October 21, 2020

Frosty mornings – Snow should fly Thursday, weekend look.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Wednesday 21 October 2020 - Wednesday night: A few clouds. Fog patches developing late this evening. Low zero. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 9. UV index 2 or low. Thursday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning near midnight. Low plus 3. Friday: Rain. Windy. High 6. Friday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Saturday: Sunny. High plus 4. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 3. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 9. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 1. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 9. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 4. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 10.

As was previously thought, the south and east island did get some snow and flurries last night. The most I’ve heard for accumulation was around 2cm. Mostly it just made for a nasty drive for some folks along Highway 1 between Ladysmith, the Malahat and Victoria.

Our turn is coming.

As snow is also finicky, the forecasts below will likely change. But with the threat of snow only two days away, I want to give a first look at what things might look like so you can plan accordingly. At this point, I’d say it is 80% guaranteed that we will have snow Thursday.
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Above is a 24hr snow accumulation map for Thursday. It is showing that between 4AM Thursday and Friday,we can expect as much as 5cm (2in) of snow. The main focus of the precipitation is on the North Island as the system will be sweeping down from the North East, so we will be on the southern edge of the system. You can see points south of the Malahat look to be protected.

Looking a little closer below, the snow is slated to start around noon on Thursday with accumulations of 1cm (0.5in) by 1PM.
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Light snow should fall on and off through the afternoon and evening of Thursday. The largest accumulation should come around dinner time. The map below shows a solid 3cm (1in) for the Valley.
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As I said, this is our first look at this. I am quite confident we will receive snow on the ground. Amazingly, we have no guesses in the snow contest for Thursday! Our closest guesses are Tuesday and Saturday, so if we do get snow,I’m going to be doing some math to figure out who is closest.

I will update the forecast on Facebook and twitter today (links at the top) and on the website if anything really major happens between today and tomorrow morning. Until tomorrow I will leave you with this glimpse of the insanity that the models are doling out next week. Don’t expect it to happen, but it’s a fun thought.
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Sunday-Tuesday: 40cm/16in whoa.

4 thoughts on “Frosty mornings – Snow should fly Thursday, weekend look.

  1. I’ve been using the SpotWX website you found Chris – all the models in one place and easy to read! You’re right, some say up to 40 cm, but I take that with a grain of salt, as most are more moderate. I think it’s fair to say that we will see some white stuff on the ground this week though:

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