UPDATE 10AM – RAINFALL WARNING Continues – Second 50-100 year flood in 2 years possible Sunday/Monday – But there is Hope!

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

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Update 10AM Friday – Rainfall Warning Continues.

4:50 AM PST Friday 11 November 2016
Rainfall warning in effect for:

Further rainfall amounts from this event are expected to range between 60 and 90 mm on the west coast of Vancouver Island and to approach 50 mm through the inland valleys. Even higher amounts in excess of 100 mm can be expected over the mountains where watersheds are already near capacity.

The heavy rainfall will finally end Saturday afternoon as the front moves inland.

Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

The radar is showing light to moderate (4mm/hr) rainfall throughout the region.

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This light rain pattern should continue all day with some possible breaks around between about 1PM or 3PM and then intensify tonight around 6PM.

The rain will last through most of Saturday now and then only a short break on Saturday afternoon before the next system overnight and Sunday morning.

Expect up to 60mm to fall on Sunday.

Update 5PM – Rainfall and Flood Warning continued.

The flood warning:

Flood Warning (Maintained):

Campbell River
Somass River and tributaries

The Somass River has eased today due to decreasing input flows from the Ash River and Sproat River. Local reports indicate flooding persists in some areas near Port Alberni adjacent to the Somass River. At this time, Highway 4 is open, updates are available at the Drive BC website. Higher flows are forecast by Friday afternoon and through the weekend, with peak flows expected by late Sunday or early Monday.

BC Hydro advised today that releases from the Strathcona system into the Campbell River will continue, after high tide today, at 600 m3/s. Flooding adjacent to the river is expected in low lying areas. Information on the status of BC Hydro reservoirs is available at the BC Hydro website.

The next storm for Vancouver Island is expected to arrive by Thursday evening. Environment and Climate Change Canada forecasts rainfall totals of up to 200 mm for inland Vancouver Island mountains, up to 150 mm for west Vancouver Island, and up to 50 mm for east Vancouver Island, for the period from Thursday night to Saturday night.

The rain ☔️ warning:

3:51 PM PST Thursday 10 November 2016
Rainfall warning in effect for:

Inland Vancouver Island
Rain, at times heavy, is expected. The ground, already near saturation, has little ability to absorb further rainfall.

Another intense frontal system will bring more heavy rain to parts of Vancouver Island beginning tonight. The front is expected to stall across Central Vancouver Island on Friday and remain in place until Saturday.

Total rainfall amounts from this event are expected to range between 100 and 150 mm on the west coast of Vancouver Island and to approach 100 mm through the inland valleys. Even higher amounts in excess of 150 mm can be expected over the mountains where watersheds are already near capacity.

The heavy rainfall will finally end Saturday afternoon as the front moves inland.

Update 2PM – RAINFALL WARNING IN EFFECT

Bad News – The front is now expected to stall over Vancouver Island.   More rain expected now on Friday.

  • Rain To 4AM Friday: up to 8 mm
  • Rain between 4AM/4PM Friday: 4-8mm
  • Rain between 4PM Friday/4AM Saturday: 16-35mm

It will stop Saturday morning and we will get a break until Sunday when the larger system comes in starting Sunday morning and continuing into Monday morning.  Totals for Sunday/Monday up to 60mm.

11:21 AM PST Thursday 10 November 2016
Rainfall warning in effect for:

  • Inland Vancouver Island

Rain, at times heavy, is expected. The ground, already near saturation, has little ability to absorb further rainfall.

Another intense frontal system will bring more heavy rain to parts of Vancouver Island beginning tonight. The front is expected to stall across Central Vancouver Island on Friday and remain in place for an extended period of time.

 

 

 

We had a very nice break on Wednesday with sunshine and record breaking warm temperatures. We got up to 16.1ºC at the Airport.  Previous Airport record was 13.9ºC … guess when?  2014 (but doesn’t beat 17.8 in 1908). And we are about to test another record set in 2014.  For Flooding.

The Flood Warning Continues for the Somass River as well as the Sproat and tributaries and creeks in Port Alberni. The River flow is expected to decrease slightly this morning, and Highway 4 is now partially reopened at the bottom of Watty’s Hill with alternating traffic.

This is not going to last though. Anecdotal reports are that Sproat Lake is now at the same high water mark as during the December 2014 storms. This is backed up with BC River reports on the Peak this morning that Somass river flows are near the same levels as 2014, estimated at 1115 m3/s, which is a 50 to 100 year return period flow.

Rain Forecast

The UWash models seem to be having some glitches with their new expanded high res format so I have to go back to the lower resolution maps.

Rain will begin around 10PM Thursday.  Expected total by 4AM Friday is 6mm which should not be enough to cause river levels to rise.

Another 8mm or so will fall during the day on Friday.  Again, not enough to cause an immediate increase.  However, as you can see below, totals in the mountains will reach into the 50mm range by Friday afternoon which will put pressure on the lakes/rivers laters Friday night and Saturday.

Rain Scale

screen-shot-2016-11-10-at-8-13-27-am

It will be nearly dry this whole time south of Parksville on the East Coast of the Island.

Friday night and Saturday have widespread rain with totals up to 30mm between 4PM Friday until Saturday morning.  Thankfully there is no deluge in the mountains this time.

screen-shot-2016-11-10-at-8-14-48-am

Saturday looks almost dry!

screen-shot-2016-11-10-at-8-17-06-am

However….

I am concerned about Sunday where 24hr totals between 4AM Sunday/Monday are back into the  60-100mm range locally and in the mountains.

Rain Scale

screen-shot-2016-11-10-at-8-19-31-am

Lets hope that that is just a pessimistic model but what we know for sure is we have a 12ft Full Moon tide on Monday morning (11:35AM).

That major tide combined with Sunday rain could be very bad depending on the timing.  Last weeks flooding occurred with a 9ft tide.

There is Hope!

Here’s some good news though.  After Monday, the forecast appears to be calming down:

screen-shot-2016-11-10-at-8-22-42-am

You can see in the 16 day forecast that we are going to get around 125mm of rain in the next 4 days.  But after that, we only accumulate about the same for the next 12 day period.

Temperatures are going to start to cool and we might see the first bits of snow on the mountains.

screen-shot-2016-11-10-at-8-24-46-am

It’s going to start to feel like…. fog (You probably thought I was going to say something else! lol) ;=)