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First fall storm is here – warnings on inaction – and a Poem!

I have three important things you should see today! Make sure you see them all! :)

First: Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement announcing our first fall storm (on the first full day of fall!).

It’s a beauty of a storm!
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They are predicting around 40mm in the next 24 hours. UWash is predicting around 20mm. We will see who wins but you better get your furniture in from outside and be prepared for slippery, dark, and windy, roads. Please drive safely.

Here is their statement:

6:14 AM PDT Tuesday 23 September 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:

Inland Vancouver Island
Fall storm bringing rain and wind to the South Coast today.

The first Pacific storm of the fall season will arrive this afternoon bringing rain and blustery winds to the South Coast. This storm system will exit the region Wednesday.

Rainfall amounts near 60 mm are expected for West Vancouver Island, 40 mm for Howe Sound and 20-30 mm for the remaining South Coast regions.

Strong southeasterly winds of 60 km/h will develop this evening for portions of Victoria and Eastern Vancouver Island. Winds of 40-60 km/h are expected along the remaining regions adjacent to the Strait of Georgia. Winds will diminish Wednesday afternoon.

Next: Another important event on this first day of fall: the opening of the climate conference in New York. The statement by the chair of the IPCC pulls no punches as to the seriousness of the situation but also shows solutions are there!

I have highlighted some key points.

Statement by Rajendra K. Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC, to the Opening Ceremony of the UN Climate Summit
23 September 2014

Good morning. I salute His Excellency the Secretary-General for organizing this landmark event.

I am privileged to be here to present a summary of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. The report, compiled by hundreds of scientists, is the most comprehensive assessment of climate change ever undertaken.

Three key messages have emerged from the report:
One: Human influence on the climate system is clear – and clearly growing.
Two: We must act quickly and decisively if we want to avoid increasingly destructive outcomes.
Three: We have the means to limit climate change and build a better future.

Let me address each of these points.

We have abundant evidence that we are changing our climate.

The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.

Greenhouse gases in our atmosphere have increased to levels unprecedented in the past 800,000 years.

Our time to take action is running out. If we want a chance to limit the global rise in temperature to 2 degrees Celsius, our emissions should peak by 2020. If we carry on business as usual, our opportunity to remain below the 2-degree limit will slip away well before the middle of the century.

More over, the longer we wait the higher the risk of severe, widespread and irreversible impacts.

- Food and water shortages.
– Increased poverty.
– Forced migrations that could increase the risk of violent conflict.
– Extreme droughts and floods.
– The collapse of ice sheets that flood our coastal cities.

And a steady rise in our death toll, especially among the world’s poorest. How on Earth can we leave our children with a world like this?

I’m not sure I could stand before you if the threats of climate change had no solutions. But they do. We already have the means to build a better, more sustainable world.

The solutions are many and allow for continued economic development. While some technologies need additional development, many are already available.

Renewable energy is a real option. Half of the world’s new electricity generating capacity in 2012 came from renewables.

We also have tremendous opportunities to improve energy efficiency.

And we can further reduce emissions by stopping deforestation.

We are told that limiting climate change will be too expensive. It will not. But wait until you get the bill for inaction. There are costs of taking action – but they are nothing compared to the cost of inaction.

It comes down to a matter of choice. We can continue along our existing path and face dire consequences.

Or we can listen to the voice of science, and resolve to act before it’s too late. That’s our choice.
Thank you for listening.

And Finally, a loyal reader passed along a wonderful poem about the weather. I promised I would post it on here and so here it is!

Weather

Whether the weather be fine
Or whether the weather be not
Whether the weather be cold
Or whether the weather be hot
We’ll weather the weather
Whatever the weather
Whether we like it or not.

Now some like it cold
And some like it hot
I like it in between
Cause extremes I like not.

On rainy days I sit and ponder
And hope that it will stop
Oh no, the roof is leaking now
Where is that doggone mop?

The wind’s another story
Cause it makes my hair a mess
Moose and gel and hair spray
To hold each wayward tress

And in the fall
we rake and rake
and rake and rake and rake
and rake and rake
and rake and rake and rake.
And rake.

And just around the corner
We’ll see a little snow
Softly drifting snowflakes
How deep? We just don’t know.

Now we long for spring to come
To see the flowers bloom
But with it comes that rain again
And we’re filled with soggy gloom.

Summer sneaks right up on us
And hits us with a blast
Where the heck did spring go
Hot and sticky got here fast!

We are simply never satisfied
With the weather that’s our lot
If it’s cold we moan and groan
And wish that it were hot.
And if it’s hot as like as not
We wish that it would rain
Maybe just a good strong wind
Would cool us down again!

~ Charlotte Anselmo ~

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Rain is coming, but big differences in amounts! Fall begins tonight.

I hope everyone enjoyed the last full day of summer yesterday. We broke another short term heat record! We officiall reached 28.7°C at the Airport. The record at the Airport station was 28.5°C set on September 21, 1999. It was a couple degrees shy of an all time record.

First… Welcome back Kids!

My daughter is super excited to finally be back at school. I hope your kids are too. I know lots of parents that are! :). And thank you teachers for your sacrifice. It has been a hard summer for all.

Here comes Fall! And the Rain and the Uncertainty!
It was a perfect sunny day to have a climate change rally yesterday. It was very ni to see
Thank
Fall officially begins at 7:29PM our time tonight,. And it looks like it might be quite the shift from our dry and relatively calm and pleasant summer.

That said, we have some pretty dramatic differences in our forecasts. Environment Canada this morning has said to expect 50-70mm on Tuesday and showers every day all week. However the UWash models show much less rain scattered throughout the week.

Case in point:
The Canadian Ensemble Model, available at Spotx.com, which should be helping to inform the EC forecast, predicts 100mm of rain to fall by Friday the 26th. Check out the right-most column below for precipitation. You’ll see a big jump for tomorrow of around 50mm in 24 hours.
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However, the UWash GFS model says to expect only up to 30mm (1.28in on their scale in green), through Thursday 5AM.
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So what I will do is report the University of Washington model results and then we can see which service, EC/CMC or UWash/GFS comes out on top.

According to UWash, The rain will begin this morning before 11AM.
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The strongest rain actually looks to be on the east coast. But we look to get up to 8mm by tomorrow morning (5AM). Nanaimo and Parksville are in line for up to 30mm. In fact, it’s raining here in Nanaimo as I type waiting for the bus. :)
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Don’t worry though we will get our share tomorrow (Tuesday) night. It will be mostly dry through the day Tuesday but by Tuesday evening the rain laden clouds should roll in again. This time the rain will be more focused on us starting between 5-8PM with around 2mm
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The biggest pulse of rain will come late. By 5AM Wednesday the UW model predicts we will have 16mm accumulated over the past 24hrs.
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Great Day for a Climate Protest.

It was a beautiful day for a rally! Thanks to everyone for coming out. There were 300,000-400,000 people that marched in New York.
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We can only hope it will make a difference in our political and economic direction. We have the solutions. We just need the big guns to commit to making it happen. There was a great bunch of reports and discussion on the National last night. Here’s hoping the leaders gathering in New York tomorrow will put us on the right path.