In rain shadow this morning next wave Friday – Warm sea in the news

It may still be drizzling out there but we are actually escaping the worst of the rain this morning.

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As you can see above, most of the rain is going around us while we get shadowed. These regional showers will take all day to taper off but we should remain just cloudy for the most part.

On Friday we get another wave of precipitation starting first thing in the morning and lasting all day.   Saturday looks dry but Sunday we are back to wet and more small systems come next week.  April showers! Too bad we have already had the flowers. ;)

Tiny insignifcant snowpack.

The latest data from the South Island Jump creek snow station show no accumulation of snow (the 99999 values) but a tiny accumulation of snow water equivalent. (Between 10 and 7mm).

imageIt is unlikely to be cold enough with any of the upcoming systems to have the snowpack increase.  We are still looking at a record low, basically zero, snowpack for the south island.

Warm sea temperatures in the news

The BC River forecast centre already implicated the abnormally warm sea temperatures in our abnormal warm and snow free winter. Now it appears local media has caught wind of this phenomenon and local ocean scientists are saying it is the warmest they have ever seen in their records (>100 years). It was on CTV Vancouver Island (2) last night and continues tonight

Here is what Sea Surface Temperature anomalies look like right now.  Red being higher than normal.

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As you can see the waters off our coast  most of North America are the most abnormally warm in the world right now.  As the news is apparently going to get into tonight, this cannot be a good sign for our cold water loving salmon.  With ocean temperatures high from this, and river temperatures high and water levels low from lack of snowpack and increased local logging activity, there is great potential for impact on our salmon stocks this year and in cycles to come.

Tomorrow will be the first meeting of the new Food Security and Climate Change committee for the City of Port Alberni.  There is much work to be done.

An Active Week Ahead – Back to School Weather Schedule!

Keep an umbrella handy with you all week this week.  Oh, and since the kids will be going back to school, they will likely need some rain boots and jackets!

Monday – Dry Morning – Wet Afternoon – slight chance of Thunder

After a good soaking on Sunday afternoon (very appropriate for World Water Day), we should start out dry on Monday for back to school time.  However, by the time school is out, expect showers.

3hr total 11-2PM
3hr total 11-2PM

The image above shows light showers starting in the 11 – 2PM timeframe.  The showers should be weighted toward the later time.  It is supposed to build a little more into the 2-5PM hour before tapering off again after sundown.

The atmosphere is also a little unstable so there will be a slight chance of a thunderstorm, but the models I have show only a very weak possibility of any activity at all.

Tuesday – Mostly Dry waiting for Wednesday

Tuesday should be mostly dry with perhaps a few breaks in the clouds.  Winds should be calm both Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday Main Event

Early Wednesday we should see a strong system push through.

pcp3.54.0000

It should rain all day Wednesday but the amounts are somewhat uncertain.  The model is currently predicting only 8mm between Tuesday and Thursday morning.

The rest of the week looks pretty similar to this unstable, variable pattern of alternating wet and dry.  Good for the gardens!