Mon. Jul 15th, 2019

Updated: Light brush with snow Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    19.3° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.65 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    89 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    19.3° C
    Heat Index
    19.3° C
    Dewpoint
    17.5° C
    UV
    0.6
    Solar
    123 W/m2
    Last Updated: 19:05:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    1.5 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:47
    Moon Phase
    Full (99% full)
    Civil Set
    22:01
    Day Length
    13:25:13
    Day High
    27.1° C @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.6° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    4.1mm/hr @ 17:06 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.81 kPa @ 00:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.51 kPa @ 14:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.6° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    27.2° C @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 20km/h @ 15:35 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1134W/m2 @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.8 @ 13:05 Tdy.

Update 9:30AM: the morning UWash model is in and now agrees with the others that we could see up to 2.5cm of snow in the Valley. I’ve updated the last image accordingly. If you are going out to the west coast there is 5cm expected out there, so drive safely. Snow could fall as soon as twelve noon. I will have a full update late tonight after 9PM after the last model runs of the day to best timing possible.

We have some fog this morning which is a good indication that there is a little more moisture in the air today than there was yesterday. We should see a little sun but will eventually cloud over tonight as the small trough develops to the north of us and starts to slide down.

The models all agree most of the snow will be on the north Island from Courtenay north but we we should get brushed with the southern extremities of the system.

The latest NAM model shows it well. The snow should start after sundown.
20131204-071255.jpg
This mornings Canadian GEM model from spotwx.com shows just about 5cm accumulating, but I will be surprised if we achieve that.
20131204-071306.jpg

The most reliable model remains the UWash GFS. Here is the latest run, it shows 2.5cm for the Alberni Valley, though other regions, including the West Coast, are slated to get more like 5cm.
20131204-091224.jpg

Here is the full island you can see it focused on the West and North.

20131204-092825.jpg

There is a chance the deep Valley (Sommers Rd. And Comox Main) might get more since they are that much further north. Either way, Alberniweather HQ will be on the lookout on the lawn in central port alberni to declare a snow contest winner.

If you are driving , I would be very careful anywhere on Highway 4, either Sutton Pass or the Hump, and anywhere north of Parksville but possibly including Nanaimo.

Stay safe out there. Hopefully there is enough for the kids to play in. If there isn’t enough tomorrow. The end of the weekend and early next week continues to look snowier.

1 thought on “Updated: Light brush with snow Thursday

  1. Good call! This forecast from the NOAA puts the probability of at least 1″ (2cm) of snow for about 4am Friday at 40 to 50 % – higher for the lake and valley.

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