Updated: Light brush with snow Thursday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Saturday 21 July 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Low 11. Sunday: Sunny. High 32. Humidex 34. UV index 8 or very high. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 34. Monday night: Clear. Low 14. Tuesday: Sunny. High 33. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 14. Wednesday: Sunny. High 32. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 14. Thursday: Sunny. High 28. Thursday night: Clear. Low 14. Friday: Sunny. High 27.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    25.3° C
    -0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.01 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 15.1 km/h
    gusting 22.5 km/h
    Humidity
    45 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    25.3° C
    Heat Index
    25.3° C
    Dewpoint
    12.5° C
    UV
    1.5
    Solar
    152 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:00:00 PDT
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  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.3 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (72% full)
    Civil Set
    21:54
    Day Length
    13:25:39
    Day High
    27.3° C @ 15:19 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.3° C @ 06:21 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.13 kPa @ 08:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.95 kPa @ 03:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.3° C @ 06:21 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    27.3° C @ 15:19 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 15.1km/h @ 18:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1062W/m2 @ 13:29 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.1 @ 13:26 Tdy.

Update 9:30AM: the morning UWash model is in and now agrees with the others that we could see up to 2.5cm of snow in the Valley. I’ve updated the last image accordingly. If you are going out to the west coast there is 5cm expected out there, so drive safely. Snow could fall as soon as twelve noon. I will have a full update late tonight after 9PM after the last model runs of the day to best timing possible.

We have some fog this morning which is a good indication that there is a little more moisture in the air today than there was yesterday. We should see a little sun but will eventually cloud over tonight as the small trough develops to the north of us and starts to slide down.

The models all agree most of the snow will be on the north Island from Courtenay north but we we should get brushed with the southern extremities of the system.

The latest NAM model shows it well. The snow should start after sundown.
20131204-071255.jpg
This mornings Canadian GEM model from spotwx.com shows just about 5cm accumulating, but I will be surprised if we achieve that.
20131204-071306.jpg

The most reliable model remains the UWash GFS. Here is the latest run, it shows 2.5cm for the Alberni Valley, though other regions, including the West Coast, are slated to get more like 5cm.
20131204-091224.jpg

Here is the full island you can see it focused on the West and North.

20131204-092825.jpg

There is a chance the deep Valley (Sommers Rd. And Comox Main) might get more since they are that much further north. Either way, Alberniweather HQ will be on the lookout on the lawn in central port alberni to declare a snow contest winner.

If you are driving , I would be very careful anywhere on Highway 4, either Sutton Pass or the Hump, and anywhere north of Parksville but possibly including Nanaimo.

Stay safe out there. Hopefully there is enough for the kids to play in. If there isn’t enough tomorrow. The end of the weekend and early next week continues to look snowier.

One Reply to “Updated: Light brush with snow Thursday”

  1. Good call! This forecast from the NOAA puts the probability of at least 1″ (2cm) of snow for about 4am Friday at 40 to 50 % – higher for the lake and valley.

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