Showers starting overnight. Miami Beach swallowed by annual King tides.

Rainy Thursday on the way.

After a couple beautiful fall days, we will slip back into wet fall weather. Showers will begin to creep into the area as the sun goes down Wednesday but it is not going to be a lot of rain.

By the 5-6AM and 6-7AM hours Thursday morning, slightly stronger showers will begin the central Island area, particularly Port Alberni and Courtenay areas.

Rain Scale – Millimeters on top, centi-inches on bottom. (1024cin = 10 inches)

Showers should turn to rain by mid morning in those same areas with more showers spreading into the South Island as well.

Rain will peak before 2PM Thursday in Port Alberni but intense showers continue into the afternoon in the Bowser area. Notice the blue spots in the pictures below.

The whole region will dry out on Thursday night with just a few scattered showers mostly in the mountains on Friday.

The weekend looks OK at this point with rain coming back Monday.

The sea is invading Miami

This is King Tide season in Florida, and that means Miami is getting a preview of climate change and sea level rise. There have been a number of reports and images around the internet showing sea water ‘bubbling up’ from city manhole covers in neighbourhoods near the beach.

This article from last year calls it “sunny-day flooding”.

The “sunny day flooding,” as it’s known, is consistent enough that you can look at a calendar and a tide chart to plan a trip around it. High tides, caused by interactions between the sun, moon, Earth, and oceans, are behind the flooding. I visited during what are often the highest tides of the year, known as king tides.

And why is Miami and much of Florida so susceptible to rising sea levels? Here’s a good explainer:

The first is sea-level rise. Because of ocean currents and Miami’s location, sea levels are rising in and around the city and Miami Beach faster than in most of the world. 

The second problem facing South Florida is a vexing geological one. “Our underlying geology is like Swiss cheese,” said Obeysekera.

The solid ground under South Florida — Miami, Miami Beach, the Keys, and much of the rest of the peninsula — is mostly limestone made of compressed ancient reefs that are full of tiny holes. That means salty water is rising up through the ground itself, not just in the waters surrounding Florida.

Here on Vancouver Island, we don’t have that geological problem with porous limestone. Our bedrock is pretty hard, so as sea level rise accelerates, our most likely defence will be walls of concrete, or pulling back from the rising tide.

The just-released “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climatesays:

Global mean sea level (GMSL) is rising, with acceleration in recent decades due to increasing rates of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (very high confidence), as well as continued glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion.

The report states that if CO2 emissions are not stopped soon sea level rise beyond the year 2100 is “projected to exceed rates of several centimetres per year resulting in multi-metre rise” due to runaway melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets.

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