The forecast has not changed. We will remain dry through the weekend. It will cool slightly to temperatures below 30°C but still remain very pleasant.
The fire danger remains at High and is expected to stay there for the forseeable future.
Arctic Ice Drops to 2nd Lowest.
After a couple years of recovery after its massive drop in 2012, this years Arctic melt season has been on a steady trip downward and current levels are now trending below the “recovery” levels, though still well above the historic 2012 melt season. The chart below is from the latest monthly report from the National Snow and Ice Data Centre at the University of Colorado which is the main headquarters for world ice research in the US. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Main points from the latest report are that the NorthEast Arctic sea passage over Russia is open once again. It opened for the first time in history just a few years ago and has been open most years since. The Canadian northwest passage with its tight island bound entrances has not opened this year but the southern “Amundsen” route may be passable.
The long term decline in seasonal Arctic ice continues. The graph below shows the September minimum as it marches toward zero at 13.3% per decade.
With current September minimums at arounf 5 million square kilometres, following that linear 13.3% decline would mean it would take many decades to reach zero. However, as we can see with the spikes downward in 2007 and again 2012, every once in a while, the Arctic can react very quickly. Dropping more than 20% in one year.
And we haven’t even started talking about El Niño… or the “blob”. More on those in a future post.