The Wet Weekend that Wasn’t – Possible Thunderstorms Tuesday

It wasn’t nearly as wet as many thought it would be this weekend… today we might get some thunderstorms and this week we should get back to nice warm weather in time for Fall Fair!  (Come find me along with a couple other councillor hopefuls at our booth in Glenwood!)

Today (Tuesday) Possible Thunderstorms:

The gods may show their displeasure that our children are not at school… there is thunder in the air!

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The models are showing the greatest likelihood for thunderstorms around 2PM this afternoon.

Unlike last month when the turbulent weather came up from the souther, the main force of this unstable weather is coming down from the North and seems centred mainly in the Barklay Sound area and the West Coast.

CAPESept2But we should be prepared just the same.

The Wet Weekend that Wasn’t

After much worry and gnashing of teeth about a big ‘change in the weather’ heralding rain (10-30 mm) and frowning faces, the rain that was supposed to come didn’t.

The station at the Airport officially measured 0.2 mm of rain and our average high temperature was 21.5º C

This brings both  our average Salmon Derby Weekend rainfall and the high temperature down slightly from 10.4 mm to 10.0 mm and  23.17º C to 23.13º C respectively over the past 43 years.

Here’s the updated spreadsheet as continued from last week. (click for larger view)salmonderbystats2014Warm weather returns:

Once we get through today’s thundershowers, we should see a gradual improvement in the weather.  It should feel like summer again as soon as tomorrow and it will really feel like summer on Friday, just in time for the Fair.

More on the fall fair forecast tomorrow.

Happy Tuesday-that-feels-like-Monday everyone!

 

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Full Labour Day Weekend Forecast – Plus Wind for Fishers

That’s my father-in-law Cliff with one of a bunch of salmon they caught on Thursday! I didn’t ask him for permission to post that photo. Muahahahaha. Nice fish Cliff!

It will definitely feel cool this weekend as the high that protected us and gave us so much warm weather for so long has finally broken down. That said, the likelihood of strong rain isn’t too great and the accumulations have definitely been ratcheted down. It is more likely that we will just get bouts of light rain off and on through the weekend.

Specific times rain will move through:

We might get some very light rain this morning. The forecast is for only .5mm to 1mm between 5-8AM so don’t expect a downpour.
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The evening and night look clear of rain though probably a little chilly.  Good fireworks weather for the fireworks tonight but you might want to bundle up a little.

Next chance for rain will be late Saturday morning into early afternoon.
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We might get around 4mm in total. Still not much, but enough to put a damper on the Salmon Festival for most of the day. It should clear after dark.

The strongest chance of rain will thankfully wait to happen during the evening on Sunday. Anyone camping will want to have the campfire going and the tarps up by dinner time. As the rain wil sweep down before 8PM. It will be windy near the water too. More on that below.
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It will clear by sunrise Monday morning so that should keep the fishermen happy.

The showers will return Monday afternoon, but they won’t amount to much.

Totals:
For the entire weekend the model currently has us getting (by 5PM each day) 2mm Friday, 8mm Saturday, 4mm Sunday and 4mm Monday.

Wind:

I was asked by some fisher friends about the wind. My understanding isn’t quite good enough to make a really confident prediction but going by the high resolution (1.3km) forecast that shows most of the Alberni Inlet and Barkley Sound, the winds look like they will be calm every morning but build still build every afternoon.

Specific best guess times for wind starts:

Friday by 2PM to 8PM.

Saturday looks not fun especially in Barkley Sound. It will be windy in the morning before 5AM and building all morning to peak near before noon and then slowly dying off by evening.

Sunday morning looks pretty calm but the wind will return by midday stronger than Satuday and it looks nasty on the outside Sunday evening. No night fishing.

Monday morning is calm again for the last shot before the Derby ends.

Have a great weekend everyone and good luck to all the Derby participants! Sounds like there are lots of fish to be caught! Tight lines!