Sat. Aug 17th, 2019

Spotty snow today – when will it warm up?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 16 August 2019 - Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 15. Saturday: Mainly cloudy. High 24. Humidex 27. UV index 6 or high. Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Becoming cloudy overnight with 30 percent chance of drizzle before morning. Low 15. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with 40 percent chance of drizzle. High 23. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 24. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 14. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 14. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 20. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 12. Thursday: Sunny. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    17.1° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    101.53 kPa
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    84 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    17.1° C
    Heat Index
    17.1° C
    14.4° C
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 3:30:00 PDT
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  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (97% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    17.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    17.1° C @ 03:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    101.62 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.53 kPa @ 03:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    17.1° C @ 03:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3km/h @ 00:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

That is the question. When will it warm up enough that there is no threat of snow?

Well, clearly this morning it’s not warm enough because it was snowing as I stepped out the door (and sticking to the sidewalk). This seems to be how we often get through these events in the Valley. Our geography locks in the cool air and our habit of getting strong precipitation gives us the opportunity to have more of that precipitation fall as snow as the heavy rate drags down the temperature.

What I think we might be missing this time around, is the heavy rate. The system as it looks on satellite and is forecast in the models is looking pretty timid.

Take this morning’s precipitation charts:


Between 7-10AM it’s only showing at most 2mm of moisture at higher elevations around the region. This has caused and might cause more light snow to fall, but real accumulation seems unlikely, and once the sun rises it is unlikely to keep the temperature down much which might turn it to showers instead.

But don’t lose hope. Tomorrow morning looks a bit different.


We see double or more (4-8mm) today’s precipitation amounts over 3 hour periods lasting through the day, especially in the early morning and early evening.

As long as we stay below 2°C through the day and especially evening tonight then the rainfall should be able to drag that temperature down and give us wet, and accumulating, snow.

So expect some flurries this morning, but nothing to worry about. And tomorrow morning, I expect wet snow at times, amounting to 5cm or more the further you are from the Inlet or higher up you are.

By Thursday evening it is much more likely that we will be overcome by the warm winds of the pacific and be near 5C. So any snow on the ground may not last the night. That will be the end of the cold weather for now. We should get more rain, and temperatures around 5C Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday.

Still nearly two weeks until Christmas, a lot can change in that time. 🙂