Significantly less rain total expected from UWash vs. EC

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Saturday 21 July 2018 - Saturday: Mainly sunny. High 27. UV index 8 or very high. Saturday night: Clear. Low 11. Sunday: Sunny. High 32. Humidex 34. UV index 8 or very high. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 34. Monday night: Clear. Low 14. Tuesday: Sunny. High 33. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 14. Wednesday: Sunny. High 32. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 14. Thursday: Sunny. High 28. Thursday night: Clear. Low 14. Friday: Sunny. High 27.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    23.2° C
    1.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.07 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N 0.5 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    45 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    23.2° C
    Heat Index
    23.2° C
    Dewpoint
    10.6° C
    UV
    6.1
    Solar
    873 W/m2
    Last Updated: 12:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (70% full)
    Civil Set
    21:54
    Day Length
    13:25:39
    Day High
    23.2° C @ 12:18 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.3° C @ 06:21 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.13 kPa @ 08:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.95 kPa @ 03:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.3° C @ 06:21 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    23.2° C @ 12:18 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 5.2km/h @ 10:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    875W/m2 @ 12:19 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.1 @ 12:17 Tdy.

Looking at the forecast totals for rain over the next couple days and I am seeing significantly different rain total amounts.

Environment Canada is predicting 10-15mm tonight and another 20mm on Friday in their text forecasts.

Compare that to the UWash WRF model that is only predicting up to 16 mm (blue) to fall in the 48hrs between Thursday and Saturday morning.

wa_pcp48.60.0000

That is in contrast to the West part of the Island that will likely see 30-60mm according to both the UWash and EC forecasts.

We’ll see who is right.  It will definitely be showery and damp for the next few days including into Saturday.  We will get a bit of a break Sunday morning before one final system affecting the whole Island moves through Sunday afternoon and evening.

After that, next week looks much drier and possibly even a few sunny breaks!

Happy Thursday!