May 30, 2020

Significantly less rain total expected from UWash vs. EC

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Saturday 30 May 2020 - Saturday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 20. UV index 3 or moderate. Saturday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Sunday: Cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon. High 18. UV index 6 or high. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Monday: Sunny. High 21. Monday night: Clear. Low 8. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Low 9. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 17. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 17. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Friday: Cloudy. High 15.

Looking at the forecast totals for rain over the next couple days and I am seeing significantly different rain total amounts.

Environment Canada is predicting 10-15mm tonight and another 20mm on Friday in their text forecasts.

Compare that to the UWash WRF model that is only predicting up to 16 mm (blue) to fall in the 48hrs between Thursday and Saturday morning.

wa_pcp48.60.0000

That is in contrast to the West part of the Island that will likely see 30-60mm according to both the UWash and EC forecasts.

We’ll see who is right.  It will definitely be showery and damp for the next few days including into Saturday.  We will get a bit of a break Sunday morning before one final system affecting the whole Island moves through Sunday afternoon and evening.

After that, next week looks much drier and possibly even a few sunny breaks!

Happy Thursday!