Short Snow Event Tuesday Afternoon – Then Rain – Then 30cm? Podcast Up


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A little bit of everything – Snow potential Tuesday Afternoon

We have a lot going on in the next couple days.

First, the radar shows precipitation moving toward the Island in time for its predicted landfall this afternoon.

It will take until this afternoon for it to fill in completely.

There will be a chance of snow across the entire Island (in green and blue below) even though the model indicates low lying areas will be only rain (greys).

That said, by tonight, in the 7-10PM period, the model expects the warm air to arrive and all precipitation at low lying areas to change to rain.

Lake Cowichan sees heaviest rain Wednesday

Rain will intensify, particularly in the Lake Cowichan area on Wednesday morning as you can see by the dark black regions on the South Island below. Thankfully, this part of the event will still fall as snow in the higher elevations, especially Strathcona but Mt. Arrowsmith and points south will see mostly rainy except at the very highest points.

Weird Thursday/Friday – SpotWx says 30cm!?

I don’t believe it, and neither does the UWash model, but SpotWx says we could see up to 30cm of snow on Thursday and Friday from the scattered pockets of snow/rain expected to fill in after the main front has passed us Wednesday night.

The picture at the UWash model has pockets of precipitation, some falling as snow on Thursday and into Friday.

Could these make significant accumulations of 10-20cm? Maybe. But I would have to say the chances are very slim. Environment Canada is calling for “Periods of Snow or Rain” for those days. If they thought we would see a significant amount we’d likely already have a Special Weather Statement.

So I think SpotWx is the outlier here but there is potential at least for some flurries or brief snow showers on Thursday that could make driving an adventure if conditions change quickly.

Have a great day and drive safely out there!

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