Pattern switches briefly but worst of rain might miss us.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 5:25 PM PST Saturday 24 February 2018 - Saturday night: Rain ending after midnight then cloudy. Wet snow over higher terrain. Becoming windy this evening. Low zero. Sunday: Mainly cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or wet flurries. Risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 7. Sunday night: Partly cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers in the evening. Low minus 3. Monday: Cloudy. High 8. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy. High 7. Tuesday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Wednesday: Rain or snow. High plus 4. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 1. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 7. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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There was something very comfortable about waking up on Wednesday to the sound and feel of rain.

We received about 25mm of rain which was a little more than forecast.  Unfortunately, none of it fell as snow at either snowpack station.  We remain at zero snowpack at the south island Jump Creek station.  The Wolf River station west of Campbell River is at 370mm of snow water equivalent which is around 1/3rd of normal.  The latest (March 1) report from the BC River forecast centre states the island is at 21% of normal snowpack  overall (Lower Mainland is at 15%) and blames warmer than normal air and sea surface temperatures causing near normal total precipitation to fall mostly as rain instead of snow at higher, mid and lower elevations,

Rain on the way Saturday.  Amount Uncertain.

We will see a little bit of rain Thursday and Friday but the main event is coming on Saturday starting before dawn… The question is how much?

imageThis shows the peak time before 11AM and the rain focused mostly on the west coast, only 2-4mm in our area in that period.  Maybe 8mm total.

The interesting thing is the model shows as the day and night goes on Saturday the focus will move south (which is why we dry out) and the pineapple express will be pointed squarely at Seattle and most of west and central Washington State.

image

 

So we might even be in the sun Sunday morning while our neighbours directly south get drenched. But dont feel too smug!  Look at the difference from midnight (above) to 5AM Sunday morning (below)!

image

We are still dry, but boy its close.

Like a fire hose that has gotten loose and is whipping to-and-fro, when the jet stream is flowing over top of us a 100-200km shift north or south is nothing at all.

So it will be very interesting to see what our actual rainfall totals are like by the end of is weekend.  Here is the current total forecast, Friday 5AM to Sunday 5AM.

imageThe north coast of Washington and West Island get big 2day totals, but we remain practically dry with only 8mm total.

Count this as a very preliminary total that could change drastically.  What you can count on though, is it will fall as rain everywhere on the Island.  Temperatures will be above 10°C all weekend with Friday being especially warm.

The threat of rain should end Sunday and next week looks dry and warm again.