Sat. Jul 20th, 2019

Another decent day – Dry long forecast

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Saturday 20 July 2019 - Saturday: Sunny. High 28. UV index 7 or high. Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 7. Sunday: Mainly sunny. High 29. UV index 8 or very high. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Monday: Sunny. High 27. Monday night: Clear. Low 12. Tuesday: Sunny. High 25. Tuesday night: Increasing cloudiness. Low 13. Wednesday: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. High 21. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 12. Thursday: Sunny. High 23. Thursday night: Clear. Low 13. Friday: Sunny. High 24.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    9.7° C
    -0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.07 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    94 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    9.7° C
    Heat Index
    9.7° C
    Dewpoint
    8.7° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    35 W/m2
    Last Updated: 6:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    04:54
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (88% full)
    Civil Set
    21:55
    Day Length
    13:25:36
    Day High
    14.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.6° C @ 06:00 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.07 kPa @ 06:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.02 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    9.6° C @ 06:00 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    14.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    35W/m2 @ 06:14 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Was yesterday beautiful or what!? We reached a balmy 18C and stations all over Vancouver Island flirted with the hot spot for BC for the day. No records broken, it was just a very nice, normal spring day.

Today should be pretty good. The clouds should not thicken and threat of rain won’t come until later this afternoon. The showers will turn to rain and make for a pretty damp Thursday.

After that though, we are setting up for another beautiful weekend! So let’s hope for that!

Dry spring

Accuweather updated their long range forecasts yesterday and the end of April and through Mid May is looking nice… But dry.

20130417-075448.jpg

20130417-075510.jpg

I already detailed at the beginning of this month how dry March was around here.

Dr. Jeff Masters also noted the dryness and unusual cold across the United States this morning:

The temperature map is pretty impressive and shows just how cold everything East of the Rockies has been.. And our warmth.

20130417-075909.jpg

Why this strange pattern you ask? Dr Masters notes:

The pattern of warmth in the west and cool conditions in the east was due to the fact that the jet stream was stuck in a large loop that allowed cold air to spill out of Canada into the Southeast U.S., and warm air to flow northward over the southwestern states. We can describe the jet stream behavior using the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which is a measure of pressure patterns across the Arctic. During March 2013, the monthly-averaged AO index reached its most negative March value since records began in 1950.

What does that jet stream pattern look like? Back to Accuweather.

20130417-080210.jpg

…the March 2013 satellite measured temperatures anomalies for the lower troposphere, which clearly shows the well above normal temperatures over northeast Canada, which was under the upper high block and the sweep of colder than normal air being forced underneath the block from north-central Canada down to the eastern U.S. then over into northern Europe. It does not get much more pronounced than that!

And why is that Arctic Oscillation so strongly negative? Suspect #1: Arctic warmth and sea ice loss… Even now at the peak of the ice season, the ice remains extremely thin and fragile and large amounts of scientific resources are being thrown at this immediate mystery.