Mon. Jun 24th, 2019

Light showers – Then Dry – Still no Snowpack now or later.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 24 June 2019 - Monday night: Partly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Clearing overnight. Low 8. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers late in the afternoon. High 24. Humidex 25. UV index 7 or high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers early in the evening. 60 percent chance of showers before morning. Low 11. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 20. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Thursday: Showers. High 19. Thursday night: Rain. Low 11. Friday: Rain. High 16. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Saturday: Cloudy. High 19. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    20.6° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.45 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 4.8 km/h
    gusting 17.7 km/h
    Humidity
    49 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    20.6° C
    Heat Index
    20.6° C
    Dewpoint
    9.5° C
    UV
    3.5
    Solar
    727 W/m2
    Last Updated: 16:20:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:29
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (54% full)
    Civil Set
    22:13
    Day Length
    13:21:40
    Day High
    20.8° C @ 14:54 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.8° C @ 05:23 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.92 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.45 kPa @ 16:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.8° C @ 05:23 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    20.8° C @ 14:54 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 14.5km/h @ 12:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1206W/m2 @ 12:42 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.0 @ 12:44 Tdy.

There could be some light showers falling anytime from 7AM to 11AM this morning and then again from around 1PM to sundown.

scattered and light showers this morning.
scattered and light showers this morning.

I would be surprised if we got more than 2mm of rain.

After that, the forecast is bone dry through the weekend and well into next week.

We should get back to sunny skies on Saturday, Sunday and Monday and likely into Tuesday and even Wednesday.

Screen Shot 2015-02-19 at 7.26.36 AM

 

Snowpack still Zero – Unlikely to Change Soon.

The snowpack on the South Island remains at zero. As you can see from the graph below, by this time last year – which also featured a very late start to the snow – we had one good dump of snow that allowed the snowpack to jump from zero to around 500mm of snow water equivalent or 50% of our average.

We have still not had any such snow events this year in the mountains or elsewhere, and so we remain at zero, which is worse than the “minimum” year recorded on the graph in red.

spd3b23p-2

The long range forecast out to March 6th shows the an average forecast from multiple models of only around 71mm of total precipitation to that date.

Screen Shot 2015-02-19 at 7.33.40 AMAverage temperatures in that period are hovering, at sea level in Port Alberni, around 5ºC.  Not really cool enough for snow to fall at even those higher elevations.

Screen Shot 2015-02-19 at 7.33.57 AM

I do notice though that in those ultra long time periods, the outlying models seem to be straying to the cold and wet side, so perhaps that is a hopeful sign.  But at this point, that is all it can be taken as.