Update 8:15PM Saturday – Alberni snow possible.
Some updates. The models have changed a little. I won’t go into detail until later tonight or early tomorrow morning as the models are just about to update again, but I thought it was worth mentioning that the models have gone quite cold. All are predicting temperatures between -5 and -10 for Monday morning with most closer to -10 for Port Alberni. There are also a few predicting snow to start in Port Alberni as esrly as Saturday night and lasting all day tomorrow but that is not consistent across all the models so I would not expect that to happen. The consensus still has greatest chance for snow on the East Coast starting late morning or afternoon Sunday. Env Can has issued Special Weather statements to notify people but no warnings yet. I will update this post again later tonight or early Sunday morning when the models go through their evening run.
As the rain tapers off today we’re already putting our mind to the end of the weekend when the models are predicting a drop in temperature, and with it, the possibility of snow.
First lets talk temperature:
You’ll know when it’s going to get cold when the wind shifts from the south to the north. The model expects that shift to happen just after midnight tonight. You can see the dip as it changes direction in the graph below.
By morning on Saturday we should be around 1º C in Port Alberni. It won’t warm up much and then we should be at or just below zero on Sunday morning with a windchill that might feel as low as -5º C. That windchill will be an indication of what is happening elsewhere!
It is going to be colder on the east side of the Island as they are exposed to the wind more. It might be -2º C in Nanaimo with a windchill down to -7.
Now… the snow maps. Here is Sunday morning from 7-10AM:
Notice the easterly winds exiting the Fraser Valley and North Easterlies out of Howe Sound. Those may pick up moisture over the Strait and cause snow from Nanaimo down to the Malahat on Sunday morning. So beware if you are on the road. Also notice there is a little bit of snow creeping in from the West as well but that is not likely to reach the Alberni Valley.
The risk of snow on the east coast looks like it will gradually move north up the coast throughout the day on Sunday and by the 4-7PM period it will find its way to the Courtenay/Denman Island area and may reach a little into the northern parts of the Alberni Valley. There is still snow activity in the Cowichan area as well.
The potential for snow intensifies in the early morning of Monday from 10PM-1AM. Quite significant snow potential for areas from Parksville all the way down to Victoria but again nothing for Port Alberni.
East Coast parts of the Island from Courtenay south could see between 1cm and 15cm. It’s going to depend very much where you are. It could cause problems for the Monday morning commute but thankfully no snow is expected at this point after sunrise on Monday so hopefully things get cleaned up during the day and driving is safe.
I’ll have another post probably on Sunday morning if the forecast changes significantly.
HAPPY FEBRUARY and HAPPY Groundhog Day TOMORROW!