Warm and Dry week. Should you camp this weekend or May Long? :)

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Friday 23 February 2018 - Friday night: A few flurries and rain showers ending near midnight then clearing. Low minus 3. Saturday: Sunny. Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon then 60 percent chance of showers late in the afternoon. High 7. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low zero. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. High 7. Sunday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: Cloudy. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Rain. High 7. Wednesday night: Rain or snow. Low plus 1. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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A perfect morning!

It is going to be warm and dry and mainly sunny for at least the next 7 days.  However, the real question is, should you go for that camping trip with the kids this coming 4 day weekend (in SD70, Pro Day Friday 13th and Curriculum Day Monday 16th). Or should you wait for May Long Weekend.  Now of course going out 16 days means the confidence is much lower than a normal forecast.  But it should give us hints.

All of this is from the GEPS multi-model system at Spotx.com

Screen Shot 2016-05-09 at 7.44.27 AM

As you can see there is not very much cloud cover expected until at least Saturday.  After that, it looks fairly cloudy until Sunday or Monday of the May Long Weekend.

Don’t equate clouds with a whole lot of rain though. As you can see below, the long range outlook has less than 30mm accumulating from now to May 24 with about 6mm of that falling between this Thursday and next Monday and 10mm of that falling between next Thursday and Victoria Day Monday.

Screen Shot 2016-05-09 at 7.42.21 AM

The hottest days currently in the forecast are this coming Thursday and Friday which should get up to the high twenties and then it backs off on the weekend and looks like it will stay nearer normal temperatures below or in the low 20s through May Long Weekend.Screen Shot 2016-05-09 at 7.50.37 AM

 

 

So.  If you have the ability to pick between this weekend and Victoria day/May Long weekend, and you are supremely concerned about weather, I would pick this coming weekend.  However, if your plans already lock you into May Long Weekend, don’t worry, the forecast looks good.

Oh, and the fire danger rating is forecast to remain at HIGH for the next 4 days.

Have a great Monday!

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