Wed. Nov 13th, 2019

Thunderstorm just for Port Alberni this afternoon?

It’s a pretty nice day! However, now in the afternoon there is a possibility for thunderstorms. If you hear thunder or see lightning please comment here!

The UWash model has been consistently predicting a developing area of rain, and possible thunderstorm right in the Alberni Valley this afternoon. It has been there in the models since Monday!

So let’s see if it’s right. Let’s *not* take this as an be all/end all look at whether every forecast is right or wrong ever :). I just want to see how accurate it might be this time since it has been so consistent.

For the record though, the model had consistently predicted activity on the East side of the Island yesterday, and it was bang (boom!) on.

Here is what it is expecting in the next few hours:

The model has thunder detected in the area, but only in the 2-5PM period. Everything is “quiet” after 5PM… the rain showers might last longer.

The models show the most convective energy… thunderstorm potential… surrounding but not necessarily on top of Port Alberni in that period. But it could certainly be close.

As for rain, there is no rain predicted in the Valley before 5PM. Here is the picture in the 4-5PM period.

Then up pops some rain in the 5-6PM hour… notice it is concentrated at the end of Beaver Creek road. So don’t expect it to start in the City itself.

It shifts to the south and east, down the Valley toward and over the City in the 6-7PM hour.

And then it’s gone in the 7-8PM hour.

So what’s going to happen!? We’ll see 🙂