Fri. Dec 14th, 2018

Significantly less rain total expected from UWash vs. EC

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - WIND WARNING IN EFFECT
    Issued: 3:52 PM PST Friday 14 December 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Friday 14 December 2018 - Friday night: Rain ending this evening then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Wind east 30 km/h becoming southwest 50 gusting to 90 early this evening then light late this evening. Low plus 3. Saturday: Cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning near noon. High 6. Saturday night: Rain. Temperature steady near plus 5. Sunday: Rain. High 6. Sunday night: Rain. Low 6. Monday: Rain. High 7. Monday night: Rain. Low 6. Tuesday: Rain. High 7. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 7. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 7.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.0° C
    -0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.52 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 15.4 km/h
    gusting 24.1 km/h
    Humidity
    75 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    2.8° C
    Heat Index
    6.0° C
    Dewpoint
    1.9° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 21:35:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    43.9 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:28
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (48% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:14:00
    Day High
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.0° C @ 21:30 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    9.1mm/hr @ 08:02 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    100.52 kPa @ 21:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    99.05 kPa @ 14:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    0.3° C @ 17:37 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 39.7km/h @ 17:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    32W/m2 @ 14:11 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Looking at the forecast totals for rain over the next couple days and I am seeing significantly different rain total amounts.

Environment Canada is predicting 10-15mm tonight and another 20mm on Friday in their text forecasts.

Compare that to the UWash WRF model that is only predicting up to 16 mm (blue) to fall in the 48hrs between Thursday and Saturday morning.

wa_pcp48.60.0000

That is in contrast to the West part of the Island that will likely see 30-60mm according to both the UWash and EC forecasts.

We’ll see who is right.  It will definitely be showery and damp for the next few days including into Saturday.  We will get a bit of a break Sunday morning before one final system affecting the whole Island moves through Sunday afternoon and evening.

After that, next week looks much drier and possibly even a few sunny breaks!

Happy Thursday!