Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

Two more days of heat then comes Rain – The Joy and Work of the Martin Mars

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 November 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 4 overnight. Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. High 8. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 7. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.1° C
    -1.9 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.61 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NNE 0.1 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    84 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    6.1° C
    Heat Index
    6.1° C
    Dewpoint
    3.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (73% full)
    Civil Set
    17:11
    Day Length
    12:04:14
    Day High
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.9° C @ 04:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.87 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.61 kPa @ 15:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 02:24 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.0km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    482W/m2 @ 12:21 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:59 Tdy.

While the specific details have changed slightly, the models have still held firm on the potential for real, drenching rain starting Friday and lasting into next week.

Until we see you again Hawaii.

 

First, I want to say something about the Martin Mars which is, as of today, no longer on contract with the Province of BC.

The crew did an incredible job on the fires that they were called to and not only that, the very fact this plane was the in the air gave great happiness to thousands, maybe even a million, in this province. There is a deep, unconditional love for both Martin Mars aircraft in the Port Alberni area and beyond and it is due to their valiant history, their overwhelming power, and their mission to serve and protect the public from the most terrible of dangers. 

There are not many things in the world that evoke such pure joy and feeling of security from such a broad cross-section of society. I would say we really don’t know how lucky we are… but… I think we do, or we wouldn’t all run outside at the first hint of rumble from those 2500 Horsepower Engines.  There are things that governments purchase or do that are for the emotional and social well being of society.  In those respects, and in these very unsettling times, setting aside the facts of their devastating effect on fires, the social value of the Mars program, I believe, has proven once again to be truly immeasurable.

As the climate changes and the weather becomes more uncertain, we will need that proven strength and feeling of comfort more often. I hope that when the numbers — 60-75c per litre dropped and 3 of 4 fires (Nelson, Cowichan and Great Central) stopped in their tracks — are tallied at the end of this season that the efforts and value of the Martin Mars program and her crew shine through enough for the Province to do the right thing.

OK, back to the weather:

Wednesday and Thursday last hot days

If you have been spending a lot of time at the lake, you will likely want to get out there today and/or tomorrow.  The rains this weekend will definitely cool the lake. 🙂 We should get up to 28°C today and a little less Thursday under Sunny skies.

Rain bands shift, focus on South, West and North Island and Vancouver

Between Friday and Tuesday the forecast is for slightly more than 60mm. There may also be windy periods but I will not address those until we are closer and have more precise model output on Friday.

The current picture looks like this:

The first pulse of rain has shifted south a bit and is now focused primarily on the South Island and Vancouver.  I worry a little about this because we have seen this pattern a couple times this summer and the anticipated rain has dried up completely.  It does seem that this one is for real though, so lets hope.

It will start raining in Victoria and Vancouver first around sunrise Friday morning.

image

 

The rain will spread North and West to Port Alberni by afternoon on Friday while it continues unabated in Victoria and Vancouver. Note we are jusy on the north edge so there is a possibility this misses us. Lets hope not.image

 

The rainfall intensifies towards the north through the afternoon on Friday and we should definitely be wet by this time while southern areas might see their first break.  This, however, is the strongest period of rainfall for Friday.  Total accumulation is predicted around 4mm. Not much, but it is a start.  We need every drop.
image

 

It starts to get more interesting on Saturday when the rain showers are much more disorganized, but widespread. Serious showers occur in the 8-11AM timeframe in our area and in all sectors.image

Things get more purposeful in the evening on Satursday as we see a bigger push from the West delivering a healthy 8mm between 5-8PM. Total accumulation for Saturday (5AM Sat-5AM Sun) is around 20mm. That’s more like it.
image

On Sunday we have more widespread showers again particularly in the afternoon delivering another 15mm or so before clearing for a bit.image

We get another signficant push from the west late Monday night. Perhaps 20mm will fall Monday up to 5AM Tuesday focusing mainly just before midnight.

 

image image

And finally, above we have Tuesday again bringjng showers in the afternoon,  Totals for the day are small and uncertain at this point though. Maybe 8mm at the most which brings us to just under 70mm for the whole affair.

Our normal rainfall amount for August and September is 40 and 60mm respectively.  We could go from “drought” to above normal rainfall for the month in a matter of days. I will not pretend to know whether that truly gets us out of “drought” conditions, or if this is just going to flush straight rough he system and we return to the dry, clear pattern of the past many months. After this storm passes there is 25mm expected to fall between Sept 1-10.

That’s it for now folks, have a great Wednesday!

2 thoughts on “Two more days of heat then comes Rain – The Joy and Work of the Martin Mars

  1. Is this the remnants of a typhoon? I heard the other day that this is the time of year that we get our precipitation from those.

    1. There is Energy from the West Pacific looping up through the Aleutians via the jet stream and that may be loosely related to the Typhoons that have impacted Japan recently but I don’t believe the low itself (which is spinning a few hundred miles to the west of us) was formerly a typhoon. You are right though that this is the time of year that that sort of thing happens and the West Pacific has been particularly active this year likely thanks to El Niño.

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