September 19, 2020

Rain is coming. How much is key.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 18 September 2020 - Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Risk of a thunderstorm early this evening. Widespread smoke. Low 15. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Widespread smoke. High 21. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Widespread smoke. Low 13. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 22. Sunday night: Showers. Low 12. Monday: Cloudy. High 18. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 13. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 19. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Wednesday: Rain. High 17. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 13. Thursday: Rain. High 17.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be our last days of sun as the high pressure ridge finally breaks down. In its place we will be hit with our much more familiar train of Pacific Systems for at least a week.

The amount of actual rain we get is difficult to say up until the day it happens. The current forecast is calling for the first system to start on Friday morning, last 24 hours and steadily deliver 30mm. Not much, but a good start that should soak into the ground.

The second pulse is slated for Saturday night and looks to be much quicker, only 12 hours with about 20mm falling.

There is then a chance for showers over the next couple days until Tuesday. Not large amounts, but hopefully some.

The long range forecast has another pulse coming next Friday and then another on Tuesday the 23rd. The Tuesday one is probably the most interesting since it is looking like we might get our first bit of cold weather, with highs only up to around 5C between the 19th and 23rd.

On the record dryness: there is not enough rain in the forecast right now to avoid a record. We need 140mm to avoid beating the 1896 record. I see 100mm at most right now in the forecast out to the 25th. We will have another week after that to get the rest.

At this point, we probably have a 60% chance of breaking the July-October record dry period set in 1896.