Wed. Aug 22nd, 2018

Showers Tuesday. Potentially dangerous Storm on Wednesday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 9:31 PM PDT Tuesday 21 August 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 21 August 2018 - Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Widespread smoke. Low 12. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Widespread smoke becoming local smoke near noon. High 31. Humidex 34. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Local smoke. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 23. Thursday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 20. Saturday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 13. Sunday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 18. Sunday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    18.4° C
    -1.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.45 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    62 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    18.4° C
    Heat Index
    18.4° C
    Dewpoint
    11.0° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 0:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:45
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (85% full)
    Civil Set
    20:56
    Day Length
    13:22:01
    Day High
    18.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    18.4° C @ 00:09 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.45 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.45 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    18.4° C @ 00:09 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    18.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

It’s going to rain or drizzle most of the day today as a weak system moves through.  It should clear a little after 4PM.  Total accumulation for the day is only 8mm.

The more drastic system will occur on Wednesday night and Thursday but the wind may miss most of the South Coast. For rain, the totals between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon are in the 60mm range.

wa_pcp24.60.0000

Rain will begin around 7PM on Wednesday night.  We will be protected at first as the winds will be mainly from the East and South East, following the deep low moving up the Island.

You can see us in the rain shadow Wednesday evening as the East Coast gets the majority of the rain and likely wind too.

wa_pcp3.39.0000-2

We start to get more rain around 1AM.

wa_pcp3.45.0000

Wind Possibilities

This is predicted to be a very strong and strengthening low overnight on Wednesday and into Thursday.

The first wave of strong winds will occur as the low moves up from California and deepens. Oregon will see winds well over 130kph (white) as the low moves west of Port Alberni and, in the image below, is around 975mb (97.5kPa)

wgsfc.39.0000-2

Low will then deepen, move to north and inland.

wgsfc.48.0000

It will be down to 969mb (96.9kPa) and you can see a very large amount of very strong 75knot winds offshore.  This is, I believe, the strongest low we have seen this winter this close to the Island.

It will then come ashore on the North Island early Thursday morning.

wgsfc.51.0000

Likely strong winds Thursday morning on West Coast but may miss most of South Coast.

wgsfc.54.0000

As you can see from the images the low continues to pull up to the north as it moves inland, so this is good news for the South Coast as it should mean we will avoid heavy winds.

However, I would keep a very close eye on this system as it is extremely strong and if it slipped 50km or more to the south, it will cause damage.

We have a couple more model runs to go before this storm comes, so we should have a better idea by tomorrow how it will go. Stay tuned