Tue. Oct 22nd, 2019

Another decent day – Dry long forecast

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 21 October 2019 - Monday night: Showers ending after midnight then clearing. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 8. Tuesday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 14. UV index 2 or low. Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing before morning. Low plus 3. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 12. Wednesday night: Cloudy. Low 6. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 14. Thursday night: Showers. Low 8. Friday: Periods of rain. High 14. Friday night: Clear. Low plus 3. Saturday: Sunny. High 12. Saturday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Sunday: Sunny. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    10.4° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.89 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 2 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    10.4° C
    Heat Index
    10.4° C
    Dewpoint
    10.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 1:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    07:17
    Moon Phase
    Waning crescent (41% full)
    Civil Set
    18:49
    Day Length
    13:03:39
    Day High
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    10.4° C @ 01:14 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.89 kPa @ 01:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.78 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    10.4° C @ 01:14 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 01:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Was yesterday beautiful or what!? We reached a balmy 18C and stations all over Vancouver Island flirted with the hot spot for BC for the day. No records broken, it was just a very nice, normal spring day.

Today should be pretty good. The clouds should not thicken and threat of rain won’t come until later this afternoon. The showers will turn to rain and make for a pretty damp Thursday.

After that though, we are setting up for another beautiful weekend! So let’s hope for that!

Dry spring

Accuweather updated their long range forecasts yesterday and the end of April and through Mid May is looking nice… But dry.

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I already detailed at the beginning of this month how dry March was around here.

Dr. Jeff Masters also noted the dryness and unusual cold across the United States this morning:

The temperature map is pretty impressive and shows just how cold everything East of the Rockies has been.. And our warmth.

20130417-075909.jpg

Why this strange pattern you ask? Dr Masters notes:

The pattern of warmth in the west and cool conditions in the east was due to the fact that the jet stream was stuck in a large loop that allowed cold air to spill out of Canada into the Southeast U.S., and warm air to flow northward over the southwestern states. We can describe the jet stream behavior using the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which is a measure of pressure patterns across the Arctic. During March 2013, the monthly-averaged AO index reached its most negative March value since records began in 1950.

What does that jet stream pattern look like? Back to Accuweather.

20130417-080210.jpg

…the March 2013 satellite measured temperatures anomalies for the lower troposphere, which clearly shows the well above normal temperatures over northeast Canada, which was under the upper high block and the sweep of colder than normal air being forced underneath the block from north-central Canada down to the eastern U.S. then over into northern Europe. It does not get much more pronounced than that!

And why is that Arctic Oscillation so strongly negative? Suspect #1: Arctic warmth and sea ice loss… Even now at the peak of the ice season, the ice remains extremely thin and fragile and large amounts of scientific resources are being thrown at this immediate mystery.