Updated Wednesday June 26 – Canada Day Weekend – Day by Day Forecast – Rain, Tarps and Safe Campfires


The picture is clearing, and it looks a little soggy, but not a write-off. Deploy Tarps!

Pinning it down? Maybe not.

(I’ve updated this as of June 26th — it’s a little better, lighter rain, but not a massive change)

It seems like every time I look at the forecast for the long weekend it has changed. Now that we are within the week though, I think we can be pretty confident that things won’t change too much so here’s a day-by-day starting with Thursday.

I will change/update these in the coming days if I notice any major flip/flops but I think it’s solid. I may also make a Youtube version tomorrow with any updates.

Thursday mostly Dry but remnants of Wednesday Rain

The rain will roll onto the Island late Wednesday morning.

The three hour picture from 8AM-11AM Wednesday morning shows strong rain moving in from the West

By Thursday morning, the 24hr rainfall accumulation should be the most we have seen for the entire month of June with up to 20mm 10mm in Port Alberni and 20mm Courtenay/Campbell River and the West Coast, more than 60mm 25mm in the mountains of the North Island and northern West Coast 10mm 5mm in Nanaimo, Duncan and Lake Cowichan. See below:

The good news is most people don’t start travelling until Thursday and Thursday itself looks mostly dry. Here is the much drier picture for the Thursday 5AM – Friday 5AM period! The system is expected to take a little longer to move east, which is why the South Island has a little more. Expect rain to stop by afternoon.

the 24hr period between Thursday and Friday 5AM shows mostly dry conditions.

For the most part the Island will be dry and there may be some sunny breaks Thursday afternoon. If you’re headed to the Interior of BC you might be chasing the rain!

Friday – Dry but rain comes overnight – Light the Campfire!

Friday looks pretty good. It will be dry across the Island until the next rain system creeps onto the north end and West Coast Friday night. Below is the 5-8PM picture on Friday showing the moisture coming in.

Get those tarps ready and make sure they’re tied down, it might be windy!

Showing a band of moisture curling onto Vancouver Island in the 5-8PM period of Friday

Saturday – Sleep in and listen to the rain?

Yikes. The 2AM-5AM picture shows rain across most of the Island. Heaviest in Bamfield, Ucluelet and Port Alberni.

The new forecast has the rain staying mostly on the North Island and it is lighter than originally predicted.

A strong band of moisture lays across the north Island on Saturday between 2AM and 5AM

Expect Saturday to be raining throughout. Stay warm, keep that tarp tied down because it might be a little blustery depending on where your campsite is. Go for a swim in the lake, the water always feels warmer when it rains!

The 24hr period between 5AM Saturday and 5AM Sunday shows large rain accumulations between 5-10mm around the north and central Vancouver Island area.

Sunday break – Scattered showers

The good news is that the system will quickly move out Saturday night and Sunday will dry up for a nice break and warmer temperatures should be over 20ºC. The 24hr shot for 5AM Sunday to 5AM Monday shows a few patches of light rain but these will all happen before noon Sunday as the last remnants move East.

24hr pictures shows strong rainfall in the mountains of the Coastal Ranges and Interior but the Island has only patches of light rain up to 1mm except near Sayward.

Monday Sunshine Freedom!

It continues to dry up on Monday and we should see some sunshine and temperatures up to 25ºC if we’re lucky! The picture below shows most of the moisture has gone far to the East.

If you’re taking an extra day or two, Tuesday and Wednesday next week look quite nice! Just missed the weekend, but hey, we can’t win them all!

Happy belated Indigenous People’s Day for last Friday and Happy Canada Day for the weekend. May your campfires stay safely lit, your pans sizzling, and your sleeping bags dry!

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