Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

Aloha Oho – Ex-Hurricane delivers up to 150mm by Thanksgiving Monday?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 November 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 4 overnight. Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. High 8. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 7. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    1.6° C
    -0.7 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.55 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    ENE 3.3 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    95 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    1.6° C
    Heat Index
    1.6° C
    Dewpoint
    0.8° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 21:35:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (74% full)
    Civil Set
    17:11
    Day Length
    12:04:14
    Day High
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.6° C @ 21:30 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.87 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.54 kPa @ 21:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -0.1° C @ 20:36 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.0km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    482W/m2 @ 12:21 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:59 Tdy.

Looks like we have another tropical river setting up and another ex-Hawaii Hurricane feeding moisture to us in the next few days including over Thanksgiving.

Hurricane Oho (NOAA Page here) is a Category 1 Hurricane currently losing steam near Hawaii.  The interesting part is it’s predicted path.  This is a 5 day track (to 2PM Sunday) as of this Tuesday evening.

CP072015_PROB34_F120

The wind potential is not huge, but it is a very vigorous system as we can see from the UWash maps as it travels.  Below you see Wednesday 11PM (pink), Thursday 11PM and Friday 11AM as it travels up from the SouthWest.

pcp3.30.0000 pcp3.54.0000-2 pcp3.66.0000

If this track holds then rainfall will be lessened but still nothing to sneeze at. UWash is predicting up to 128mm between Wednesday morning and Monday afternoon.  The majority predicted for Sunday/Monday.

But there is not agreement of course.

Here is the Canadian Ten Day from SpotWx. 186mm, mostly Sunday.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.15.00 PM

The US GFS model is the least worrisome with only 80mm.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.17.06 PM

And the Canadian multi-model consensus is 137mm.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.18.24 PM

It all makes for a wet few days, but not necessarily of great concern.

Forecasts can certainly change however.  The ex-Hurricane’s path appears to be influenced by the large low near the Alaska Panhandle.  That low is what actually swings rain into us and the question is whether it swings Oho into us as well.

Will keep you posted.  I will try to push out the September Summary tomorrow so that that is out of the way before Thanksgiving.