Mon. Jul 15th, 2019

Dry records avoided – Webcam back – Cool foggy week

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    19.3° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    101.65 kPa
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    89 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    19.3° C
    Heat Index
    19.3° C
    17.5° C
    123 W/m2
    Last Updated: 19:05:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    1.5 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Full (99% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    27.1° C @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.6° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    4.1mm/hr @ 17:06 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.81 kPa @ 00:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.51 kPa @ 14:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.6° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    27.2° C @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 20km/h @ 15:35 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1134W/m2 @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.8 @ 13:05 Tdy.

There was lots of fog this morning as I stepped out the door and we can probably expect it to stick around for most of the morning and possibly into the afternoon.

This will be the pattern for the week. There isn’t much more rain expected until the weekend.

Speaking of rain, I did some more digging over the weekend. What I found is that while 2012 still stands out as exceptionally dry July through September, our rain this October has put us well away from any records from July through October.

Here is the data: I looked for the years with the least rain between July and October from the main stations.


One thing I found satisfying was that where the City and Beaver Creek stations overlapped, they still agreed on their driest years, 1919, 1925 and 1936. 1925 was significantly different in the City than in Beaver Creek, but it was still among the driest years for both.

So the takeaway is that the three months July to end of September was the truly unusual stretch. With only 1896 showing that long of a dry stretch. But the rains this month have brought us back above the historic lows of the past.

Some more good news: you might notice that the Alberniweather webcam is back online! After being fed up with it for a while and then just not having time to fix it, I got it back up yesterday. Hopefully it lasts for awhile before dying again. It is frustrating when technology does not work because of poorly designed software.

The issue biting the camera is the Eyefi software ability to connect reliably to my wireless network and its ability to delete old images as it takes new ones to avoid filling up the card. I remain hopeful that in future the software will improve. Until then, I’ll keep it online as much as possible.

I also noted last week as I was driving over the Hump that there is what looks like a new electrical cabinet at the truck stop where the webcam usually is. Hopefully that means the webcam will return there soon and before the flakes fly on the Hump.

Oh and speaking of flakes flying: the winter forecasts are coming out now from the various agencies. They all agree that El Niño will have a very limited effect if it has any at all. So that means it is probably not going to be overly wet and warm. However, since there is no El Niño or La Niña to really drive things, the forecast becomes a little more uncertain. We will be at the mercy of shorter term and more variable patterns affecting the jet stream. I’m getting the feeling that we might see a little more snow at lower elevations than last year but that overall it will be relatively dry. We shall see.

Our first chance at snow might be Halloween, or maybe not… Hmmm… Maybe I should fire up the
2012 edition of the Snow Contest?