Wed. Oct 17th, 2018

Snow Forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Wednesday 17 October 2018 - Wednesday: Sunny. Fog patches early this morning. High 18. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: A few clouds. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 4. Thursday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 17. UV index 3 or moderate. Thursday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 17. Friday night: Fog. Low plus 5. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Saturday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Fog. Low 6. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Tuesday: Rain. High 14.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    5.3° C
    0.6 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.35 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.3° C
    Heat Index
    5.3° C
    Dewpoint
    5.0° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    52 W/m2
    Last Updated: 8:35:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:10
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (59% full)
    Civil Set
    18:57
    Day Length
    13:04:30
    Day High
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    4.5° C @ 05:19 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.4 kPa @ 00:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.33 kPa @ 07:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    4.5° C @ 05:19 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    53W/m2 @ 08:32 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

So the models have held strong and are still predicting pretty significant snowfall over the next 48 hours starting with light flurries before sunrise Tuesday morning.

Here is the GFS for 10AM Tuesday. This is about the earliest that we can expect the first serious snowfall to start up. As you can see in the image, Victoria isn’t yet covered.

By 1PM things are really happening:

Notice also that the blue line has pulled oh-so-slightly to the East. Indicating that we are just above freezing. We really will be right on the borderline. Local area geography will be a deciding factor on whether this is a major snow or rain event.

That said the updated snowfall probabilities show a 70% chance of us receiving up to 4 inches (10cm) before 4PM Tuesday.

It shows a somewhat less defined 40-70% chance of another 4 inches (10cm) falling between 4PM Tuesday and 4PM Wednesday.

MAXIMUM: 8 inches will fall between now and Wednesday Afternoon.
MINIMUM: It will all be wet snow and rain with nothing on the ground except at higher elevations (skiers)

I think it will be somewhere in between those two. I wouldn’t be surprised if we had 5cm by noon tomorrow and then got into a really messy, slushy, yucky downpour for the rest of the day.

Good luck out there! I’ll update again tomorrow before 6AM.

3 thoughts on “Snow Forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday

  1. No doubt about waking up tomorrow morning early.  It should be interesting. If you want a few more images for whatever purposes, feel free to snag stuff off my site.  The NOAA APT images have been decent recently.  530am should be the last of the good morning updates tomorrow, and then nothing until just after lunch when the afternoon passes go again. 

  2. Huh, snow just in time for me to go back to work. Oh well, I have a 4×4, so getting to work and home should be fine, IF we get any snow, that is. Otherwise, it’ll probably be rain, as usual.

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