Snowfall Warning Issued – 10-20cm – possible Freezing Rain

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 11:09 AM PST Thursday 22 February 2018

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PST Thursday 22 February 2018 - Thursday: Sunny. High plus 5. Thursday night: Increasing cloudiness. Low minus 5. Friday: Cloudy. Snow beginning early in the morning. Snow mixed with rain late in the afternoon. Snowfall amount 5 to 10 cm. High plus 2. Friday night: Periods of snow. Low minus 3. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Saturday night: Periods of rain or snow. Low zero. Sunday: Showers. High plus 5. Sunday night: Cloudy periods with 40 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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Final Update 9PM Sunday

The warm winds have come. We have gone from 0°C to 4°C in less than 30 minutes and the wind has switched to the SSW.  Strong winds are reported on the East side. 50-60kph at Hornby Island.

Expect the Snowfall Warning to be lifted soon.

Update 12PM

Drizzle is starting in some parts of town, ice pellets at Alberniweather. Totally dependent on local temperature and how hard it is precipitating. Heavier it is, more it will cool the air and turn to snow as long as we are within a degree or two of freezing.

Update 9AM Sunday

We received just a small amount of snow overnight but the main precipitiation is still yet to come.  EC expects us to stay at or below freezing and for everything to fall as snow until later tonight.

It should begin to snow more heavily around noon and then pick up steam through the rest of the day and also gradually warm. Strongest precipitation will be tonight around 3AM. That should be past the point of warming and should be rain. We shall see.

Stay safe on the roads. So far, they are pretty good.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Environment Canada has issued a snowfall warning for Port Alberni and all of Vancouver Island except Northern sections.

They forecast 10-20cm of snow but the models are very very uncertain on how the warm air will interact with the entrenched cold air.   5-10cm is expected in coastal areas.

Some models have us above zero right away over night, those are the freezing rain and rainy ones.  Others have us staying cold.  Those are the snowy ones.

The precip will start after midnight tonight.  The short term models that are closer to present time have us warming almost right away and less snow. The longer term ones that are from 10AM today have us cooler and snowier.

I am inclined to go with the broader long term ones that has us snowier, like EC but I would also be very wary of thr possibility of freezing rain in Port Alberni. So be careful out there!

Here are all the different options:

The High Resolution and short term HRRR model has us warming to 2 °C by 7AM Sunday but produces freezing rain overnight tonight into Sunday morning.

The short term RAP is similar.

The Canadian GEM is very different, it expect us to stay cold throuh Sunday and as a result has 12cm of snow falling. This is clearly the one EC is banking on.

The US NAM is more on the warm and wet side but has quite a mix.

The US GFS is also on the cool side but has less precipitation actually falling so less snow overall but definitely on the cool side.

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