Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast! Oho flyby – Rain likely less than expected – Windy Coast.

The remains of Hurricane Oho are making their way North.  Judging by the latest satellite pic, I think the former “core” of the storm is currently off of northern California and heading in our general direction pretty quickly. (See the arrow)  The moisture from the storm is very front end loaded and is already impacting the Central and North coast of BC.imageThe big Gulf of Alaska low is really what is driving the bus in terms of our weather and Oho’s end of life.

The current storm track from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center for Oho below shows a more westerly and northerly route. The closest the core will come is several hundred kilometres west of the Island.


The Current Advisory states the hurricane is now transitioning from a “warm core” hurricane to a “cold core” extratropical low.  However, that does not mean we will not feel some impact.  That transition and its interaction with the big low in Alaska will cause the storms winds to expand in range.  As a result exposed sections of northern Vancouver Island will see winds in the 90-110kph tonight and tomorrow.

We should not see anything like that, in fact UWash has the central and south Island staying dry through the day Thursday with the main force of the rain hitting north of Tofino. We might get a few showers from it.


The rain will drape south by 5AM Friday morning and be strongest in the 5-8AM period.


That will not be the end of it. The rain and showers will linger all day Friday and continue into Saturday with a stronger pulse of rain coming Saturday afternoon in the 11AM-2PM period.


That will be the last gasp for any remnants of Oho and it will dry up Saturday evening.  There might be some gusty winds while that dries up,

Showers will return late Sunday and the strongest of the weekend are predicted to come Monday morning before sunrise.


This could bring us some more gusty winds but it should be very short lived as the front passes through before noon Monday.  We might even see some sunny breaks in the afternoon.

Total Accumulations of rain for the Thursday to Monday afternoon period:

  • UWash: 60mm
  • US GFS: 65mm
  • Cnd GEPS multi: 140mm
  • Cdn GEM: 140mm

That is quite a split but I would personally lay my bets on the UWash/GFS predictions. I will update that list and any graphics on this page if they change significantly.  Otherwise, this will be you Thanksgiving weekend forecast, hope you have a great one.


Aloha Oho – Ex-Hurricane delivers up to 150mm by Thanksgiving Monday?

Looks like we have another tropical river setting up and another ex-Hawaii Hurricane feeding moisture to us in the next few days including over Thanksgiving.

Hurricane Oho (NOAA Page here) is a Category 1 Hurricane currently losing steam near Hawaii.  The interesting part is it’s predicted path.  This is a 5 day track (to 2PM Sunday) as of this Tuesday evening.


The wind potential is not huge, but it is a very vigorous system as we can see from the UWash maps as it travels.  Below you see Wednesday 11PM (pink), Thursday 11PM and Friday 11AM as it travels up from the SouthWest.

pcp3.30.0000 pcp3.54.0000-2 pcp3.66.0000

If this track holds then rainfall will be lessened but still nothing to sneeze at. UWash is predicting up to 128mm between Wednesday morning and Monday afternoon.  The majority predicted for Sunday/Monday.

But there is not agreement of course.

Here is the Canadian Ten Day from SpotWx. 186mm, mostly Sunday.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.15.00 PM

The US GFS model is the least worrisome with only 80mm.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.17.06 PM

And the Canadian multi-model consensus is 137mm.

Screen Shot 2015-10-06 at 10.18.24 PM

It all makes for a wet few days, but not necessarily of great concern.

Forecasts can certainly change however.  The ex-Hurricane’s path appears to be influenced by the large low near the Alaska Panhandle.  That low is what actually swings rain into us and the question is whether it swings Oho into us as well.

Will keep you posted.  I will try to push out the September Summary tomorrow so that that is out of the way before Thanksgiving.