Aloha Oho – Ex-Hurricane delivers up to 150mm by Thanksgiving Monday?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 24 May 2018 - Thursday night: A few clouds. Increasing cloudiness after midnight. Fog patches developing overnight. Low 8. Friday: Clearing in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 23. UV index 7 or high. Friday night: Clear. Increasing cloudiness overnight. Fog patches overnight. Low 8. Saturday: Sunny. High 22. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 26. Sunday night: Clear. Low 10. Monday: Sunny. High 30. Monday night: Clear. Low 11. Tuesday: Sunny. High 22. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 9. Wednesday: Sunny. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    21.4° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.54 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 17.4 km/h
    gusting 30.6 km/h
    Humidity
    53 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    21.4° C
    Heat Index
    21.4° C
    Dewpoint
    11.5° C
    UV
    3.8
    Solar
    796 W/m2
    Last Updated: 16:25:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:43
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (79% full)
    Civil Set
    21:49
    Day Length
    13:16:04
    Day High
    22.1° C @ 15:02 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.2° C @ 06:10 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.71 kPa @ 10:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.18 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.2° C @ 06:10 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    22.1° C @ 15:02 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 23.0km/h @ 16:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    990W/m2 @ 13:55 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.9 @ 13:08 Tdy.

Looks like we have another tropical river setting up and another ex-Hawaii Hurricane feeding moisture to us in the next few days including over Thanksgiving.

Hurricane Oho (NOAA Page here) is a Category 1 Hurricane currently losing steam near Hawaii.  The interesting part is it’s predicted path.  This is a 5 day track (to 2PM Sunday) as of this Tuesday evening.

CP072015_PROB34_F120

The wind potential is not huge, but it is a very vigorous system as we can see from the UWash maps as it travels.  Below you see Wednesday 11PM (pink), Thursday 11PM and Friday 11AM as it travels up from the SouthWest.

pcp3.30.0000 pcp3.54.0000-2 pcp3.66.0000

If this track holds then rainfall will be lessened but still nothing to sneeze at. UWash is predicting up to 128mm between Wednesday morning and Monday afternoon.  The majority predicted for Sunday/Monday.

But there is not agreement of course.

Here is the Canadian Ten Day from SpotWx. 186mm, mostly Sunday.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.15.00 PM

The US GFS model is the least worrisome with only 80mm.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.17.06 PM

And the Canadian multi-model consensus is 137mm.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.18.24 PM

It all makes for a wet few days, but not necessarily of great concern.

Forecasts can certainly change however.  The ex-Hurricane’s path appears to be influenced by the large low near the Alaska Panhandle.  That low is what actually swings rain into us and the question is whether it swings Oho into us as well.

Will keep you posted.  I will try to push out the September Summary tomorrow so that that is out of the way before Thanksgiving.