Showers Tuesday. Potentially dangerous Storm on Wednesday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Tuesday 20 February 2018 - Tuesday night: Clearing early this evening. Increasing cloudiness before morning. Low minus 6. Wednesday: Cloudy. Periods of snow beginning in the morning and ending late in the afternoon. Amount 2 to 4 cm. High zero. Wednesday night: Clearing in the evening. Low minus 7. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 5. Thursday night: Periods of snow. Low minus 4. Friday: Periods of snow. High plus 4. Friday night: Cloudy. Low minus 2. Saturday: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High plus 5. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low minus 1. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 6. Sunday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low minus 1. Monday: Cloudy. High 7.

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    N 49° 14' 46.1" :: W 124° 47' 60" at 30 m Google View

It’s going to rain or drizzle most of the day today as a weak system moves through.  It should clear a little after 4PM.  Total accumulation for the day is only 8mm.

The more drastic system will occur on Wednesday night and Thursday but the wind may miss most of the South Coast. For rain, the totals between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon are in the 60mm range.

wa_pcp24.60.0000

Rain will begin around 7PM on Wednesday night.  We will be protected at first as the winds will be mainly from the East and South East, following the deep low moving up the Island.

You can see us in the rain shadow Wednesday evening as the East Coast gets the majority of the rain and likely wind too.

wa_pcp3.39.0000-2

We start to get more rain around 1AM.

wa_pcp3.45.0000

Wind Possibilities

This is predicted to be a very strong and strengthening low overnight on Wednesday and into Thursday.

The first wave of strong winds will occur as the low moves up from California and deepens. Oregon will see winds well over 130kph (white) as the low moves west of Port Alberni and, in the image below, is around 975mb (97.5kPa)

wgsfc.39.0000-2

Low will then deepen, move to north and inland.

wgsfc.48.0000

It will be down to 969mb (96.9kPa) and you can see a very large amount of very strong 75knot winds offshore.  This is, I believe, the strongest low we have seen this winter this close to the Island.

It will then come ashore on the North Island early Thursday morning.

wgsfc.51.0000

Likely strong winds Thursday morning on West Coast but may miss most of South Coast.

wgsfc.54.0000

As you can see from the images the low continues to pull up to the north as it moves inland, so this is good news for the South Coast as it should mean we will avoid heavy winds.

However, I would keep a very close eye on this system as it is extremely strong and if it slipped 50km or more to the south, it will cause damage.

We have a couple more model runs to go before this storm comes, so we should have a better idea by tomorrow how it will go. Stay tuned