October 26, 2020

Updated: Light brush with snow Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Monday 26 October 2020 - Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 10. UV index 3 or moderate. Monday night: Becoming cloudy this evening. 30 percent chance of showers overnight. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 11. UV index 1 or low. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low 8. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 13. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 10. Thursday: Rain. High 13. Thursday night: Rain. Low 10. Friday: Periods of rain. High 13. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 6. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 12. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 6. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 13.

Update 9:30AM: the morning UWash model is in and now agrees with the others that we could see up to 2.5cm of snow in the Valley. I’ve updated the last image accordingly. If you are going out to the west coast there is 5cm expected out there, so drive safely. Snow could fall as soon as twelve noon. I will have a full update late tonight after 9PM after the last model runs of the day to best timing possible.

We have some fog this morning which is a good indication that there is a little more moisture in the air today than there was yesterday. We should see a little sun but will eventually cloud over tonight as the small trough develops to the north of us and starts to slide down.

The models all agree most of the snow will be on the north Island from Courtenay north but we we should get brushed with the southern extremities of the system.

The latest NAM model shows it well. The snow should start after sundown.
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This mornings Canadian GEM model from spotwx.com shows just about 5cm accumulating, but I will be surprised if we achieve that.
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The most reliable model remains the UWash GFS. Here is the latest run, it shows 2.5cm for the Alberni Valley, though other regions, including the West Coast, are slated to get more like 5cm.
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Here is the full island you can see it focused on the West and North.

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There is a chance the deep Valley (Sommers Rd. And Comox Main) might get more since they are that much further north. Either way, Alberniweather HQ will be on the lookout on the lawn in central port alberni to declare a snow contest winner.

If you are driving , I would be very careful anywhere on Highway 4, either Sutton Pass or the Hump, and anywhere north of Parksville but possibly including Nanaimo.

Stay safe out there. Hopefully there is enough for the kids to play in. If there isn’t enough tomorrow. The end of the weekend and early next week continues to look snowier.

1 thought on “Updated: Light brush with snow Thursday

  1. Good call! This forecast from the NOAA puts the probability of at least 1″ (2cm) of snow for about 4am Friday at 40 to 50 % – higher for the lake and valley.

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