Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

Updated 10PM – Upper twenties “absolutely possible”? Current high altitude temps “Absolutely record breaking”

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 November 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 4 overnight. Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. High 8. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 7. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    4.4° C
    -1.3 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.6 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    ESE 4.4 km/h
    gusting 8.0 km/h
    Humidity
    90 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    4.4° C
    Heat Index
    4.4° C
    Dewpoint
    2.9° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (73% full)
    Civil Set
    17:11
    Day Length
    12:04:14
    Day High
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.9° C @ 04:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.87 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.6 kPa @ 18:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 02:24 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.0km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    482W/m2 @ 12:21 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:59 Tdy.

Update 10PM:

We may not have got up to the 30°C, which would have been full on nuts.  But:

Update 1PM:

It is currently a very pleasant 18ºC.  Near a short term record but there is no way that we will reach 30ºC and 25ºC is doubtful as well.  I am glad honestly… but I do want to see if other areas might reach those lofty heights.

Update 11AM

The US High Resolution Rapid Response model for 9AM still says it will “Feel Like” 26.5ºC.

——- Original Post —–

Contrary to the official Environment Canada forecast, the UWash model continues to insist that we could see 30°C today and locations in the Fraser Valley could see even hotter temperatures.

This would obviously smash records but UWash has been the outlier… However, now we are starting to see some possible verification from the morning observations and short term models.

Despite the low cloud, temperatures at high altitude this morning are “Absolutely record breaking” at nearly 22°C. Higher than anything observed before…. The graph below shows the current sounding aloft in Vancouver of 21.6C.  It would be normal as an extreme maximum (thin red line) for July, not April.

That certainly lends credence to the very high temperatures predicted by UWash.

Mr. Doyle is a former meteorologist, I asked him if he thought the UWash model would verify and his response:

The very short range, high resolution models released at 6AM do appear to be  coming around to that as well with “feels like” temperatures over up to 27°C.

image image

They actually changed the temperature scale on last night’s UWash model run to the summer scale in order to capture the high temperatures past 30ºC it was predicting in Washington and the Fraser Valley.  It actually has temperatures up to 33ºC (92ºF) in the southern reaches of Puget Sound.  Crazy.

wa_tsfc.24.0000-2

The short term tempersture record at the Airport is only 19.7°C from 2009.  We will easily beat that. The all time all station record for the day is 24°C set at the Somass station in 1986.  Obviously if this forecast pulls through we could smash that.  The big daddy for temperature records would be the monthly extreme for April which currently is 29.5°C set on April 29th, 1998

The fact that our best computer models are even suggesting, right or wrong, that we could break that record weeks earlier in April should give us all pause.

Stay tuned, and have a water bottle ready just in case.