Sat. Oct 20th, 2018

Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast! Oho flyby – Rain likely less than expected – Windy Coast.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - FOG ADVISORY , Port Alberni
    Issued: 4:19 PM PDT Friday 19 October 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 19 October 2018 - Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog developing this evening. Low 6. Saturday: Fog dissipating in the morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 17. UV index 3 or moderate. Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Fog developing near midnight. Low plus 4. Sunday: Fog. High 20. Sunday night: Fog. Low 6. Monday: Fog. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy. Low 9. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 14. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 9. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 13. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 8. Thursday: Rain. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    8.8° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.55 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    ENE 0.3 km/h
    gusting 3.2 km/h
    Humidity
    96 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    8.8° C
    Heat Index
    8.8° C
    Dewpoint
    8.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 3:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:14
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (82% full)
    Civil Set
    18:52
    Day Length
    13:03:57
    Day High
    8.8° C @ 02:44 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.56 kPa @ 02:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.52 kPa @ 02:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.8° C @ 02:44 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.7km/h @ 01:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

The remains of Hurricane Oho are making their way North.  Judging by the latest satellite pic, I think the former “core” of the storm is currently off of northern California and heading in our general direction pretty quickly. (See the arrow)  The moisture from the storm is very front end loaded and is already impacting the Central and North coast of BC.imageThe big Gulf of Alaska low is really what is driving the bus in terms of our weather and Oho’s end of life.

The current storm track from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for Oho below shows a more westerly and northerly route. The closest the core will come is several hundred kilometres west of the Island.

image

The Current Advisory states the hurricane is now transitioning from a “warm core” hurricane to a “cold core” extratropical low.  However, that does not mean we will not feel some impact.  That transition and its interaction with the big low in Alaska will cause the storms winds to expand in range.  As a result exposed sections of northern Vancouver Island will see winds in the 90-110kph tonight and tomorrow.

We should not see anything like that, in fact UWash has the central and south Island staying dry through the day Thursday with the main force of the rain hitting north of Tofino. We might get a few showers from it.

image

The rain will drape south by 5AM Friday morning and be strongest in the 5-8AM period.

image

That will not be the end of it. The rain and showers will linger all day Friday and continue into Saturday with a stronger pulse of rain coming Saturday afternoon in the 11AM-2PM period.

image

That will be the last gasp for any remnants of Oho and it will dry up Saturday evening.  There might be some gusty winds while that dries up,

Showers will return late Sunday and the strongest of the weekend are predicted to come Monday morning before sunrise.

image

This could bring us some more gusty winds but it should be very short lived as the front passes through before noon Monday.  We might even see some sunny breaks in the afternoon.

Total Accumulations of rain for the Thursday to Monday afternoon period:

  • UWash: 60mm
  • US GFS: 65mm
  • Cnd GEPS multi: 140mm
  • Cdn GEM: 140mm

That is quite a split but I would personally lay my bets on the UWash/GFS predictions. I will update that list and any graphics on this page if they change significantly.  Otherwise, this will be you Thanksgiving weekend forecast, hope you have a great one.