Updated: Heavy Rainfall Warning issued for northern sections – East Vancouver.

Environment Canada has just issued a heavy rainfall warning for amounts up to 50mm for the area north of Nanoose Bay.

Here is the quote:

3:45 PM PDT Wednesday 31 July 2019
Rainfall warning in effect for:
East Vancouver Island – Courtenay to Campbell River
East Vancouver Island – Nanoose Bay to Fanny Bay
Rain, at times heavy, is expected.

Up to 50 mm rainfall for East Vancouver Island – Nanoose Bay to Fanny Bay and Courtenay to Campbell River.

An unseasonably strong Pacific front is poised to drench Vancouver Island and parts of the south coast beginning on Thursday. The front will tap into subtropical moisture which will amplify the front and help to enhance the rainfall totals.

Rainfall amount of 50 mm is expected from Bowser to Campbell River from Thursday morning to Friday morning with 30 mm expected near Qualicum Beach.

Here’s the word from Armel Castellan at Environment Canada for Port Alberni.

Here is the updated Special Weather Statement for Port Alberni / Inland VI.

4:02 PM PDT Wednesday 31 July 2019
Special weather statement in effect for:
Inland Vancouver Island
Early August Heavy Rainfall for Vancouver Island and the South Coast of British Columbia.

An unseasonably strong Pacific front is poised to drench Vancouver Island and parts of the south coast beginning on Thursday. The front will tap into subtropical moisture which will amplify the front and help to enhance the rainfall totals.

The main area of rain will begin over west and inland Vancouver Island overnight. The rain will spread to areas of east Vancouver Island from Nanaimo to the Comox Valley, and over the Sunshine Coast on Thursday morning. The rain will intensify and become heavy on Thursday afternoon.

Over Howe Sound, Whistler, and northern sections of Metro Vancouver there may be some scattered showers on Thursday ahead of the main plume of moisture associated with the front. The main area of rain will develop later on Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening as the front moves eastward.

The heavy rain will end Thursday night as the front pushes eastward. In the front’s wake there will be showers with a risk of thunderstorms and gusty winds on Friday morning.

There remains some uncertainty with respect to the location of where the heaviest precipitation amounts will occur. Stay tuned to Environment and Climate Change Canada for all the latest forecasts.

Original post (detailed forecast below is unchanged)

We have quite the weekend ahead. It is going to start rainy and windy, so if you are camping Thursday, get that tarp out and tie it down! Things get better Friday and the rest of the Weekend is beautiful so fear not! We’re tough! 🙂

Hour by hour forecast

Here is an idea of how the rain will progress. If you are in Port Alberni, the West Coast, Courtenay and points north, the rain will start earlier on Thursday and last longer through Friday.

5-8AM Thursday – rain begins on north of Courtenay and on West Coast.
8-11AM Thursday – showers begin in Courtenay and Port Alberni
11AM-2PM showers continue to spread into Port Alberni and Courtenay/Bowser.
5-8PM – Heavy rain is on the West Coast and begins to spread inland. Showers continue in Port Alberni and Courtenay but haven’t moved into Nanaimo yet.
8-11PM Showers begin to move south down the Island toward Parksville.
11PM-2AM Friday – Rain begins to spread across the entire South Island.
2-5AM Friday – pockets of Heavy rain continue over the entire Island.
5-8AM Friday. Rain backs off to showers in Port Alberni and ends on East Coast south of Courtenay.
8-11AM Friday Things have dried up completely. Only a risk of thunderstorms remains for the late morning and afternoon.

Totals from this unusual August Pineapple Express.

The current charts indicate from 16 to up to 30mm of rain for Port Alberni and Courtenay between 5PM Thursday and noon Friday. Double that on the West Coast and half that or less from Parksville and Nanaimo south.

The closer you are to the hills or west coast, the more you will get.

Rain Scale – Millimeters on top, centi-inches on bottom. (1024cin = 10 inches)
Rain total 5PM-5PM Thursday – Friday

Wind is coming too.

This is a real fall-ish storm, complete with windiness! Here is the wind in the system as it approaches the Island on Thursday afternoon. Gusts to 30 knots or 50kph.

10kt = 20kph ; 30kt = 55kph ; 50kt = 90kph

Gusty winds should pick up around the island Thursday afternoon but should back off in the evening before picking up stronger with the rain on Thursday night in the 11PM-2AM period.

The gusty winds should continue well into the morning on the east coast especially as the low moves across central Vancouver Island and onto the mainland.

8-11AM Friday Winds

The rest of the weekend looks beautiful!

The good news is all this should be done by Friday afternoon! It should still get up into the mid 20s on Friday and the sun will return on Saturday, Sunday and Monday with temperatures in the mid-high 20s!

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