October 23, 2020

The Atmospheric River on the Equinox. Expect rain this week after final pleasant summer day. COVID School exposures list.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 00:28 AM PDT Friday 23 October 2020

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 22 October 2020 - Thursday night: Increasing cloudiness. Wet snow over higher terrain overnight. Rain beginning late this evening. Low plus 3. Friday: Rain. Wet snow over higher terrain in the morning. Becoming windy in the morning. High plus 5. Friday night: A few showers ending in the evening then clearing. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 7 overnight. Saturday: Sunny. High plus 5. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Sunday: Sunny. High plus 5. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low zero. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 11. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 12.

The air is clear! Our first Atmospheric River will greet us for the fall equinox which is 6AM Tuesday morning.

Here is the jet stream forecast starting with today and moving to every day this week. The more it points at us the more moisture we are likely to get on our doorstep. You can see that today should be mostly dry whereas Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are probably going to be wet. Maybe very wet.

Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday

Notice the jet points back at us on Saturday and Sunday too. It is definitely fall.

How much rain to expect

Zooming into our area, here are some totals and times.

Expect only very light showers today as the total up to 5PM is just 2mm for most regions around the central Island. The South Island stays dry. The west gets a bit more.

Rain Scale – Millimeters on top, centi-inches on bottom. (1024cin = 10 inches)
Rain Scale – Millimeters on top, centi-inches on bottom. (1024cin = 10 inches)

Between Monday 5PM and Tuesday 5PM we should get another 4mm along with northern parts of the Island including Courtenay. The west coast and mountain ranges will be getting significantly more.

Rain Scale – Millimeters on top, centi-inches on bottom. (1024cin = 10 inches)
Rain Scale – Millimeters on top, centi-inches on bottom. (1024cin = 10 inches)

Between Tuesday 5PM and Wednesday 5PM appears the wettest for Port Alberni with between 16-30mm falling in that 24hr period. More than 100mm is expected innthe west coast ranges. Beware for floods and washouts on Highway 4.

Rain Scale – Millimeters on top, centi-inches on bottom. (1024cin = 10 inches)

I’ll post more detailed rain times Tuesday when things a little more certain.

COVID 19 School Exposures.

If you haven’t seen this already, here is the link at Island Health where they will list schools that have COVID19 exposure events. Currently there are none on the Island!

That’s it! Enjoy the final day of summer!

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