Wed. Aug 22nd, 2018

Aloha Oho – Ex-Hurricane delivers up to 150mm by Thanksgiving Monday?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 9:31 PM PDT Tuesday 21 August 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 21 August 2018 - Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Widespread smoke. Low 12. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Widespread smoke becoming local smoke near noon. High 31. Humidex 34. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Local smoke. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 23. Thursday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 20. Saturday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 13. Sunday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 18. Sunday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    21.6° C
    -1.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.44 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    49 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    21.6° C
    Heat Index
    21.6° C
    Dewpoint
    10.4° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 22:25:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:44
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (85% full)
    Civil Set
    20:59
    Day Length
    13:22:16
    Day High
    33.3° C @ 16:03 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.6° C @ 06:16 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.91 kPa @ 08:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.39 kPa @ 17:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.6° C @ 06:16 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    33.3° C @ 16:03 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13.2km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    705W/m2 @ 14:18 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.7 @ 13:01 Tdy.

Looks like we have another tropical river setting up and another ex-Hawaii Hurricane feeding moisture to us in the next few days including over Thanksgiving.

Hurricane Oho (NOAA Page here) is a Category 1 Hurricane currently losing steam near Hawaii.  The interesting part is it’s predicted path.  This is a 5 day track (to 2PM Sunday) as of this Tuesday evening.

CP072015_PROB34_F120

The wind potential is not huge, but it is a very vigorous system as we can see from the UWash maps as it travels.  Below you see Wednesday 11PM (pink), Thursday 11PM and Friday 11AM as it travels up from the SouthWest.

pcp3.30.0000 pcp3.54.0000-2 pcp3.66.0000

If this track holds then rainfall will be lessened but still nothing to sneeze at. UWash is predicting up to 128mm between Wednesday morning and Monday afternoon.  The majority predicted for Sunday/Monday.

But there is not agreement of course.

Here is the Canadian Ten Day from SpotWx. 186mm, mostly Sunday.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.15.00 PM

The US GFS model is the least worrisome with only 80mm.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.17.06 PM

And the Canadian multi-model consensus is 137mm.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.18.24 PM

It all makes for a wet few days, but not necessarily of great concern.

Forecasts can certainly change however.  The ex-Hurricane’s path appears to be influenced by the large low near the Alaska Panhandle.  That low is what actually swings rain into us and the question is whether it swings Oho into us as well.

Will keep you posted.  I will try to push out the September Summary tomorrow so that that is out of the way before Thanksgiving.