May and Spring 2024 – No historic heat but a 10 year drought.
Spring Average Minimum Temperatures in Port Alberni since 1895 as of 2024 - Above Average
The Drought that never ended.
I just published the April stats as well. And now here comes May and Spring! While it might not have felt like it, and the start of June has been a little soggy, May was actually another notably dry month compared to average.
We only received half the normal amount of rain. We had a near normal number of days with rain, but those days were very light. We only had 2 days with more than 5 mm and none with more than 10 or 25mm. Normally we would get 6 days with more than 5, 2 days with more than 10 and every three years we should get a day with more than 25 mm.
We haven’t had a day in May of rain with more than 25mm for more than 10 years – since May 15, 2011.
The Podcast of this May and Spring Summary
You’ll be able to see more podcasts at: youtube.com/@alberniweather/podcasts. Hit Subscribe there to be notified.
Where did we end for Snowpack?
To quote the May 1st Snow and Water Supply Bulletin:
“As of May 1st, the provincial snowpack is extremely low, averaging 66% of normal across B.C. Last year, the provincial average was 91%”
This is the same starting statement as April.
Vancouver Island was at 49% of normal on May 1 and as of June 1 we are still at 50%.
A tiny snow recovery
That said, the good news is after a very warm start to May, it ended cool. And that allowed the snow to stay a little longer than we might have anticipated. As a result, we are currently a little above where we were last year for snowpack across the province. Still not up to average (white line below) but at least out of the red.
Hopefully the cool start to June helped a little too.
Those Aurora! May 10-11
Check out the post from the night of the most impressive aurora I’ve ever seen in my life here in Port Alberni.
How did Port Alberni Do for temperature, rain?
No records - but still not normal
We’ve had a few months now where we haven’t broken many records. May continued that trend. The Airport only set one new daily record on May 2 with a low of -0.9ºC but it was nowhere near the all time record for the day of -3.3ºC.
Similarly, this Spring was not hugely notable. Any other year it would have been fairly average but there is a very clear trend since the 1960s of warming, and a less clear trend, perhaps since 2000, of falling rainfall. You can see the warming trend in all of the graphs, below is the overall average (mean) temperatures for Spring.
You can see the clear slant of the top graph starting about half way (1960). Even taking away the extreme coldest spring, 1954, (which is well supported, all three stations recording at the time saw the same big drop in temperature), there is still a pronounced trend higher from 1960 onward. All stations at all locations show higher highs and higher lows.
Rainfall, the lower graph, is much harder to see a pattern, but it does seem as though there was a peak between about 1995 and 2005 with very high totals for springtime rain and since then we have seen lower values.
In fact, if we look at Robertson Creek station, which is the ‘rainiest’ station in the Valley to see how Springs have been long term, we see that this has been the driest stretch of 10 years for Spring of the past 60 years.
10 Year Periods with less than 400mm of rain for Spring (March/April/May):
- 2015-2024: 7 of 10
- 2005-2014: 3 of 10
- 1995-2004: 5 of 10
- 1985-1994: 4 of 10
- 1975-1984: 6 of 10
- 1965-1974: 3 of 10
We may already be into La Niña
From the latest (May 9) forecast update it looks like El Niño was pretty short this time and the transition to La Niña is ongoing.
“The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which suggests La Niña could form as early as June-August 2024, with higher confidence of La Niña during the following seasons. La Niña generally tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely in the next month. La Niña may develop in June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance; [Fig. 7]).”
For the summer, I would not expect any large influences one or or another. It takes times for these changes to feedback into the system here. But I would consider the top “December-February” impacts for the September to December this year. Could we see a ‘cool and wet’ La Niña influenced fall?
That’s all for this month! Enjoy the timelapses and stats below!
The Monthly Timelapses
For the first time, we have 3 timelapses! (North)East, South and West!
I’ve created a Youtube Playlist for Monthly Timelapses so they are easy to find. You can check out the live webcam here and daily and hourly timelapses.
Next month we should have three views to see on the timelapse! Exciting times!
That’s all for March 2024! Thanks for stopping by!
Airport Daily Records Set this Month
Set at Airport* since 1994 and compared to Valley stations** for all time.
(since 1895 for rain, 1900 for temperatures, 1980 for snow on ground)
Only one new mark was set. A quiet month.
- May 2 – Low Temp -0.9º C – All Time is -3.3º C at Beaver Creek in 1944
Graphs from Historical Alberni Valley Weather Stations
May 2024
Latest values on the far right, click to enlarge/download.
Spring 2024 Graphs
May City Values Compared to Normal
| Extreme (ºC) | Average (ºC) | (mm) | Wind (kph) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Max | Min | Min | Mean | Max | Rain | Dir | Speed | Day |
| Alberniweather | 31.4 | 1.9 | 7.3 | 13.6 | 21.0 | 33.0 | SE | 46.7 | 16 |
| Dave’s (Uptown) | 31.9 | 2.4 | 7.5 | 13.4 | 20.2 |
41.5 |
NA | NA | NA |
| Nick’s (South Port) | 27.6 | 2.6 | 7.4 | 12.6 | 18.5 | 32.2 | NA | NA | NA |
| Kitsuksis (North Port) | 31.6 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 12.7 | 19.5 | 38.9 | NA | NA | NA |
| Alberni Elem | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Maquinna Elem | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Extreme (ºC) | Average (ºC) | Average (mm) | Ext. Wind (kph) | ||||||
| Max | Min | Min | Mean | Max | Rain | Dir | Speed | Day | |
| Combined City Averages | 31.9 | 1.2 | 7.2 | 13.1 | 19.8 | 36.4 | SE | 46.7 | 16 |
| Normal (Somass) 1971-2000 |
5.6 | 11.7 | 17.7 | 75.0 | |||||
| Difference from Normal | +1.6 | +1.4 | +2.1 | -38.6 (48.5%) |
|||||
|
Extreme Day |
34.1 | -2.8 | 49.2 | 50 | |||||
| Max | Min | Min | Mean | Max | Rain (mm) | Dir | Speed | Day | |
| Extreme (ºC) | Average (ºC) | Wind (kph) | |||||||
| Days of Rain | >=0.2 mm | >=5 mm | >=10 mm | >=25 mm | |||||
| Normal | 14.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.33 | |||||
| This Month (Alberniweather) |
13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |||||
Please shift your phone to landscape/horizontal to see the table.
Official May Airport and Robertson Creek Environment Canada Stations Compared to Normal
Please shift your phone to landscape/horizontal to see the table.
| Extreme (ºC) | Average (ºC) | (mm) | Wind (kph) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Max | Min | Min | Mean | Max | Precip | Dir | Speed | Day |
| 30.1 | -1.1 | 5.1 | 12.1 | 19.0 | 27.3 | SSW | 40 | 16 | |
|
Robertson Creek |
30.0 | -1.0 | 5.9 | 12.7 | 19.5 | 47.8 | NA | ||
| Normal (Robertson Creek) 1971-2000 |
5.5 | 11.9 | 18.3 | 83.9 | |||||
| Difference from Normal (from Airport) |
-0.4 | +0.2 | +0.7 | -56.6 (32.5%) |
|||||
|
Extreme Day |
35.0 | -2.2 | 68.8 | NA | |||||
| Max | Min | Min | Mean | Max | Rain (mm) | Dir | Speed | Day | |
| *New Extreme for Month | |||||||||
| Days of Precipitation | >=0.2 mm | >=5 mm | >=10 mm | >=25 mm | |||||
|
Normal |
14.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.4 | |||||
| This Month (Airport) |
12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |||||
This Spring's Values Compared to Normal
Please shift your phone to landscape/horizontal to see the table.
These values are compiled in my own spreadsheet containing all ECCC stations data.
| Extreme (ºC) | Average (ºC) | Total (mm) | Wind | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Max | Min | Min | Mean | Max | Precip | |||
| Port Alberni Airport | 12.8 | -13.6 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 793.8 | |||
| Alberniweather | 15.1 | -3.9 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 685.9 | |||
| Extreme (ºC) | Average (ºC) | Total (mm) | Ext. Wind (kph) | ||||||
| Max | Min | Min | Mean | Max | Precipitation | Dir | Speed | Day | |
| Normal (Robertson Creek) 1971-2000 |
-0.9 | 1.9 | 8.1 | 924.1 | |||||
| Difference from Normal (at Airport) | +2.0 | +1.9 | -1.6 | -130.3 (85.9%) |
|||||
|
Extreme Day |
16.7 | -22.2 | 127.5 | 43 | |||||
| Max | Min | Min | Mean | Max | Precipitation (mm) | Dir | Speed | Day | |
| Extreme (ºC) | Average (ºC) | Wind (kph) | |||||||
| Days of Precipitation | >=0.2 mm | >=5 mm | >=10 mm | >=25 mm | |||||
| Normal | 59.1 | 37.6 | 28.3 | 13.1 | |||||
| This Month (Airport) |
57 | 31 | 22 | 7 | |||||
* May have used backup Environment Canada Data source at WeatherStats.ca for Missing Data
** Short Term means since 1994 at the new AVRA Airport. Airport Records are compared to the 30+ year weather stations of record since 1900 (1895 for rain) at Beaver Creek, Port Alberni “City” and Robertson Creek. Note that records pre 1950 may be more likely to over-estimate high temperatures.
About The Author
![[Fig. 7]](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/figure07.gif){kind=link}