM Wednesday.

MAXIMUM: 8 inches will fall between now and Wednesday Afternoon.
MINIMUM: It will all be wet snow and rain with nothing on the ground except at higher elevations (skiers)

I think it will be somewhere in between those two. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had 5cm by noon tomorrow and then got into a really messy, slushy, yucky downpour for the rest of the day.

Good luck out there! I’ll update again tomorrow before 6AM.

3 thoughts on “Snow Forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday

  1. No doubt about waking up tomorrow morning early.  It should be interesting. If you want a few more images for whatever purposes, feel free to snag stuff off my site.  The NOAA APT images have been decent recently.  530am should be the last of the good morning updates tomorrow, and then nothing until just after lunch when the afternoon passes go again. 

  2. Huh, snow just in time for me to go back to work. Oh well, I have a 4×4, so getting to work and home should be fine, IF we get any snow, that is. Otherwise, it’ll probably be rain, as usual.

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