Tue. Oct 16th, 2018

Warning: Extreme Heat possible next week.

Update 2PM: Special Weather Statement Issued by EC:

1:52 PM PDT Friday 15 June 2018
Special weather statement in effect for:

  • Inland Vancouver Island

Major Shift in the Weather Pattern will Bring the First Heat Wave of the Season…

Beginning on Saturday, the cool showery weather pattern that has been affecting BC for the last couple weeks will start to give way to a strong and persistent ridge of high pressure. By Sunday, temperatures away from the immediate coast will start to peak into the low thirties. The ridge (and high temperatures) will push into the Interior by early next week, eventually affecting most of BC.

Indications are that this pattern will persist until at least the middle of next week… if not longer.

The first official day of summer isn’t for another week (Thursday June 21 at 3AM our time) but we’re about to get a head start after what has seemed like a pretty cold and dreary first half of June.

Today’s cool morning cloud should burn off pretty quickly and reveal bright sunshine and warm temperatures around 20-22ºC.

Environment Canada is predicting some possible thunderstorm activity for the region on Friday afternoon and into Saturday morning but the UWash model does not see anything… I would not expect anything like we saw last weekend.

My greater concern is heat.

Below are two 10 day forecasts.  The top is from the Canadian model, the bottom is from the US model.  Both predict a peak in temperatures on Wednesday, but the question is, how hot.

The Canadian predicts we top out at 30ºC temperatures with a possible feels-like temp of almost 34ºC.

The US model predicts we top out at 35ºC temperatures with a possible feels-like temp of over 40ºC.

Given that Environment Canada is already predicting highs of 36 on Monday, I think we could be at the higher end of those two possibilities, though I think a feels like humidity related value of 40 is very unlikely.  Standard temperatures of 35ºC (95ºF) or more are still potential dangerous for people.

EC’s predictions are for us to hit above 30 on Sunday, and the UWash model below, which is generally the most accurate on short term forecasts, agrees with temperatures just below 30ºC on Saturday.

On Father’s Day Sunday UWash predicts temperatures between 31-33ºC.

UWash expects 30ºC weather to continue until breaking on Thursday but there is some disagreement on that timing so I’ll leave it until Monday before looking at that again.

The main message here is to prepare for extreme heat. We have had so much cool weather that it might feel extra hot as we get accustomed to it.  So take care out there. Get lots of sunscreen, wear a hat, and drink a ton of water.  Take advantage of the City spray parks!