The world temperature anomaly map.  The difference from normal 20th century average temperatures was higher in nearly every region except central and Eastern Europe.

Warm and Wet Weekend – Record Warm World – Coffee and Chocolate Threatened – Apocalypse Now

Update:  New Study reveals record high North Pacific Ocean temperatures threatening cold water species including Salmon.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/record-north-pacific-temperatures-threatening-b-c-marine-species-1.2845662

Update 9:45AM: The Air Quality Advisory and Burning Restrictions have now ended.

Today, Saturday and Sunday will be warm, will have periods of rain and possibly some wind too.  Thankfully though after a rainy Friday, most of the rain for the weekend looks like it might come in the overnight hours and leave us mostly dry for daytime Saturday and Sunday.  Fingers crossed.

Check out the “Kitchen Sink” page.

Make sure you click on and bookmark the “Full Conditions and Almanac” link added to the menu along the top.  I’ll be adding to the page over time and reorganizing some of the data there to make it easier to read and to group the values a bit.  It’s coming along nicely.

2014 marches to warmest year on record.

Even though El Niño hasn’t materialized and despite the local cold snaps… the world is on track to have its warmest year since humanity started dumping CO2 into the atmosphere.

The NOAA have released their monthly global climate report for October 2014. It says:

With records dating back to 1880, the global temperature averaged across the world’s land and ocean surfaces for October 2014 was the highest on record for the month, at 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average. This also marks the third consecutive month and fifth of the past six with a record high global temperature for its respective month (July was fourth highest).

The world temperature anomaly map.  The difference from normal 20th century average temperatures was higher in nearly every region except central and Eastern Europe.
The world temperature anomaly map. The difference from normal 20th century average temperatures was higher in nearly every region except eastern Euopre and Russia.

 

Important takeaways from this report:

a) El Niño warms huge parts of the Pacific Ocean and strong ones have contributed to record warm years in the past (like 1998, which many skeptics like to hold up as the start of the “end” of warming).  October 2014 saw the warmest ocean temperatures for the month on record, and there was no El Niño.

b) As we all know, water warms slower and holds heat longer than air.  So warming oceans have the potential to disrupt and/or change weather patterns significantly over longer periods of time. They represent a huge store of energy for the worlds weather patterns to use.

c) November and December would have to be colder than average for the world to avoid being  the #1 hottest year in NOAAs records.  As the image below shows, there hasn’t been a below average October since the 1970s and November and December are no different.

The last below average October globally was 1983.
The last below average October globally was 1976!  The year before I was born.

So…. don’t let anyone tell you global warming has stopped, slowed down, or is happening somewhere else.  The trend is obvious.  The records are clear.

So what do we do?

This is a problem that we can all do our small part to help with, but it is still a national and global problem that demands national and global solutions.

Science is not partisan.  The Climate does not care if you are right wing or left wing, Green or Conservative, NDP or BC Liberal.  As we are seeing in Buffalo, the weather that this change in climate is forcing upon us does not distinguish between rich or poor, developed or undeveloped.

We need to demand our senior governments take the issue seriously.  Only provincial, national, and global governing bodies can put in the incentives and dis-incentives our economies need to be able to shift away from CO2 pollution.  These represent gigantic job-creating opportunities as we rebuild our electrical infrastructure, build out our renewable energy infrastructure and modify our transportation infrastructure.

What is really going to cause people to sit up and take notice and demand change?

Probably worldwide shortages of coffee (causing prices to rise at Timmy’s) and cocoa (used primarily for…. CHOCOLATE) caused by droughts in Brazil and pests and disease in West Africa.

I wish I was joking. ;)

Showers all day – Full Rain Friday – No 6ft of Snow

Updates are progressing normally.

There was a light rain shower this morning as I walked out the door and drove over the Hump.

We can expect these showers to continue through most of the day.  It should lighten up by afternoon and evening but Friday will have even more rain starting in the morning and lasting all day and into the evening.  We should get a total of around 30mm.

Dry Saturday – Wet Sunday:

The good news is one of the two weekend days should be dry.  We should escape any rain on Saturday but don’t expect that Sunday as another front is supposed to move in right away Sunday morning.

At least we’re not in Buffalo:

Can you imagine getting 6ft of snow in a day?  SIX FEET! Well that’s what happened in Buffalo on Tuesday.  Truly epic proportions.  It amounts to an entire years worth of snow in one day.

Wondering why that might be happening?  Here it is in a nutshell.

Here is today’s map of North American temperatures.

 

It looks kind normal right? Cold in the north, warmish down south.
It looks kind normal right? Cold in the north, warmish down south.

 

Here is a map of the temperature *anomaly*.  That is, the difference from normal.

North Hemisphere Temperature Anomaly map for November 20 shows huge area of below normal temperatures stretching from the Northern Prairies to Southern Florida with Alaska and Yukon balancing it out with warm temperatures.
North Hemisphere Temperature Anomaly map for November 20 shows huge area of below normal temperatures stretching from the Northern Prairies to Southern Florida with Alaska and Yukon balancing it out with warm temperatures.

You see that little gap of light blue between the two areas of purple down in the US?  Well, if you look closely you’ll see the right hand side of that gap is centred directly over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.  There is a huge fetch of wind happening between those two masses.  It is dragging very cold air over Lake Erie, over the Niagara Falls area, and straight onto poor Buffalo.

It’s literally the perfect storm for stupid amounts of snow.

Last image:

The jet stream. Big area of weakness over us.. huge dip into the southeast US.
The jet stream. Big area of weakness over us.. huge dip into the southeast US.

Our cold snap, and stagnant air mass, has been caused by the jet stream moving way to the north of us.  That has broken down somewhat as the flow has weakened and a strong West to East flow is coming at us soon, as you can see above.

Unfortunately the equal but opposite effect is lingering out East as the Jet dives way down into Florida, dragging cold air with it and causing the extreme snowfall we have seen in the eastern Great Lakes.

Thankfully, our rain tomorrow and on the Weekend is also a signal for our friends out East that their unusual weather is coming to an end.

By Friday the kink in the jet stream starts to move East and things straighten out over the continent....
By Friday the kink in the jet stream starts to move East and things straighten out over the continent….

The bad part?  What happens when it rains on top of 6-8ft of snow?

What’s the cause of it all?  Hmmmm, well, I have my suspicions and so do many scientists.  The quote below comes from an article in Smithsonian Mag on September 3rd this year.

This past year, the U.S. Midwest and Northeast suffered through a long, cold winter. The West, in contrast, saw a warm, dry season. Yet both were symptoms of the same cause—a leaky polar vortex. This situation gets even more counterintuitive, too. A contentious idea that’s been kicking around for a while posits that, as backwards as it seems, a weak polar vortex (and the resulting cold winter) might actually have been a sign of global warming. And now a new study adds evidence that this may, in fact, be the case.