Close Looks at time and amounts

Saturday felt like the first day of fall as the weather shifted and the winds picked up. It’s getting us ready for what’s to come. A strong storm in the Pacific that is now approaching the coast and deepening.

Right now it’s forecast to be that 98.6 kPa low directly west of Washington and Oregon states.

The forecast picture for the 8PM-11PM period Saturday night shows the low starting to form and deepen as it nears the west coast.

In exactly 24 hours it’s expected to deepen dramatically to its strongest and lowest pressure of 96.2 kPa and stall there for a few hours.

The forecast for Sunday night 8PM-11PM has the low as a tight circle of close lines indicating strong winds. The low is now 96.1 kPa.

That’s going to produce strong winds here on Vancouver Island.

Wind forecast (rain next)

There is already a wind warning up for the West and East Coasts of the Island expecting winds up to 100kph on exposed parts of the West Coast and 90kph on the East Coast.

The timing is for the winds to start building in the evening and peak in the midnight to 3AM time frame and then gradually back off a little late on Monday morning but they remain strong all day Monday. There could be ferry delays or cancellations in both the evening on Sunday and on Monday.

A wind map showing the point of strongest winds. We see gusts to 50 knots near Campbell River.
wind gust scale

Rain Totals

It should stay relatively dry through the day on Sunday, but rain will come.

This is effectively 12hrs of precipitation between 5PM and 5AM as no rain is expected before 5PM.

The 12 hour total between 5PM Sunday and 5AM Mondays are, according to the map below:

  • Port Alberni: 10mm
  • Cameron Lake: 20mm
  • Lake Cowichan and Courtenay: 30mm
  • Southern parts of East Vancouver Island up to 40mm
  • West Coast and Mountains: 40-100mm

And that’s just getting started.

This is the 24hr map between 5AM Monday and 5AM Tuesday. This is a concern.

The 24hr period between 5AM Monday and 5AM Tuesday will see further accumulations:

  • Port Alberni: 30-40 mm
  • Cameron Lake: 40 mm (Maybe more?)
  • Lake Cowichan: 20 mm
  • Courtenay: 60mm
  • Southern parts of East Vancouver Island up to 20mm
  • West Coast and Mountains: 60-200mm

Cameron Lake concern

If the totals are accurate for Sunday night then I am hopeful Cameron Lake bluffs will remain stable. However, the sustained rain on Monday and into Tuesday is a concern, but there is also the possibility that the rain bands move just to the north of the Alberni Valley and miss us completely. We’ll see.

For now, the forecasted times of heaviest rain, and so perhaps most likelihood of slope failure, in the Cameron Lake area look to be the following:

  • Around Midnight Sunday/Monday
  • Around 8AM Monday morning
  • Around Noon Monday
  • Midnight-5AM Tuesday

Obviously that Monday morning and noontime is of the greatest concern as far as traffic.

You still have Sunday to put away the yard furniture!

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