The new Bring back the Mars petition is going to hit 15,000 today. Incredible. You can sign it here.
Air Quality continues to improve but Advisory will remain for the day. The short term 1-hour numbers are just at warning level now of 25ug/m3 and look to be levelling off. Even if it stays there for 24 hours that means the 24 hour average will still be at warning levels.
Jeremy Linning’s life feed is now over.
The BC Wildfire page has now been updated. Here it is in full
Dog Mountain (V70274)
Last updated: Monday, July 06, 2015 at 9:36 AM
Discovered: Saturday, July 04, 2015
Size: 35.0 hectares (estimated)
Fire is surrounded by steep terrain on all sides and is very active. This fire is burning aggressively on the top of a mountain and backed down the slope last night. An uninhabited cabin was lost.
Interface: Interface Fire
Cabins at the lake level with boat only access were evacuated with help from the RCMP. This area is still considered dangerous due to the rolling debris coming downhill from the fire. The public is cautioned that this is a very active and dangerous response area, and they should not approach the area by boat or foot.
Alberni-Clayoquot Regional District has activated a Level one Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) to support response efforts for this fire. For more information on the EOC, contact Alberni-Clayoquot Regional District: Russell Dyson at 250 720-2705 or 250 720-7051.
This fire is on a peninsula of land almost completely surrounded by Sproat Lake. A narrow isthmus provides land access to some of the cabins on the peninsula.
This fire is suspected to be human caused.
• 21 firefighters
• 3 helicopters
Air Tankers dropped retardant on the fire on Saturday, which has the ability to retard the movement of the fire when either wet or dry. Helicopters, including a heavy helicopter, are also bucketing on the fire to cool hot spots and reduce fire behaviour.
Air Quality continues to improve. Unfortunately, a Cabin (uninhabited) has been consumed by the fire.
I’ve created a GIF of images from Jeremy Linning’s Periscope feed. It shows the growth of the fire this morning.
You can watch the smoke roll in in yesterdays time-lapse. Apologies for the one camera that has been acting up lately.
Environment Canada just updated their statement on the smoke. Forecast high remains 35º C.
Issued at 2015-07-06 14:40 UTC by Environment Canada:
Special weather statement continued for:
East Vancouver Island, B.C. (081300)
West Vancouver Island, B.C. (081400)
Inland Vancouver Island, B.C. (081500)
Forest fire smoke will continue to affect the BC South Coast.
Forest fire smoke continues to affect much of the inner South Coast. While low level wind patterns are changing, ushering in cooler marine air through Juan de Fuca strait, winds aloft are expected to remain fairly light. Slightly cooler temperatures and modest improvements in visibilities and air quality are expected. Smoke aloft may linger for some time.
Air Quality Advisory in Effect. Click here for recommendations (PDF). Graphs updated with 7AM values. Air Quality improving. If you are thinking about getting out of town for a while to find clearer air. The West Coast and North island are probably your best bets.
“Avoid strenuous outdoor activities. If you are experiencing any of the following symptoms, contact your health care provider: difficulty in breathing, chest pain or discomfort, and sudden onset of cough or irritation of airways. Exposure is particularly a concern for infants, the elderly and those who have underlying medical conditions such as diabetes, and lung or heart disease. “
Initial Post 7:20AM
The big concern is Air Quality. I will keep the air quality graphs above the updates today and update them periodically until the values go below criteria levels (25). Note my images may not update as often as the bc airquality site itself but at least they are more accessible than the BC AirQuality website. I will do my best.
Even though it doesn’t seem as dramatic as yesterday, the big concern today more than yesterday is Air Quality. An Advisory remains in effect.
The official ‘objective’ is an average 2.5 micro-metre Particulate Matter (PM2.5) over 24 hours of 25ug/m3. Our latest reading at 6AM brought us to double that standard.
Our raw reading got as high as 130ug/m3 at 3AM. It is currently, as of the 6AM update, 62ug/m3.
You can see this readings on the BC Airquality website. On a mobile device or without flash you need to go to the Data Archive and the data is delayed. On a computer with flash, go to the Nanaimo area and click the Port Alberni Elementary button on the map then click on the readings to see the graphs. It’s not very easy.
Smoke unlikely to clear completely today. But we are not alone.
The images below are from the fire smoke models at firesmoke.ca.
The red is PM2.5 levels of over 175. That’s terrible. These images are the forecasted levels today around 6PM. These models update only once a day.
So this is all good and bad news.
The good news is with all the smoke, we will not be able to reach our forecast high of 35ºC. That means reduced fire activity and a little more comfort for everyone.
The bad news is with all the smoke, we have continued air quality issues. It’s a double edged sword but I think at this point, I’ll take the reduced fire activity and heat over the poor air quality.
That said, if you do have respiratory problems, it is recommended that you stay indoors somewhere there is A/C or filtration as this poor air will affect those with asthma, or other respiratory illnesses especially.
There is some wind on the West Coast this morning and we have had a light breeze this morning in town but not nearly enough to make a difference as was hoped.
Fire remains. Linning Livestream
Jeremy Linning still has a Periscope live stream of the fire here.
Since the Fire information has not been updated since 3PM yesterday, this stream is our best up-to-date look at the state of the fire. It seems to have grown a bit toward the right since yesterday.
Weather forecast remains uncertain, except no Rain.
Because the smoke is blocking the full force of the sun, we can really throw the temperature forecasts out the window. It was 10ºC cooler yesterday than forecast because of the smoke.
What we really need to know is when the wind might come and take this smoke away. It was supposed to start this morning, and it did a bit, but not much.
There is a good breeze on the coast this morning and that is supposed to pickup a bit as you can see on the image below.
But there isn’t much in the interior of the Island. Lets hope there is anyway.
Don’t expect rain anytime soon.
What we know for sure, is there is not going to be any rain anytime soon. There is no rain in the UWash model forecast through the 13th.
There is also only a consensus of 10mm of rain forecast between now and the 21st of July on the super-long range models. With most of that falling at the back end and most uncertain end of the prediction.
I wish I had better news but without a serious change in our weather pattern, we really are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Have a good Monday.