Sun. Oct 21st, 2018

Counting down to Spring Equinox – A cool and variable week – Zero South Island Snowpack

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Saturday 20 October 2018 - Saturday night: A few clouds. Increasing cloudiness late this evening. Fog developing late this evening. Low 6. Sunday: Fog dissipating late in the morning then mainly cloudy. Clearing near noon. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Fog developing near midnight. Low plus 5. Monday: Fog. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Rain. High 15. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 8. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 14. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 9. Thursday: Rain. High 12. Thursday night: Rain. Low 7. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    9.0° C
    -0.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.87 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 3.2 km/h
    Humidity
    94 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    9.0° C
    Heat Index
    9.0° C
    Dewpoint
    8.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 22:40:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:14
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (88% full)
    Civil Set
    18:52
    Day Length
    13:03:57
    Day High
    18.4° C @ 15:19 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.56 kPa @ 02:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.85 kPa @ 18:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    18.4° C @ 15:19 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 11.2km/h @ 15:35 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    589W/m2 @ 13:29 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.5 @ 12:35 Tdy.

For the first time in a while we have what could actually be described as a normal span of spring (even though it’s technically still not spring) weather on tap.

In case you’re wondering, the first day of Spring is Friday, March 20th at 3:46PM (click for a countdown!).

We have a couple systems coming our way this week.  You can see them below:

pcp3.33.0000
This image is for Tuesday 2AM showing the first system approaching for Tuesday afternoon.

 

 

Showers from the first system should start around 2PM on Tuesday.

pcp3.45.0000

Showers will continue through early Wednesday morning.  There will be a bit of a break on Wednesday before a more intense front sweeps in Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.

pcp3.78.0000

 

pcp3.84.0000-2

Precipitation totals from the Tuesday showers should be negligeable.

Totals from the Thursday morning event should be significant if these model runs validate.  Right now we could have totals over 2 days, Wednesday 5PM to Friday 5PM of up to 60mm.

wa_pcp48.120.0000-2
48hours between Wednesday/Friday afternoon. Green=30mm pink=60mm.

 

That is not enough for warning criteria, but it will feel like a lot because we’ve had so little over the past few months.

No Snow for the mountains

It will only feel cooler because we have been so far above normal over the past few weeks.  It will actually be close to seasonal temperatures (max 10ºC) and as such, no snow is forecast to fall in the high or low elevations on the South Island.

The snowpack monitor at Jump Creek for the South Island remains at zero.

spd3b23p-6

The graph shows the minimum that was recorded (it does not state the year but the record goes back to 1995).  While it is still possible that we may get a very late snowfall to at least put a little bit of snow into the reserves, with the continuing very warm sea surface temperatures off our coast, and the continued forecasts for above normal temperatures and dry conditions, I think we have a greater than 50% chance of seeing zero snowpack for this winter season at the South Island station.

That would obviously be a record, and it would present very serious challenges to our neighbours on the South and East Coast of the Island if, as predicted, we have a warm and dry summer as well.