UPDATED 1:20PM – Alberniweather power outage

Update 1:20PM – Power Outage at Alberniweather

The power just went off at 1:20PM here at Alberniweather (6th and Redford).  This is unusual as we are on a main trunk line that goes out to Bamfield and used to serve the RCMP.  We are often the only ones *with* power in these storms.  So something major must have blown.

The live updating of weather data will be down on the website until power returns but obviously I can post as long as the devices have power and cell service is available.

I took this just before the power went out.  Was admiring the clouds flying past the window.

Updated 12:40PM

It has been a busy morning.  The Malahat is closed due to an accident until 1PM.

Highway 19a (old highway) is closed to Courtenay due to down power lines. And Metro Vancouver is getting a major windstorm.

It hasn’t hit us yet but it still may by 2PM as the barometer continues to fall so be prepared, get some candles and if you can avoid travelling at would probably be good.

As for the new forecast now that the morning model is done from UWash but their website appears to be down.  I will wait a while and update later either with that model or others.

15mm has fallen so far. Have fun out there. It is a great day for puddle jumping!

image

UPDATED 8:30AM – Could we see Wind Gusts to 80kph?

The first thing I noticed when I popped on the iPad this morning was the Barometer on the webpage lit up yellow as it dropped into the 99kPa range.  It continues to drop.  That means we have a strong system on our hands and a chance for wind.  But how good of a chance?

A Weather watcher in Vancouver posted:

That caught my eye… so I went and looked at the High Resolution Rapid Return for our area.

CNlaxUPUYAIS_mT

 

That says 80kph potential for our area.  As with most wind estimates, we require the wind to be funnelled up the Inlet just right to affect us.  But with all of the dead and brittle trees due to the drought there is, I think, an added possibility of trees falling.  I am worried about our own weeping birch that died this year (due to the drought last year and us doing some yard renos).  It could fall on our powerlines.  I might go tie it to something….

There is also the possibility of Thunder and Lightning.  With any intense system like this there is the possibility of a thunderclap or two but it should not be serious and thankfully with all of the rain it should not pose an immediate wildfire threat though lightning strikes are known to cause smolders that turn into fire once the warm weather returns.

Enjoy the rain (but stay out of the river beds) and keep vigilant for effects of wind.  I will have an update around noon unless something else catches my eye.

Updated 11:45PM – Special Statements Rescinded – Hours of Highest Rainfall

Environment Canada has rescinded the Special Weather Statements for Vancouver Island as of 9:45PM.  They still have a rainfall warning for Metro Vancouver.  They are calling for up to 50mm of rain through Saturday night.  The latest run of the UWash model just completed and it agrees with that estimate.  I thought I would throw up an update that has the hours of most rainfall expected so you know when you need to definitely take an umbrella.

Rainfall likely because between 2-3AM.

wa_pcp1.10.0000

Intensifies and first peak is 4-5AM

wa_pcp1.12.0000-3

The rain continues before dying off in the 9-10AM timeframe. wa_pcp1.17.0000

It returns 11-Noon, possibly as strong as early morning.

wa_pcp1.19.0000

 

We get another break around 2PM and then it is off and on after that.

I will be on the 10AM Steam train tomorrow…. with an umbrella. :)  I will try to post an update when I get back home around noon to see if anything has changed in the models for the next wave and to take stock of where we are at.

Enjoy the rain!

Original post….

The firehose is pointed at us.

201508290130_ir

Unlike a few other areas our Special Weather Statement did *not* get upgraded to a rainfall warning.  This is a good thing.  However, we are still slated to get a significant rainfall event as the satellite picture above makes pretty obvious.

If things change with the forecast, the warnings, or the models, this evening I will update.

You can see the Special Weather Statement here, below is the key:

 Across most areas total rainfall amounts through Saturday will be in the 20 to 40 mm range with additional amounts of 15 to 20 mm likely on Sunday.

This is a good downgrade from what was feared before. Lets see if the University of Washington Models agree with that.

Most of the rain before Saturday evening.

It just so happens that once it starts raining around midnight tonight, it isn’t supposed to stop completely until 5PM Sunday!  Which matches well with the graphics.  So, here is their 2-day (48hr) accumulation between 5PM Friday and 5PM Sunday.

wa_pcp48.60.0000-2

The Alberni Valley is within the pink range, so we can expect up to 60mm (2.56in) to fall between now and 5PM Sunday.  The actual estimate for that time is actually closer to 40mm.  But most of that, up to 30mm, will fall before 5PM Saturday.

The rain will return in the evening Sunday but only last until early morning Monday.  Total accumulation Sunday evening to Monday evening is around 20mm.

Windcast

The most likely time for strong winds appears to be Saturday evening after the low has come ashore down in Oregon.  You can see the strong southerly winds reaching up our way in green on this 2-5PM chart.

wgsfc.36.0000-2

Update 10PM Thursday Special Weather Statement Issued – Friday Downgraded to Showers – Saturday Upgraded to Downpour. Beware Difficult Forecasts.

Updated 10PM

Special weather statement has been continued.

 

Update 6PM – Special Weather Statement Issued Flooding Possible.

Here is the full statement please read all.

Issued at 2015-08-27 22:55 UTC by Environment Canada:
Special weather statement issued for:
East Vancouver Island, B.C. (081300)
West Vancouver Island, B.C. (081400)
Inland Vancouver Island, B.C. (081500)
Current details:
Heavy rain over the South Coast this weekend.

A major change in the weather pattern will develop on Friday. The high pressure system that has trapped wildfire smoke over Southern B.C. will finally shift east thanks to a pair of incoming storms. The storms will merge two jet streams into a single river of sub-tropical moisture that will bathe the South Coast with the first significant rainfall in months.

Weather models are indicating 80 to 120 mm of rain over the South Coast between Friday night and Monday morning. 20 to 30 mm of rain is expected to carry over into the mountainous regions of the interior during the same period.

Due to the drought conditions over these regions, the soil has a reduced capacity to absorb water. Heavy rainfall thus increases the risk of flash flooding. Additionally, given the recent prolonged dry period, road surfaces may become slippery resulting in poor driving conditions.

To mitigate the risk of flash flooding, make sure drain spouts and sewer covers are free of debris , so water can freely drain. During heavy rains, avoid roadway underpasses, drainage ditches, low lying areas and water collection areas. They can unexpectedly flood or overflow. Do not try to drive across a flooded road. You cannot tell the condition of the road under the water.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

 

 

I am going to try a new method of displaying the graphics.  Please let me know what you think by emailing alberniweather@gmail.com or leaving a comment or Twitter/FB.  Don’t be shy.

The models seem to be jumping all over the place with these forecasts, so take everything that is said down below with a grain of salt.  However, we are now well within the 3 day window where the forecasts are traditionally very good.  So make preparations as necessary.

Immediate Forecast backs off – Spotty Showers now all day Friday.

I was worried this might happen and it appears to have indeed happened.  The stream of moisture bringing the bulk of the rain has now slip even further south.  We have been left with a secondary band delivering isolated showers through Friday.

Here is a slideshow of the system showing 3hr accumulations from 11PM Saturday-2AM Friday and onward.

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And here is the final accumulation up to 5PM Friday afternoon.  Our total is only up to about 4mm.
wa_pcp24.36.0000-10

 

But Saturday now Means Business

The trade off in the model appears to be the forecast for Saturday which all of a sudden seems a lot more organized than it did yesterday.

I’ll do the pictures in traditional form this time.  Let me know which you prefer.  Again the action starts between 11PM and 2AM and the rain does not let up until after 8PM Saturday.

wa_pcp3.45.0000-4 wa_pcp3.48.0000-3 wa_pcp3.51.0000 wa_pcp3.54.0000 wa_pcp3.57.0000-3 wa_pcp3.60.0000 wa_pcp3.63.0000-3

Those images don’t need much explanation, the firehose is turned squarely on us.

Here is the total accumulation from 5PM Friday through 5PM Saturday… this leaves off a bit but gets the worst of it.

wa_pcp24.60.0000-7

We are perfectly in the cross hairs for up to 60mm (2.5″) of rain.  If we get all of that watch out.  There will be consequences, possible flooding.

There is also a possibility for some gusty winds.  You can see the small, but powerful low coming ashore in Oregon on Saturday morning below.  I don’t expect too much wind activity here.

wgsfc.48.0000

This forecast could change. But due to the severity, I will be keeping a close eye.  If Environment Canada issued a Statement or Rainfall Warning I’ll post it here in an update.  Next post will be tomorrow afternoon/evening to see how the forecast for Saturday changes.

Sunday Backs off, more rain Sunday night into Monday

There are still showersbut it backs off overnight and into Sunday morning.  Another pulse comes through Sunday night into Monday but we’ll see how the forecast changes.