Sun. Feb 17th, 2019

Aloha Oho – Ex-Hurricane delivers up to 150mm by Thanksgiving Monday?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Sunday 17 February 2019 - Sunday: Clearing this morning. Fog patches dissipating this morning. High plus 5. UV index 2 or low. Sunday night: A few clouds. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 4. Wind chill minus 6 overnight. Monday: Increasing cloudiness. High plus 3. UV index 2 or low. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low minus 1. Tuesday: Flurries or rain showers. High plus 5. Tuesday night: Periods of snow. Low minus 3. Wednesday: Sunny. High 6. Wednesday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Thursday: Sunny. High 6. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 1. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High plus 5. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low zero. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High 6.

  • Current Conditions
    -0.4° C
    0.6 ° C/hr
    102.31 kPa
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    -0.4° C
    Heat Index
    -0.4° C
    -0.6° C
    132 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:40:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (95% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    0.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    -1.2° C @ 05:48 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    102.31 kPa @ 09:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.51 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -1.2° C @ 05:48 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    0.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.5km/h @ 04:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    174W/m2 @ 09:13 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.6 @ 09:12 Tdy.

Looks like we have another tropical river setting up and another ex-Hawaii Hurricane feeding moisture to us in the next few days including over Thanksgiving.

Hurricane Oho (NOAA Page here) is a Category 1 Hurricane currently losing steam near Hawaii.  The interesting part is it’s predicted path.  This is a 5 day track (to 2PM Sunday) as of this Tuesday evening.


The wind potential is not huge, but it is a very vigorous system as we can see from the UWash maps as it travels.  Below you see Wednesday 11PM (pink), Thursday 11PM and Friday 11AM as it travels up from the SouthWest.

pcp3.30.0000 pcp3.54.0000-2 pcp3.66.0000

If this track holds then rainfall will be lessened but still nothing to sneeze at. UWash is predicting up to 128mm between Wednesday morning and Monday afternoon.  The majority predicted for Sunday/Monday.

But there is not agreement of course.

Here is the Canadian Ten Day from SpotWx. 186mm, mostly Sunday.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.15.00 PM

The US GFS model is the least worrisome with only 80mm.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.17.06 PM

And the Canadian multi-model consensus is 137mm.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.18.24 PM

It all makes for a wet few days, but not necessarily of great concern.

Forecasts can certainly change however.  The ex-Hurricane’s path appears to be influenced by the large low near the Alaska Panhandle.  That low is what actually swings rain into us and the question is whether it swings Oho into us as well.

Will keep you posted.  I will try to push out the September Summary tomorrow so that that is out of the way before Thanksgiving.