Light showers – Then Dry – Still no Snowpack now or later.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Sunday 22 April 2018 - Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Low plus 1. Monday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 18. UV index 5 or moderate. Monday night: Partly cloudy. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Cloudy. High 21. Tuesday night: Clear. Low plus 5. Wednesday: Sunny. High 24. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 6. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Clear. Low 7. Friday: Sunny. High 19. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    14.6° C
    -0.6 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.72 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NNE 9.7 km/h
    gusting 17.7 km/h
    Humidity
    45 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    14.6° C
    Heat Index
    14.6° C
    Dewpoint
    2.8° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    50 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:38
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (52% full)
    Civil Set
    20:58
    Day Length
    13:17:39
    Day High
    16.3° C @ 15:04 Tdy.
    Day Low
    2.0° C @ 04:45 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:05
    Day High Barometer
    103.17 kPa @ 08:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.72 kPa @ 18:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    2.0° C @ 04:45 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.3° C @ 15:04 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 12.4km/h @ 16:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    914W/m2 @ 13:31 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.7 @ 13:07 Tdy.

There could be some light showers falling anytime from 7AM to 11AM this morning and then again from around 1PM to sundown.

scattered and light showers this morning.
scattered and light showers this morning.

I would be surprised if we got more than 2mm of rain.

After that, the forecast is bone dry through the weekend and well into next week.

We should get back to sunny skies on Saturday, Sunday and Monday and likely into Tuesday and even Wednesday.

Screen Shot 2015-02-19 at 7.26.36 AM

 

Snowpack still Zero – Unlikely to Change Soon.

The snowpack on the South Island remains at zero. As you can see from the graph below, by this time last year – which also featured a very late start to the snow – we had one good dump of snow that allowed the snowpack to jump from zero to around 500mm of snow water equivalent or 50% of our average.

We have still not had any such snow events this year in the mountains or elsewhere, and so we remain at zero, which is worse than the “minimum” year recorded on the graph in red.

spd3b23p-2

The long range forecast out to March 6th shows the an average forecast from multiple models of only around 71mm of total precipitation to that date.

Screen Shot 2015-02-19 at 7.33.40 AMAverage temperatures in that period are hovering, at sea level in Port Alberni, around 5ºC.  Not really cool enough for snow to fall at even those higher elevations.

Screen Shot 2015-02-19 at 7.33.57 AM

I do notice though that in those ultra long time periods, the outlying models seem to be straying to the cold and wet side, so perhaps that is a hopeful sign.  But at this point, that is all it can be taken as.