FINAL UPDATE 9:00PM – Wind Warning Continued – 90kph Gusts Possible

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Tuesday 20 February 2018 - Tuesday: Mainly cloudy. High plus 1. Tuesday night: Clearing this evening. Increasing cloudiness before morning. Low minus 8. Wednesday: Cloudy. Periods of snow beginning in the morning and ending late in the afternoon. Amount 2 cm. High plus 1. Wednesday night: Clear. Low minus 6. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 5. Thursday night: Periods of snow. Low minus 4. Friday: Periods of snow. High plus 4. Friday night: Cloudy. Low minus 2. Saturday: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High plus 5. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low minus 1. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 6. Sunday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low minus 1. Monday: Cloudy. High 7.

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UPDATE 9:00PM

The Wind Warning has ended. Port Alberni escaped mostly unscathed. Our strongest gust was 54kph around 12:30PM today. Other parts of the Island didn’t fare as well and nearly 33,000 people are without power right now, mostly in the Cowichan Valley.

UPDATE 4:00PM
The wind warning has been continued for our area. The south is, and especially Cowichan Valley has felt the brunt of this storm so far but the threat still exists. We will see what happens. Stay tuned.

UPDATE 1:45PM

The wind has abated slightly. Our peak wind gust so far is 54.7kph around 12:25PM. The meat of the storm is yet to come though. Here is the highest resolution model of wind gusts for the 1-4PM hour when the winds will peak.

wgsfc.12.0000-2

There will be 60knot gusts off of Tofino, Ucluelet, Bamfield, Port Renfrew, Victoria and Vancouver (particularly Tsawassen terminal). Expect lots of ferry delays this afternoon and evening.

We will just have to see how this affects us. We’ve already got a good amount of wind. There is a power outage at the Lake and out Beaver Creek affecting around 50 customers total but the South Island as a whole has 46,000 people without power at last check.

Stay safe and enjoy the show!

UPDATE 12:25PM

The wind continues to build… already significant power outages, affecting over 24,000 customers, on the South and West Island but nothing in Port Alberni just yet. If you have pictures or videos please do share them. alberniweather@gmail.com or @Alberniweather or on Facebook or here in the Comments.

Screen Shot 2014-11-06 at 12.17.19 PM

UPDATE 11:45AM

Gusts starting to increase – latest highest gust – 49.9kph from South. Barometer starting to level off at 99.96kPa.

UPDATE 11:00AM – Whopper Low coming in with 75+knot following winds:

IMPORTANT – READ THROUGH TO END OF UPDATE

Environment Canada has continued the Wind Warning for our area:

Southwesterly winds 60 km/h gusting to 90 will develop this afternoon In the wake of the system, Winds will ease this evening as the low moves inland.

And they are not keeping that this is a deep and powerful low. The just completed morning model runs has this impressive image for the 7-10AM period just passed as the low approaches the Island.

Areas in white are 75+knot winds (140kph) offshore.
Areas in white are 75+knot winds (140kph) offshore. Animation here

The model shows the low impacting slightly south of where it predicted last night… which gives a higher potential of high winds in our area:

Impact between 10AM and 1PM.  50knot/100kph+ winds predicted in Tofino/Ucluelet areas
Impact between 10AM and 1PM. 50knot/100kph+ winds predicted in Tofino/Ucluelet areas

After 1PM you can see the pressure lines stack up along the west coast of the Island. This is likely to cause major wind.

Arrows point to the pressure lines.  Winds will blow perpendicular to the lines.
Arrows point to the pressure lines. Winds will blow perpendicular to the lines.

We are also setting records on the Island for temperature. Nanaimo is the current hotspot at 17º C. Alberniweather is currently reporting 15ºC. Our record for the day is 16.6ºC at the Airport. The wind should bring more warmth.

End of 11AM UPDATE
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Environment Canada has issued a rare Wind warning for our area.

Southwesterly winds 60 km/h gusting to 90 will develop this afternoon In the wake of the system, Winds will ease this evening as the low moves inland.

The 4AM satellite image shows the low approaching. It should track towards the northeast and come ashore near Gold River.
The 4AM satellite image shows the low approaching. It should track towards the northeast and come ashore near Gold River.
7AM wind gust model shows the low making landfall and spreading high winds across southwest Vancouver Island
7AM wind gust model shows the low making landfall and spreading high winds across southwest Vancouver Island

The second image from last nights model shows strong southerly gusts to 50knots (90kph) or more on the West Coast should be occurring now.

And indeed, the lighthouse report right now shows Cape Beale (near Bamfield) with gusts to 50 knots and Amphitrite Point (outside Ucluelet) gusting to 40knots.

Rain First For Us.

It is already raining and it will rain pretty hard this morning peaking before 11AM.

The peak of the rainfall will be between 7-10AM
The peak of the rainfall will be between 7-10AM

Once the rain passes the wind should shift to strong northwesterlies on the Coast and strong SouthEasterlies.

i will update this post throughout the day of there are newsworthy changes.

Stay safe out there and enjoy the weather!