Wed. Oct 17th, 2018

Pattern switches briefly but worst of rain might miss us.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Wednesday 17 October 2018 - Wednesday: Sunny. Fog patches early this morning. High 18. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: A few clouds. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 4. Thursday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 17. UV index 3 or moderate. Thursday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 17. Friday night: Fog. Low plus 5. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Saturday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Fog. Low 6. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Tuesday: Rain. High 14.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    5.7° C
    0.6 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.34 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.7° C
    Heat Index
    5.7° C
    Dewpoint
    5.4° C
    UV
    0.5
    Solar
    91 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:10
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (59% full)
    Civil Set
    18:57
    Day Length
    13:04:30
    Day High
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    4.5° C @ 05:19 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.4 kPa @ 00:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.33 kPa @ 07:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    4.5° C @ 05:19 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    98W/m2 @ 09:14 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.5 @ 09:08 Tdy.

There was something very comfortable about waking up on Wednesday to the sound and feel of rain.

We received about 25mm of rain which was a little more than forecast.  Unfortunately, none of it fell as snow at either snowpack station.  We remain at zero snowpack at the south island Jump Creek station.  The Wolf River station west of Campbell River is at 370mm of snow water equivalent which is around 1/3rd of normal.  The latest (March 1) report from the BC River forecast centre states the island is at 21% of normal snowpack  overall (Lower Mainland is at 15%) and blames warmer than normal air and sea surface temperatures causing near normal total precipitation to fall mostly as rain instead of snow at higher, mid and lower elevations,

Rain on the way Saturday.  Amount Uncertain.

We will see a little bit of rain Thursday and Friday but the main event is coming on Saturday starting before dawn… The question is how much?

imageThis shows the peak time before 11AM and the rain focused mostly on the west coast, only 2-4mm in our area in that period.  Maybe 8mm total.

The interesting thing is the model shows as the day and night goes on Saturday the focus will move south (which is why we dry out) and the pineapple express will be pointed squarely at Seattle and most of west and central Washington State.

image

 

So we might even be in the sun Sunday morning while our neighbours directly south get drenched. But dont feel too smug!  Look at the difference from midnight (above) to 5AM Sunday morning (below)!

image

We are still dry, but boy its close.

Like a fire hose that has gotten loose and is whipping to-and-fro, when the jet stream is flowing over top of us a 100-200km shift north or south is nothing at all.

So it will be very interesting to see what our actual rainfall totals are like by the end of is weekend.  Here is the current total forecast, Friday 5AM to Sunday 5AM.

imageThe north coast of Washington and West Island get big 2day totals, but we remain practically dry with only 8mm total.

Count this as a very preliminary total that could change drastically.  What you can count on though, is it will fall as rain everywhere on the Island.  Temperatures will be above 10°C all weekend with Friday being especially warm.

The threat of rain should end Sunday and next week looks dry and warm again.