July 10, 2020

A record Happy Thanksgiving! And the rain can’t come soon enough.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Friday 10 July 2020 - Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. UV index 9 or very high. Friday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers overnight. Low 12. Saturday: Showers. High 17. UV index 3 or moderate. Saturday night: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Sunday: Sunny. High 22. Sunday night: Cloudy. Low 12. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Tuesday: Cloudy. High 24. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 14. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 14. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

I hope you’ve enjoyed the fantastic and record breaking weather we’ve had over the weekend. We broke records on Friday, Saturday and Sunday for highs of the day. 25.5C yesterday was good enough for the Hot Spot in Canada.

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16 records were broken in BC yesterday. Our forecast of 24C should break another record today (20.6C) in Port Alberni.

It is not all good news out there though. There is a crisis brewing on Island Rivers. The Cowichan River is so low salmon cannot travel up from the sea so volunteers are trucking them to places with more water. Most incredible though was the front page of the Times Colonist on Saturday which had a picture of a bone dry Tahsis River. Unfortunately I can’t find the picture online, but the article is here.

There is good news in the forecast though. Yes it means the beautiful weather is about to end, but its time.

Here is the short term forecast:

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We should get around 40mm on Friday and Saturday which is going to feel like 200mm because it’s been so long.

Here is the Environment Canada image for the 12hr precipitation on Friday.

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We might get a 2nd shot on Monday and Tuesday, you can see the front lurking in the Pacific on the image above. That should give us another 30-50mm.

The Long Range forecast says we will only get 1 more shot of rain before we settle into another dry but noticeably cooler spell. Here is that forecast:

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And, long range can change…. But this has been consistent so is probable. Notice the temperatures are not exactly the same as what we have been enjoying. HIGHs of 8C? Icky. Sounds foggy. 🙂

Will we get enough rain to avoid setting a 114 year record for drought between July and October. If this forecast holds, I don’t think so. But let’s just hope we get enough to help the fish.

Update: we got our own blog post at Jim Andrews excellent global weather blog for crazy weather . He has some stats on how dry it has been 5-6% of normal since July in Vancouver, Nanaimo, and Victoria.

Happy Thanksgiving all!

Chris

1 thought on “A record Happy Thanksgiving! And the rain can’t come soon enough.

  1. It looks as though the GFS is still somewhat undecided this morning. It is showing a slow start to the rain with lesser amounts on Fri/Sat and most of it coming on Sunday instead.

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