Updated 9:00PM Thursday Round 3: Deep Low to our south bringing more rain maybe wind

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Sunday 22 July 2018 - Sunday: Sunny. High 31. Humidex 33. UV index 8 or very high. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 32. Humidex 33. UV index 8 or very high. Monday night: Clear. Low 13. Tuesday: Sunny. High 34. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 35. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 13. Thursday: Sunny. High 34. Thursday night: Clear. Low 14. Friday: Sunny. High 29. Friday night: Clear. Low 15. Saturday: Sunny. High 29.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    31.2° C
    0.7 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.01 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NW 1.1 km/h
    gusting 8.0 km/h
    Humidity
    33 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    31.2° C
    Heat Index
    31.2° C
    Dewpoint
    13.0° C
    UV
    5.4
    Solar
    920 W/m2
    Last Updated: 15:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:57
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (80% full)
    Civil Set
    21:52
    Day Length
    13:25:41
    Day High
    31.2° C @ 15:14 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.4° C @ 06:05 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.38 kPa @ 07:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.01 kPa @ 15:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.4° C @ 06:05 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    31.2° C @ 15:14 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 5.9km/h @ 12:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    956W/m2 @ 14:13 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.5 @ 13:16 Tdy.

Updated 9:00PM – Waiting for the storm

We’ve had very little rain today (in comparison to the previous few days) and only a little bit of wind so far.

The low is almost exactly following UWash and it should be directly overhead very soon if it is not already.  Beautiful little swirl on the satellite picture.

Latest imagery shows it off Cape Flattery.
8:30PM imagery shows it off Cape Flattery.

If we are going to get serious wind, it will be in the next hour or two as the low comes onto Vancouver Island but at this point all of the lighthouses on the West Coast of Vancouver Island have light winds.


 

The low centre is obvious in the latest satellite picture from 6AM just on the Oregon/California border.

Realtime satellite image
Realtime satellite image

The model for the 6AM hour is below and it looks like the storm is a little ahead of the model.

Position of low seems right, but rain is way off.
Position of low is maybe a little further south  right, but rain is way off.

At least at this point it looks like the storm is a little further north and closer to shore than was predicted.  That could mean it hits land a little earlier and further south or simply that it gets to us sooner.  We will know in a few hours.

UNfortunately though, the model has definitely underestimated the band of rain this early in the morning.

Stay safe out there people. More updates in a couple hours.


 

 

Well, we’ve made it through 2 rounds… there have been evacuations.. there has been major flooding in places not seen “in 60 years” (Hugh Braker – Tseshaht – CBC Radio.).  And there have been evacuations, and all manner of minor and major damage.

The worst of course has been on Tseshaht reserve.  Many many sandbags are being filled by volunteers to try to keep the worst of the water out of the homes near the river.  The water is still threatening as high tide comes fast around 3:40AM.

Flooding on Hector Rd. Picture from the Peak
Flooding on Hector Rd. Picture from the Peak
The Dyke/Kitsuksis Creek is getting full
The Dyke/Kitsuksis Creek is getting full

Even my house hasn’t gotten away unscathed.  We lost shingles on Tuesday and a bunch more are flapping.   But it’s nothing compared to the flooding happening.

LAST STORM – Could be the worst, or the least.

The low will move up from the Oregon coast.  They will be the worst hit if this model is correct.
The low will move up from the Oregon coast. They will be the worst hit if this model is correct.
wgsfc.27.0000
The low will skirt the coast and end up coming ashore very near Cape Flattery and likely cross over the South Island.

The low is supposed to come ashore around 10PM Thursday, so we have at least one more forecast run to give us a good idea what it will do.

If it sticks to this forecast, we will not likely get much wind.  If the storm stays just a little offshore then it could easily come straight up Barkley Sound and affect us.   The strongest part of the winds are always on the southeast side of the low, so where it passes us is critical.  At this point, there is only an outside chance of it passing to the north of us and delivering us those winds.

MORE RAIN:

We might not get any wind, but we will get some rain, just not as much as we have the past two days.

Tonight’s rain should FINALLY stop by around 2AM.

Thursday, instead of the rain coming down the Island it will reverse and come up the Island.

The front moves up the Island starting late Thursday morning.
The front moves up the Island starting Thursday morning.
wa_pcp3.30.0000-2
It will rain all day, but the strongest rainfall will come with the landing of the low itself around 10PM. It is too early to know for sure, but on this model there is a strong band of rain pointed up the Alberni Inlet. Not good for flooding concerns.

Flooding will be a concern all day.

We have had 67mm today so far.  Thursday through Friday we should only get 32mm.  It is significantly less than what we have had but the rivers are so swollen already that any more could be bad.  The tides have to cooperate too. Tides are always available from the links at the top of the page under “Marine”.

Here are the tides for Thursday.

Rain will likely be falling through all the high tides Thursday.
Rain will likely be falling through all the high tides Thursday.

The good news is if there is a storm surge with the heaviest rain Thursday night, it is likely to coincide more with the low tide at 9:43PM than the high tide at 4:25AM.  But, as we have seen today, predictions don’t always work out.

Stay safe everyone.  There is a light at the end of the tunnel.  We should have sunny breaks on Friday and a chance to dry out on the Weekend before some more rain on Monday.

Chris.