Fri. Dec 13th, 2019

Rain is coming. How much is key.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Friday 13 December 2019 - Friday night: Mainly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low plus 1. Saturday: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High plus 4. Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing overnight. Low minus 1. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 3. Sunday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of snow. Low zero. Monday: Snow or rain. High plus 3. Monday night: Rain. Low plus 2. Tuesday: Rain. High plus 5. Tuesday night: Rain. Low plus 4. Wednesday: Rain. High 7. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Thursday: Rain. High 7.

  • Current Conditions
    5.1° C
    0.0 ° C/hr
    101.62 kPa
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.1° C
    Heat Index
    5.1° C
    4.9° C
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 20:35:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (95% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    5.7° C @ 15:24 Tdy.
    Day Low
    4.1° C @ 07:22 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    101.84 kPa @ 10:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.62 kPa @ 19:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    4.0° C @ 11:58 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    5.7° C @ 15:24 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 2km/h @ 12:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    91W/m2 @ 11:34 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.5 @ 11:23 Tdy.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be our last days of sun as the high pressure ridge finally breaks down. In its place we will be hit with our much more familiar train of Pacific Systems for at least a week.

The amount of actual rain we get is difficult to say up until the day it happens. The current forecast is calling for the first system to start on Friday morning, last 24 hours and steadily deliver 30mm. Not much, but a good start that should soak into the ground.

The second pulse is slated for Saturday night and looks to be much quicker, only 12 hours with about 20mm falling.

There is then a chance for showers over the next couple days until Tuesday. Not large amounts, but hopefully some.

The long range forecast has another pulse coming next Friday and then another on Tuesday the 23rd. The Tuesday one is probably the most interesting since it is looking like we might get our first bit of cold weather, with highs only up to around 5C between the 19th and 23rd.

On the record dryness: there is not enough rain in the forecast right now to avoid a record. We need 140mm to avoid beating the 1896 record. I see 100mm at most right now in the forecast out to the 25th. We will have another week after that to get the rest.

At this point, we probably have a 60% chance of breaking the July-October record dry period set in 1896.