Switch to Cool Wet for a few days – Climate Change causes Cedar trees to freeze

After two weeks of pretty consistent heat, there is a definite shift in the pattern as the ridge of high pressure has broken and the jet stream positions itself closer to our area. The top image is the jet today.  You can see it looping around a low pressure area that will bring some showers mostly to the north end of Vancouver Island.

image image The bottom image is Sunday where we can see the eddy in the flow break up and move away and the full force of the jet is predicted to come our way.  It is too early though to say whether that means more rain on the weekend.  I will have another update Wednesday that should have better clues.

Despite what EC is saying, UWash is expecting Monday (top image below) to be mostly dry in Port Alberni.


Tuesday will see more widespread showers with some in Port Alberni in the afternoon but most of the activity is modelled to occur on the West and East and South sides of the Island and miss Port Alberni.


Wednesday things linger a little in Port Alberni but generally dry out.


As I said above, I will post another update Wednesday for a first good look at the Labour Day Long Weekend and Port Alberni Salmon Festival!

Yellow Cedar trees get cold feet and die.

Some really interesting and very long term research has come up with an explanation on why Yellow Cedar in Alaska and BC have been dying over the past 40 years.  The answer? Global Warming is freezing them to death!

The excellent Hakai Magazine explains the paradox. Scientists started looking into this in 1981. It has taken them until now to figure it out.


Nothing panned out. “We started to run out of possible biological causes,” Hennon says.

That’s when they went broader, looking at soil composition and mapping out where trees were dying or healthy. … The cedars, they found, were dying at low elevations where the soil was wet and roots were shallow. “We started to cook up this hypothesis that it was a freezing injury affecting the shallow roots,” Hennon says. Proving that wasn’t easy.

In addition to their main support roots, yellow cedars have a series of very fine feeder roots, which supply trees with water and nutrients. … “They die and turn over on a cycle,” Hennon says. Still, they noticed that many of the trees they dug up were devoid of feeder roots.

Hennon’s partners in Vermont tested root tissue by exposing them to colder and colder temperatures and measuring how badly the cells were damaged. That’s when the truth was revealed: although yellow cedar lives in very cold environments, the species is actually quite vulnerable to extremely cold weather.

That’s where climate change comes in. Snow in coastal environments normally acts as insulation from the coldest weather. It keeps soil in this region at temperatures just above freezing. Climate change, however, means less snow, which can lower soil temperatures to -5 °C—which is lethal to the roots.

If snow patterns weren’t changing, yellow cedars wouldn’t have a problem. But warming weather now [not] only means that some winters have less snow, they can also be followed by an influx of colder continental air from the interior of British Columbia and the Yukon.

That’s the irony of yellow cedar decline: “It’s freezing to death in a warming climate,” Hennon says.

These conditions don’t happen every year, and the researchers now feel it takes several injurious seasons to kill a yellow cedar tree.

And that is how a tree can die from the cold due to a warming goobe and changing climate.  The conditions these trees have lived in for millenia are changing rapidly.

This means there are now two major species of trees in BC directly impacted by climate change, the Lodgepole Pine in the interior which has been seen 50% of its merchantible timber lost due to the Mountain Pine Beetle outbreak (itself caused by the beetles not being killed off by winter cold as they had been before) that started in the 1990s and now the Yellow Cedar.  interesting times.


Summer heat continues. Global nuclear bomb count rises. Climate action scarce

UPDATE Thursday 3:45PM

Currently hotspot in Canada! Woot!


original post below

Wednesday August 24

We are back into a few days of nice summer weather as we reach for highs above 30°C on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  The hottest day will be Thursday when we can expect a high of 34 and humidex of 36 according to Envronment Canada.  UWash has it slightly cooler with highs to 33 on Thursday but the two are close enough not to matter.

There is no rain in the forecast until a possibility begins around Monday or Tuesday next week.

Global Heat and Arctic Ice records.

Unless you have been under a rock you will have noticed the news that July was the hottest on record.(US NOAA). The graph below shows all the July’s since 1880.  Globally, the temperature for that month has risen by 0.99°C.


People often say 0.99°C doesn’t sound like much.  But if you calculate how much extra energy that actually represents like you can with formulas on this website, the perspective changes.


it takes about 5.95 x 1021 Joules to raise the temperature of the atmosphere one degree Celsius.

How much energy is 5.95 x 1021? (or 6 sextillion Joules, six and 21 zeroes).  The nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima released 63 TeraJoules. 6 sextillion Joules is 6 billion TeraJoules. So the amount of heat energy accumulated in the atmosphere for 1°C of warming of the planet equals the energy of 95 million Hiroshima bombs.

Or, if you want something a little more down to Earth, an average person would burn around 0.000002419 TeraJoules to cycle 20 kilometres per hour for an hour, so 20km.  At that constant speed, a person would have to ride for 2,480,363,786,688,714 kilometres to output the same amount of energy as our 95 million nukes.  That would be like riding your bike all the way to Pluto and back over 2 million times (Pluto is ‘only’ 4,000,000,000 km away from Earth).

OK… enough with the crazy math.

Arctic Sea Ice far below normal

Have you been wondering about the Arctic? We have not heard much about it this year.  Unfortunately the news only picks up on things when there are ‘new records’.  Here is the latest sea ice extent graph from the NSIDC.


You can see it is well below the 2 Standard Deviation zone which even though it is not a record, makes it an exceptionally low year in the grand scheme.  It is actually on track to be about the same as last year for September’s minimum.

That of course means heat will continue to be pumped into the high Arctic that would normally be reflected away by ice and snow.

Climate Inaction (including in BC) is dangerous.

I came across this graph put out by scientists writing at Climate Central this week in an article titled “Negative Emissions Key to Meeting 2°C Threshold”.


It is based on new research published here which states:

(I will post a quote and then explain it)

In summary, the chances of avoiding the 2° and especially the 1.5° temperature target are highly sensitive to the timing of climate mitigation

In other words, if we want to avoid dangerous warming (2ºC) or avoid warming that is likely to at least submerge several island nations and cause serious global harm (1.5ºC).  The time at which we start reducing CO2 emissions (‘mitigation’) matters a lot.

Current INDCs could not avoid 2° of warming without relying on substantially greater net negative emissions later in the century

INDCs refer to the emissions reductions Commitments made at Paris by the countries of the world.  So this quote means that those commitments would not be enough to avoid 2ºC of warming if we do not find a way to not only stop adding CO2 to the atmosphere before 2050, but also remove large amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere after that as well.

In order to achieve 2° with an RCP2.6 level of long-term carbon removal, 2030 net GHGEs must be reduced by 10% from 2015 levels, significantly more than the unconditional INDCs

This means that to even give us a chance at being able to remove enough CO2 to stay below 2ºC we would have to reduce emissions by 10% compared to 2015 levels by 2030.  The current plan from the world does not achieve that.  And for local context, the newly announced Climate Leadership Plan by the BC Government does not even set a 2030 reduction target.  Hardly leadership.  Emissions in BC may actually rise if that plan is followed.  If this was an example for the world, we would be on an irreversible pathway to very dangerous levels of warming and disruption.

You might say the word “irreversible” is too strong.  But I will give you this quote to back it up.

Avoiding 1.5° of warming altogether, even with immediate action, would require considerably greater effort—at least a 25% cut in effective global CO2 emissions from present-day levels by 2030, a rate of reduction which many would consider impossible.

The Canadian delegation in Paris made a lot of noise about 1.5ºC.  This latest research indicates actually avoiding 1.5ºC is considered by many people as impossible at this point because of the massive change needed.  Is it impossible?

One thing is for sure, we have waited too long.  We cannot afford to wait any longer to avoid 2ºC.  There is incredible opportunity available to us in the transition and in the result of a Fossil Fuel free economy.  But we must force our governments to act very strongly to make it happen.