Warm and Dry week. Should you camp this weekend or May Long? :)

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Sunday 20 May 2018 - Sunday: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers this morning. High 21. UV index 6 or high. Sunday night: A few clouds. Increasing cloudiness after midnight. Fog patches developing overnight. Low 9. Monday: Clearing in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 24. Monday night: Clear. Low 9. Tuesday: Sunny. High 28. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 12. Wednesday: Sunny. High 29. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 11. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 27. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Friday: Sunny. High 22. Friday night: Clear. Low 11. Saturday: Sunny. High 23.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    12.9° C
    0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.62 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 4.3 km/h
    gusting 12.9 km/h
    Humidity
    80 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    12.9° C
    Heat Index
    12.9° C
    Dewpoint
    9.6° C
    UV
    0.9
    Solar
    143 W/m2
    Last Updated: 8:50:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:48
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (33% full)
    Civil Set
    21:43
    Day Length
    13:15:45
    Day High
    13.9° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.5° C @ 05:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.62 kPa @ 08:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.43 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.5° C @ 05:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.9° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 11.7km/h @ 01:40 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    151W/m2 @ 08:49 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.9 @ 08:46 Tdy.

Update: Got to see the #Mercurytransit!

A perfect morning!

It is going to be warm and dry and mainly sunny for at least the next 7 days.  However, the real question is, should you go for that camping trip with the kids this coming 4 day weekend (in SD70, Pro Day Friday 13th and Curriculum Day Monday 16th). Or should you wait for May Long Weekend.  Now of course going out 16 days means the confidence is much lower than a normal forecast.  But it should give us hints.

All of this is from the GEPS multi-model system at Spotx.com

Screen Shot 2016-05-09 at 7.44.27 AM

As you can see there is not very much cloud cover expected until at least Saturday.  After that, it looks fairly cloudy until Sunday or Monday of the May Long Weekend.

Don’t equate clouds with a whole lot of rain though. As you can see below, the long range outlook has less than 30mm accumulating from now to May 24 with about 6mm of that falling between this Thursday and next Monday and 10mm of that falling between next Thursday and Victoria Day Monday.

Screen Shot 2016-05-09 at 7.42.21 AM

The hottest days currently in the forecast are this coming Thursday and Friday which should get up to the high twenties and then it backs off on the weekend and looks like it will stay nearer normal temperatures below or in the low 20s through May Long Weekend.Screen Shot 2016-05-09 at 7.50.37 AM

 

 

So.  If you have the ability to pick between this weekend and Victoria day/May Long weekend, and you are supremely concerned about weather, I would pick this coming weekend.  However, if your plans already lock you into May Long Weekend, don’t worry, the forecast looks good.

Oh, and the fire danger rating is forecast to remain at HIGH for the next 4 days.

Have a great Monday!

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