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Full Labour Day Weekend Forecast – Plus Wind for Fishers

That’s my father-in-law Cliff with one of a bunch of salmon they caught on Thursday! I didn’t ask him for permission to post that photo. Muahahahaha. Nice fish Cliff!

It will definitely feel cool this weekend as the high that protected us and gave us so much warm weather for so long has finally broken down. That said, the likelihood of strong rain isn’t too great and the accumulations have definitely been ratcheted down. It is more likely that we will just get bouts of light rain off and on through the weekend.

Specific times rain will move through:

We might get some very light rain this morning. The forecast is for only .5mm to 1mm between 5-8AM so don’t expect a downpour.
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The evening and night look clear of rain though probably a little chilly.  Good fireworks weather for the fireworks tonight but you might want to bundle up a little.

Next chance for rain will be late Saturday morning into early afternoon.
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We might get around 4mm in total. Still not much, but enough to put a damper on the Salmon Festival for most of the day. It should clear after dark.

The strongest chance of rain will thankfully wait to happen during the evening on Sunday. Anyone camping will want to have the campfire going and the tarps up by dinner time. As the rain wil sweep down before 8PM. It will be windy near the water too. More on that below.
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It will clear by sunrise Monday morning so that should keep the fishermen happy.

The showers will return Monday afternoon, but they won’t amount to much.

Totals:
For the entire weekend the model currently has us getting (by 5PM each day) 2mm Friday, 8mm Saturday, 4mm Sunday and 4mm Monday.

Wind:

I was asked by some fisher friends about the wind. My understanding isn’t quite good enough to make a really confident prediction but going by the high resolution (1.3km) forecast that shows most of the Alberni Inlet and Barkley Sound, the winds look like they will be calm every morning but build still build every afternoon.

Specific best guess times for wind starts:

Friday by 2PM to 8PM.

Saturday looks not fun especially in Barkley Sound. It will be windy in the morning before 5AM and building all morning to peak near before noon and then slowly dying off by evening.

Sunday morning looks pretty calm but the wind will return by midday stronger than Satuday and it looks nasty on the outside Sunday evening. No night fishing.

Monday morning is calm again for the last shot before the Derby ends.

Have a great weekend everyone and good luck to all the Derby participants! Sounds like there are lots of fish to be caught! Tight lines!

Salmon Festival Weekend Rain and Temperature Stats from Robertson Creek station.

Campfire ban lifts Thursday – 43 Years of Salmon Festival Weather

Two things seem sure in life, good things must come to an end, and the weather must always be iffy, if not downright soggy for Salmon Festival/Labour Day weekend.  And now I have the stats to prove it!

I will update again on Friday, but as of now, it’s looking like the gorgeous summer weather will end today and rain will invade starting Saturday. It’s not all bad though, fish like rain right? Plus, the forecast has encouraged the Coastal Fire Centre to lift the campfire ban at noon on Thursday.

Today (Wednesday)

Soak it up. The sky is clear and sun will be warm once it gets over the mountain.
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I took my pair of very sleepy children out to the lake last night to see the stars and Milky Way. It was a perfect night for it and they were suitably impressed even though the light from the City still washed it out a bit.

Thursday/Friday:

We are looking at a transition to a cooler and wetter mode. We should cloud over Thursday and by Thursday night and Friday morning we may very well get some rain.

43rd Salmon Festival! – Stats say yup, it’s usually a little soggy.

I will get into more detail on the actual forecast on Friday when things are more settled in the models but it looks like we are in for periodic rain showers Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

And unfortunately this is pretty typical!

Salmon Festival Weekend Rain and Temperature Stats from Robertson Creek station.
Salmon Festival Weekend Rain and Temperature Stats from Robertson Creek station. Red: Over 25º Blue: Under 20º Green: Over 5mm. Click for full size.

I’ve compiled the stats for the Labour Day weekend rain totals and average highs over the 3 days since the Salmon Festival started in 1971.  Here are the results!  There has been rain measured during the weekend nearly two thirds of the time and when it does rain it’s not a small amount… over 10mm.  You’ll notice that. :)

The good news is, the average high temperature isn’t bad… 23.4ºC.  It is still summer after all.  The warm years have won slightly (30% over 25º)  over the chilly low years (28% under 20º).

That said, the die may have already been cast for this weekend and the forecast looks sure to add to the ‘cool and rainy’ columns than the warm and dry.

No matter what though, it will be a fun weekend.  Good luck out there!