November 29, 2020

Slight improvement today but smoke still thick until weekend. New links provided. Rain and a Wind Storm possible next week.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Sunday 29 November 2020 - Sunday night: Rain at times heavy. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Temperature rising to 6 by morning. Monday: Rain ending in the morning then clearing. Gusty winds. High 8. UV index 1 or low. Monday night: Clear. Becoming partly cloudy late in the evening. Fog patches developing late in the evening. Low minus 2. Tuesday: Sunny. High plus 5. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low minus 2. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 3. Wednesday night: Increasing cloudiness. Low zero. Thursday: Cloudy. High plus 5. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 3. Friday: Cloudy. High 10. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 10.

A good progression

Ever since Tuesday afternoon when we saw the sun ever so briefly, the overall Smoke concentration has been slowly lessening. The inversion is still strong though so it is keep the smoke locked to the ground. Here is this morning’s graph. (See it updated on the front page).

24hr Air Quality Index graph

We are currently at an AQI of 165 which is considered Unhealthy. AQI is a US EPA standard. Here is a map from the NOAA showing AQI rating across the continent. Click it to go to the page itself.

We were above 200 in “Very Unhealthy” Conditions on Monday. You can see current AQI readings here on the front page on both the data view and almanac view.

Smoke forecast likely into weekend.

The forecast for the smoke continues to be difficult but Environment Canada expects it to linger until at least Friday. This jives with the Firesmoke.ca forecast available from the BC Ministry of Environment (www.bcairquality.ca). Click the image below to go to the map.

Forecast for Friday morning at fire smoke.ca

Keep an eye on the Venting Index Poor to Fair today.

An excellent indicator of whether air quality will improve is the venting index generated by the BC Ministry of environment. It is text based too, which makes it fast.

You can see there the current values, forecast for today, and tomorrow. All areas of the south coast including Central Vancouver Island are Poor as of 7AM but the Fraser Valley and Central VI are expected to move to Fair later today and tomorrow. That should hopefully mean we see some smoke lifting.

I have added all these links and more to the “Rivers – Fire – Smoke” section under Reports and Links in the Menu at the top of the page.

Weather might turn rain stormy next week.

We have a mix of dry and wet conditions in the next few days. (Without access to the sky, does it matter if it is cloudy or sunny? 🙂

However, next week the very long term forecasts have a serious rain event Tuesday or Wednesday as a deep low in the Gulf of Alaska pushes away the high pressure that has kept us dry and Smokey and replaces with a strong moist Pineapple Express.

The third image shows potential amounts of rainfall of 100mm between Tuesday and Thursday night next week as well as strong winds.

We should not take this as gospel yet as it is still pretty far in the forecast, but consider this a first warning that fall is coming!

That’s enough for today! Happy Wednesday. Stay safe out there, try to limit time outside especially if you are doing any physical activity for any length of time.

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