June 2016 Summary – Decidedly cooler but still all time record heat. Warmer times on the way.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 February 2018 - Saturday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of rain showers early this evening. Rain showers beginning this evening changing to flurries near midnight. Snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm except 10 cm over southern sections. Low minus 2. Sunday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of flurries early in the morning. Clearing late in the afternoon. High zero. Sunday night: Clear. Low minus 9. Monday: Sunny. High plus 1. Monday night: Clear. Low minus 8. Tuesday: Cloudy. High plus 3. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Low minus 3. Wednesday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High plus 4. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 1. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High plus 5. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 1. Friday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 6.

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It felt a lot cooler, but it wasn’t cold, or wet.

Compared to last June’s insane heat and last springs terrible drought, this past June might have felt positively frigid and soaked.  However, the data shows that we were still slightly above normal for temperatures.  We even set an all time record high temperature on the 5th.  We also set two new low temperature records for the Airport, but they were far from the All Times for those dates.

We managed to tally only 40% of the normal precipitation at the Airport.  We would have had to get 32mm more rain in order to achieve normal rainfall totals.

The long range forecasts are interesting.  We should be getting sunnier and warmer through the next few weeks and the monthly and seasonal models are backing off La Niña and going more towards Neutral conditions.  We get our first look at the Winter forecast from those models as well.

Be sure to check out all the details below.

Enjoy the post and the have a great weekend!


Drought Conditions Continue on South/East Island.

Here is a snapshot of the streamflows on the Island right now.

Screen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.24.50 PM Screen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.24.59 PM

The East and South Island remain in Level 4 Drought conditions.

Screen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.32.09 PM

 


Wildfire Situation

Here is the current BC map as of July 8.  Check it out compared to the 1st of July last year.  What a difference!

dr-7

dr-4

 

The current  National Map as of July 8 is mostly looking pretty good though I worry a little bit about that Extreme zone in the Northwest Territories.

fdr20160708

 


16 day Outlook — Gradually warming and dry.

Here are the 16-day GEPS consensus graphs from SpotX.  It is generally positive for summer weather.  The temperatures have a slight higher trend.  After this weekend, there is very little rain predicted and winds are generally calm and clouds below 50% which should all mean sunnier skies for the majority of the rest of the month!

Screen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.39.17 PMScreen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.39.24 PMScreen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.39.31 PMScreen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.39.43 PMScreen Shot 2016-07-08 at 1.39.49 PM


El Niño Discussion from June 9: (new forecast expected next week)

Here is the latest El Niño status bulletin from the NOAA

La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.

Most models predict the end of El Niño and a brief period of ENSO-neutral by early Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). The model consensus then calls for increasingly negative SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region as the summer and fall progress. However, there is clear uncertainty over the timing and intensity of a potential La Niña (3-month Niño-3.4 SST less than or equal to -0.5°C).

“There is clear uncertainty”.  Oh scientists, you crazy!  In other words, they are quite confident there will be a La Niña event but the exact timing and strength of it is still yet to be determined.  Stay tuned!

Three-Month Forecasts 

North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 3-month Temperature, Precipitation and Sea Surface Temperature.

The Temperature anomaly for the next 3 months. The model just updated today for July so we can look out to the August/September/October timeframe.  We can see generally warmer than normal conditions.

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1-6

This as opposed to the May run that showed June/July/August slightly less warmer than normal except in Ontario. Which is what we have seen pan out.

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1-5

Here is the Precipitation Forecast for the next three months.  Similar to the temperature predictions, the models are staying pretty consistent with the precipitation predictions as well as we move into the late summer/early fall months with near normal precipitation across all of Canada.

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season1-7

However notice the greatest change is in Southern Ontario.  The May model below predicted slightly above average rainfall.  That has not happened. Quite the opposite in fact.  The fact the July model has pulled back to ‘normal’ conditions could be seen as either a reaction to that dry spell or a good sign that rains will still come. Lets hope they do.

NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season1-5

 

Global seasonal forecasts

Global Temp and Precip Spring, Summer, Fall and/or Winter forecast from current and last month runs. Only 1 of 2 seasons are within the forecasts in any given month.

This months forecasts: Summer 2016 and Fall 2016

Summer 2016:

Here was May’s prediction for the global Northern Hemisphere summer. Since we are into July, there is no three-year period for Summer available now.

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_season1
Summer (June, July, August) Temperature current month forecast
NMME_ensemble_prate_season1
Summer (June, July, August) Temperature current month forecast

Autumn 2016:

The new run for the Northern Hemisphere Autumn period is interesting.  Two main features stand out.  The cool waters of La Niña along the equator are not as pronounced as the previous prediction in May.  In fact there is less ‘cooler than normal’ forecasts across the globe.  The most noted change to the hotter side though is close to home in the North Pacific and Alaska which will have implications for our weather.  What implications I do not know but seeing as that is where our weather directly originates, it will affect us.

On the precipitation front globally, the West Pacific (Philippines, Indonesia, etc) are predicted to have drier autumn than thought before.  The changes elsewhere compared to last months forecast are not significant.

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_season2-5
Fall (September, October, November) Temperature and Precip (below) current month forecast

NMME_ensemble_prate_season2-4

Winter 2016

Our first look at Winter 2016 has our part of the world warmer than normal but Eastern Canada looking particularly warm.  La Niña does not look too intense.  Precipitation is near to slightly above normal in our area and below normal in the West Pacific.

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_season5-3 NMME_ensemble_prate_season5-4

Sea Surface Temperature next 3 months

Sea Surface anomalies show heat cold heat anomalies disappearing in the Central north Pacific and building hotter in the North Pacific particularly in the Gulf of Alaska.  Could this be a return of “the Blob”?

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season1-7

Last months’ forecasts.

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season1-6

That’s it!


Monthly Timelapse Video

Monthly video unavailable see all days here:
https://www.youtube.com/user/alberniweather/videos


Daily records set this month at the Airport (and compared to other stations* for “All Time” since 1900)

One new ALL TIME RECORD high temp, one rain and two lows.

*Short Term (since 1995) Airport Records are compared to the 30+ year weather stations of record since 1900 (1895 for rain) at Beaver Creek, Port Alberni “City” and Robertson Creek.  Note that records pre 1950 may be more likely to over-estimate high temperatures.


JUNE 2016  Minimum, Mean, and High Average Temp and Total Precipitation

See last month’s and last June’s summary.

Alberniweather10.9º C, 16.1° C, 21.8º C13.7 mm
Alberni Elem. School : 11.3º C, 16.3º C, 22.1° C, 35.8 mm
Maquinna Elem. School11.1º C, 16.0º C, 22.1° C, 34.5 mm
Neptune Canada Station11.6º C, 16.3º C, 22.7° C, NA
Nick’s Station (Maquinna area): 11.1º C, 16.1º C, 22.1° C, 36.2 mm
Overall City Average: 11.2º C, 16.2º C, 22.2º C30.1 mm
Environment Canada Airport* : 9.3º C, 16.0° C, 22.6º C38.6 mm

1981-2010 Normal (Rbrstn Creek)9.0º C, 15.5º C, 21.9° C62.2 mm


Differences from Normal

City Temperatures:
+2.2° C, +0.7º C, +0.3º C
Official Temperatures:
 +0.3º C, +0.5º C, +0.7º C
City Precipitation:
 -32.1 mm (48.3% of normal)
Official Precipitation
 -23.6 mm (62.1% of normal)


Days of Precipitation for June 2016*

Amount : Normal Days : Days This Month
>= 0.2 mm: 13.2 :  10*
>= 5 mm:  4.2 : 1
>= 10 mm: 1.7 : 0
>= 25 mm: 0.36 : 0

* 19th day missing from Airport Record.  Other stations recorded <1mm.


Comparison to recent months of June at Alberniweather

  • 2015: Hot and very dry. See June 2015 Summary Here .
  • 2014: Similar temps and rain. See the June 2014 Summary Here.
  • 2013: Similar temps but very rainy (200+mm).
  • 2012: Much cooler and very rainy (200+mm).
  • 2011: Cooler and  above average rain in 2011.
  • 2010: Much cooler and above average rain (100mm) in 2010.
  • 2009: Warmer and a little wetter in 2009.
  • 2008: Overall cooler average rain in 2008.
  • 2007: Similar to slightly cooler in 2007 but rainier (200mm).
  • 2006: Higher highs in 2006, overall warmer. Above normal rain.