Sat. Aug 17th, 2019

UPDATE 12:30PM – Will it Snow? Will it Snow? Will it Snow? Probably no. Not much.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 16 August 2019 - Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 15. Saturday: Mainly cloudy. High 24. Humidex 27. UV index 6 or high. Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Becoming cloudy overnight with 30 percent chance of drizzle before morning. Low 15. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with 40 percent chance of drizzle. High 23. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 24. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 14. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 14. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 20. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 12. Thursday: Sunny. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    17.0° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.52 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    85 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    17.0° C
    Heat Index
    17.0° C
    Dewpoint
    14.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 4:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    05:37
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (96% full)
    Civil Set
    21:07
    Day Length
    13:23:16
    Day High
    17.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    17.0° C @ 03:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.62 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.52 kPa @ 03:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    17.0° C @ 03:38 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3km/h @ 00:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Update 9:30PM – Models still split but the most reliable ones say rain, not snow.

Here are the various runs as of now:

Screen Shot 2015-12-16 at 9.19.10 PM Screen Shot 2015-12-16 at 9.18.50 PM Screen Shot 2015-12-16 at 9.18.38 PM Screen Shot 2015-12-16 at 9.18.24 PM Screen Shot 2015-12-16 at 9.18.09 PM Screen Shot 2015-12-16 at 9.17.55 PM Screen Shot 2015-12-16 at 9.17.34 PM

It seems to indicate that there is more chance of snow, but the highest resolution ones, including the UWash below, say no snow for most areas of the Alberni Valley.  It is much more likely at higher elevations and maybe in the Nanaimo area.

wa_snow1.17.0000

At this point, we’ll just have to see what happens.  The flurries, if they are going to happen will start by 8AM and end around noon.  Unless things really go nuts and it lasts all day, then everything is out the window. 🙂

Fingers Crossed! 🙂

 

UPDATE 12:30PM – Snow depends on how hard it rains – Potential messy Travel day especially Hump/Sutton/East Coast.

Had this passed on to me from a forecaster in Vancouver:

It shows snow falling at the Alberni Airport location all day tomorrow, but not much.  Only 2cm between 6AM Thursday and Friday noon. (20mm on the scale there).   The UWash model still doesn’t agree even though all the other American and Canadian insist we will get up to 20cm of snow Thursday and into Friday!

However, it is definitely going to be ugl for those travelling over the Sutton Pass or possibly the Hump (certainly the East side?).

And the story on the East Coast is a little more serious, the latest models from UWash have quite a bunch of snow (4in/10-15cm?) predicted to fall though ironically there is less agreement between the models on the East Coast situation than in Port Alberni.

 

wa_snow24.48.0000

It seems that it will all depend on the rate of rainfall.  The harder it rains, the more likely it will fall as snow and accumulate.

So no matter what, be prepared.


 

Original Post

As is often the case when we hover around the 1-2°C mark, the models and the forecasters are having a hard time trying to figure out if we are going to have rain, snow, flurries, sleet, or even freezing rain.  None of it is very certain.

I am leaning toward the side of not getting anything more than maybe some extra thick raindrops on Thursday morning.  We have not been below zero all week and there is no hint of Arctic outflow or any other source of freezing temperatures that would give us the conditions for snow to fall or especially stick except at higher elevations (Sutton Pass, deepest Beaver Creek, Sproat Lake, etc)

The best thing to do seems to be to let you know when the most likely time for snow will be if it does fall. That time is between about 4AM and 10AM Thursday morning, with the greatest likelihood in the 7-10AM period.

Here is the UWash picture for that time:

image

Other models and the EC forecast have anywhere from 5-20cm of snow predicted.  I would go with the EC forecast and expect that much in sheltered valley and high elevation areas but not at sea level.

That said, if it rains unusually hard it could pull down the snow level and cause the larger amounts, but that chance seems very remote.

In the end, it will be gone before the weekend anyway as the rain takes over for good.  Long story short, if you really want a guarantee on snow, head up the mountain. There should be plenty up there. 🙂

 

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