September 2014 Summary – Warmer than Normal, but good rainfall – Ski Forecast Grim?

A significantly warmer than normal Summer was tempered somewhat by a rainy last couple weeks that brought us very near normal rainfall.   The outlook for the late fall and winter ski season and snowpack has not gotten better.


Temperatures well above normal.

As was the case for August, the month of September saw temperature above normal in the City and Airport.

The good news is rainfall was 94% of normal.  Most of that fell towards the end of the month.

Looking Ahead – Still Weak El Niño – Still Warm and dry fall and winter predicted?

Even though we got some rain, don’t expect the water restrictions to be lifted anytime soon. There are some weak rain showers coming in the next week or so but it still doesn’t look like enough to really call the ‘wet season’ started.

The monthly precipitation charts from the US NOAA were a little too pessimistic last month when they called for a drier than normal month.  Their prediction has shifted quite a bit for October though.  Here is their prediction for October from last month

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And here is there prediction for October now:

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The wetter than normal weather has shifted north and a big pocket of drier than normal weather has come into the Pacific Northwest.  We will see how this will work out.

The forecast for November is for the dryness to intensify which will not be good news for skiers.

IMME_prate_us_lead2

December looks normal… you can see all the long term charts here.  Winter is still looking very dry and abnormally warm.  Not a good omen for the snowpack.  Fingers Crossed.

Don’t forget you should have Winter Tires or Tires with the snowflake on your car from October 1st to April 1st if you are travelling on mountain passes like the Hump, Sutton Pass or the Malahat.

When will the first snowfall happen?  It might be time to start up the contest! :)

Happy First of October Hump Day all.


*Denotes incomplete data for the month

Average Daily Temperature for September:

Alberniweather: 16.7° C
Alberni Elementary School : 16.5° C
Maquinna Elementary School: 16.6° C
Neptune Canada Station: 20.1° C
Overall City Average: 17.5° C
Environment Canada Airport: 16.3*° C

1981-2010 Env Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 15.3° C
City Stations Diff from normal: +2.2° C
Official (Airport) Difference from normal: +1.0° C


Average Minimum Daily Temperature for September:

Alberniweather: 11.1° C
AES: 10.7° C
MAQ: 11.5° C
NEP: 12.6° C
Overall City Average: 11.5° C
Environment Canada Airport: 9.6*° C

1981-2010 Env. Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 8.0° C
City Stations Difference from normal: +3.5° C
Official (Airport) Difference from normal: +1.6º C


Average Maximum Daily Temperature for September:

Alberniweather: 23.7° C
AES: 23.3° C
MAQ: 23.5° C
NEP: 24.4° C
Overall City Average: 23.7° C
Environment Canada Airport: 23.0° C
1981-2010 Env Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 22.4° C
City Stations Difference from normal: +1.3° C
Official (Airport) Difference from normal: +0.6° C


Average Precipitation for September:

Alberniweather: 53.1 mm
AES: 61.4 mm
MAQ: 62.2 mm
NEP: NA (not measured)
Overall City Average: 58.9 mm
EC: 58.0 mm

1981-2010 Env Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 61.4 mm
City Stations Diff. normal: -2.5 mm (96% of normal)
Official (Airport) Diff. from  normal: -3.4 mm (94% of normal)

 


Comparison to recent Septembers at Alberniweather (only).

2013: we were significantly warmer and dry this August than last.

2012:  We were warmer but that August 15 rain put us well ahead of 2012s lows (which led to historic dry conditions)

2011: We were warmer this year but again that August 15 rainfall put us over the top.

2010:  August 2010 was a little cooler again but we received similar rainfall.

2009:  August 2010 was a little cooler again but we received a little less rainfall than this year.

2008:  August 2008 was cooler and we received a lot more rainfall, over 60mm.

Mixed bag for the week

We have a variety of weather coming at us this week but nothing too serious.

After a gorgeous weekend, we will have a short bout of showers this morning before 11AM.

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Things should clear up Tuesday and be dry Wednesday and Thursday until some more serious rain comes back on Friday and into Saturday.

That’s all for this morning! I’ll be working on the September summary and should have that out on the 1st!

Happy Monday!