Update 8PM – The Storm is forming


Original Post — Third low of the week on the way

There it is. (GOES-West Loop)

You can see the moisture emanating from the core of the storm which hasn’t fully formed yet. It will rapidly intensify in the coming 12 hours and take on a more symmetrical, circular shape.

Environment Canada Statements and Warnings issued.

EC has issued wind warnings this afternoon for West and East Vancouver Island and Victoria and statements for the rest of the Island including Inland, Victoria and North sections. You can see them all here:

Here are the remarks from the Inland VI Statement

Remarks: A rapidly deepening low pressure system from the Pacific will approach Vancouver Island on Sunday. Rain and strong winds will begin on Sunday morning.

Southeast winds of 70 to 90 km/h with gusts possibly exceeding 100 km/h are expected over North Vancouver Island. Southeasterly winds of 60 to 70 km/h with possible gusts to 90 will develop through east-west oriented valleys on Vancouver Island and along coastal regions near the Strait of Georgia and Haro Strait.

On Monday morning, as the low pressure system approaches the south coast, southeasterly winds will strengthen over the inner south coast. Western sections of Metro Vancouver will experience their strongest winds Monday morning with southeasterly gusts potentially exceeding 80 km/h before easing Monday evening.

As of now, there is increasing confidence for the strongest winds to be over West Vancouver Island and that the low pressure system will track across northern Vancouver Island on Monday evening.

Additional wind warnings may be issued as the event unfolds.

Timing – Starts Sunday morning

There will be two waves with this storm, one on Sunday, and one on Monday when the low comes ashore. Winds from the first front to hit from the system. Should kick up as the sun rises Sunday morning. Expect Ferry delays all day Sunday.

wind gust scale

5AM-8AM and 8AM-11AM pictures show winds to 50-55 knots (90-95kph) along the east and west coast of the South Island.

The rain will begin at the same time and will likely last throughout the event though probably not to rain warning levels.

Short Break Sunday afternoon – Then here comes the Low.

The first front will move through by Sunday afternoon and the winds should die down. However, this is what is waiting for us Sunday evening.

A historic 950hPa (950mb/95.0kPa) low aimed squarely at Vancouver Island. The models seem to have come together and the centre is expected to come ashore on Northern Vancouver Island (which is better than previous predictions).

Thankfully, it is expected to weaken by the time it hits land and will do so around 980hPa probably near Kyuquot but it will also take a while to get here. Landfall is expected around 8PM on Monday. That means we can expect strong winds from Sunday night all the way through Monday.

Timing for Wind on Sunday/Monday

Strong winds will pick up again in the 8-11PM period. We can see 35-40knot (60-70kph) winds in Georgia Strait and 45-50knot (80-90kph) winds from Bamfield to Tofino.

wind gust scale

This will continue through the night Sunday with East Coast building to 90kph by 5AM Monday.

This final image below shows the low just about to come onshore at 8PM on Monday at 980hPa. Strong winds particularly on the west coast and near Campbell River will be constant throughout the day Monday.

Wind and rain will ease overnight on Monday. Hopefully we get a chance to dry out on Tuesday!

Batten down the hatches!

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