Tue. Oct 22nd, 2019

Significantly less rain total expected from UWash vs. EC

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 21 October 2019 - Monday night: Showers ending after midnight then clearing. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 8. Tuesday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 14. UV index 2 or low. Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing before morning. Low plus 3. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 12. Wednesday night: Cloudy. Low 6. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 14. Thursday night: Showers. Low 8. Friday: Periods of rain. High 14. Friday night: Clear. Low plus 3. Saturday: Sunny. High 12. Saturday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Sunday: Sunny. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    10.4° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.07 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    10.4° C
    Heat Index
    10.4° C
    Dewpoint
    10.3° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 2:40:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    07:17
    Moon Phase
    Waning crescent (40% full)
    Civil Set
    18:49
    Day Length
    13:03:39
    Day High
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    10.3° C @ 01:34 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.07 kPa @ 02:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.78 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    10.3° C @ 01:34 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 2km/h @ 01:35 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Looking at the forecast totals for rain over the next couple days and I am seeing significantly different rain total amounts.

Environment Canada is predicting 10-15mm tonight and another 20mm on Friday in their text forecasts.

Compare that to the UWash WRF model that is only predicting up to 16 mm (blue) to fall in the 48hrs between Thursday and Saturday morning.

wa_pcp48.60.0000

That is in contrast to the West part of the Island that will likely see 30-60mm according to both the UWash and EC forecasts.

We’ll see who is right.  It will definitely be showery and damp for the next few days including into Saturday.  We will get a bit of a break Sunday morning before one final system affecting the whole Island moves through Sunday afternoon and evening.

After that, next week looks much drier and possibly even a few sunny breaks!

Happy Thursday!