The fog should give way this morning to clouds and showers starting around noon.
The totals will not be large. Only around 4 mm is expected today up to 4PM and then another 8 mm expected up to 4PM on Tuesday.
We have more rain coming Thursday night, maybe 16mm and Saturday night. The Saturday event looks like it could be another serious event, but it is far in the future still so let’s not be too worried about it. Something to look out for only.
Have a Happy Monday!
P.S. And if you are wondering about a white Christmas, just remember the chances any year are less than 5%
Sail pass! A huge turnout last night despite the spooky and very chilly fog.
A fairly warm November but with some record breaking cold streaks… tons of records broken, low and high! And then there is what happened the first week of December!
Wondering about the cover image? This post was brought to you (unofficiallly) by the word EXTREME… or at least the 80s band…. hahaha. (this is what you get when you type in “Extreme” in Google images. :D)
The December 8-11, 2014 Event for the record books:
First, lets do a recap of the extraordinary event that was the multiple punch storm that has affected us (and delayed this monthly summary!)
we received 76% of the normal rainfall for December in 4 days.
Most intense multi-rainfall event ever recorded?
I looked at the days where more than 0.4 mm of rain was recorded surrounding the historic records listed above. Total for the past 4 days is more than the multi-day events around the 1923 Beaver Creek record (4 days, 143mm), the 1993 Robertson Creek record (6 days, 231 mm), and the 1999 Robertson Creek record (6 days, 110 mm) so it is likely that this was one of if not the most intense multi-day rainfall event recorded in the Alberni Valley.
Temperatures high too:
Lets also not forget the record we smashed on December 9 from the post:
An incredible high at the Airport was reached: 14.5ºC almost a month record.
Beat the all-time Dec 9 day of 12.2ºC at Port Alberni in 1921 and 1957. Also beat the entire month of December at Robertson Creek but not at Somass “A”. Previous was 14.0ºC and 15.6ºC respectively in 1976 .
#2 for December 8 and 10:
We reached 12.1ºC and *just* missed an all time record high for the day on December 8 (Monday). The record at Beaver Creek, and Port Alberni City in 1938, 1939 and 1957 was 12.2ºC. We also set a short term record on December 10 of 13.3º C which was #2 all time to 13.9ºC set in 1926 at City of Port Alberni.
And lets not forget this:
Unfortunately wind records are not good for Port Alberni so it is difficult if not impossible to say how unusual that was, but I think we can rest assured a 103kph wind gust is a very rare event any time of the year.
The November 2014 Summary!
Temperatures above normal except lows at the Airport.
November switched gears from rainy October. We ping-ponged from cold snap to warm outbreak. In the end, the local differences between the warm Alberni inlet and the fog-influenced City stations showed daytime low temperatures slightly above normal against the cooler Alberni Airport location that showed overnight lows a full 1º below normal.
Maximum temperatures were well above normal and kept our overall averages near normal as well despite lows being below.
Rainfall half normal
Our normal rainfall for November is 345mm. We received 55% of that number.
The December update showed El Niño still trying to present itself but not quite getting there. There is still a 65% chance of El Niño being declared during the winter season and lasting into the spring.
The Models and Forecasters still expect a weak El Niño to form.
World Charges Toward New High Temperature
In late November the NCDC released their October global report which showed October 2014 to be yet another record high month as many have this year. The November report should be out next week…. The November report will show November 2014 was the 7th warmest on record according to NCDC (8th from NASA) , bolstering the case for 2014 being warmest year ever. The oceans had their warmest November ever… that’s the 7th month in a row with warmest oceans ever… concerning with no real El Niño. Land temperatures were “only” the 13th warmest, pulling the global figure down.
This graph is worth a thousand words:
As I quoted from a news story last month, “2014 is already pummeling records without the aid of El Nino’s push.”
The floor is rising when it comes to global temperatures. Anyone who tells you we are in some sort of “pause” is flat out wrong. As the graph below shows, 2014 (in green) and most of the years since 2000 are very much on top of the heap.
As was the case in October, November’s monthly outlooks were pretty much useless. September’s prediction for October showed below normal precipitation… we got almost the most ever.
October’s prediction for precipitation for November swung in the opposite direction with above average rainfall predicted…
…. but we got half of normal…. which is what September said (below).