Tue. Jan 21st, 2020

Showers Tuesday. Potentially dangerous Storm on Wednesday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Monday 20 January 2020 - Monday night: Periods of rain. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Periods of rain. Amount 10 to 15 mm. Becoming windy in the afternoon. High 6. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Amount 10 to 15 mm. Windy in the evening. Low plus 3. Wednesday: Rain. High plus 5. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 2. Thursday: Rain. High 8. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 4. Friday: Rain. High 7. Friday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Saturday: Periods of rain. High 8. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 3. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    2.1° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    99.8 kPa
    falling
    Wind
    0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    100 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    NA° C
    Heat Index
    5.3° C
    Dewpoint
    2.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 19:55:00 PDT
    Station Reports Delayed
    514 minutes
    Showing Nearest Official Station

    Observed at: Port Alberni 04:00 AM PST Tuesday 21 January 2020
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    16.5 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    115.8 mm since
    January 16, 2020 00:01
    Civil Rise
    07:28
    Moon Phase
    Waning crescent (14% full)
    Civil Set
    17:32
    Day Length
    12:30:10
    Day High
    8.1° C @ 06:46 Ystd
    Day Low
    3.2° C @ 01:45 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    15.2mm/hr @ 03:51 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.2 kPa @ 10:59 Ystd
    Day Low Barometer
    100.55 kPa @ 19:44 Ystd
    Day Low Windchill
    0.2° C @ 03:16 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.1° C @ 06:46 Ystd
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 16km/h @ 06:45 Ystd
    Day High Solar Radiation
    236W/m2 @ 10:16 Ystd
    Day High UV Index
    0.7 @ 10:03 Ystd

It’s going to rain or drizzle most of the day today as a weak system moves through.  It should clear a little after 4PM.  Total accumulation for the day is only 8mm.

The more drastic system will occur on Wednesday night and Thursday but the wind may miss most of the South Coast. For rain, the totals between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon are in the 60mm range.

wa_pcp24.60.0000

Rain will begin around 7PM on Wednesday night.  We will be protected at first as the winds will be mainly from the East and South East, following the deep low moving up the Island.

You can see us in the rain shadow Wednesday evening as the East Coast gets the majority of the rain and likely wind too.

wa_pcp3.39.0000-2

We start to get more rain around 1AM.

wa_pcp3.45.0000

Wind Possibilities

This is predicted to be a very strong and strengthening low overnight on Wednesday and into Thursday.

The first wave of strong winds will occur as the low moves up from California and deepens. Oregon will see winds well over 130kph (white) as the low moves west of Port Alberni and, in the image below, is around 975mb (97.5kPa)

wgsfc.39.0000-2

Low will then deepen, move to north and inland.

wgsfc.48.0000

It will be down to 969mb (96.9kPa) and you can see a very large amount of very strong 75knot winds offshore.  This is, I believe, the strongest low we have seen this winter this close to the Island.

It will then come ashore on the North Island early Thursday morning.

wgsfc.51.0000

Likely strong winds Thursday morning on West Coast but may miss most of South Coast.

wgsfc.54.0000

As you can see from the images the low continues to pull up to the north as it moves inland, so this is good news for the South Coast as it should mean we will avoid heavy winds.

However, I would keep a very close eye on this system as it is extremely strong and if it slipped 50km or more to the south, it will cause damage.

We have a couple more model runs to go before this storm comes, so we should have a better idea by tomorrow how it will go. Stay tuned