September 29, 2022

Rare May Storm incoming

Batten down the hatches

It’s pretty unusual to have this kind of storm in May at all, let alone the week before the Long Weekend. But here we are. Get ready for what could be a significant wind, and rain event all across Vancouver Island.

Here it comes

This is the just released forecast for the 11PM-1AM period Tuesday night. It expects the system to be beginning to impact the North Island.

Here is the 05:30UTC Satellite picture showing that perhaps the system is a *little* ahead of the forecast.

Significant spring rainfall. Possible flooding?

Here are the expected 24hr rainfall totals. It looks like the West Coast of the Island can expect up to 20-40mm of rain. Port Alberni 15-30mm and Nanaimo and Vancouver 5-10mm.

However, if you look at the barbs on the picture above you can see some pretty strong winds all over the South Coast and that will likely be the biggest feature of this event, though I also don’t discount the possibility of serious runoff/floods if the air and rain is warm enough to cause a significant snow melt.

Wind Potential

The picture above appears to show when the low pressure centre is expected to make landfall on the north end of Vancouver Island. It has quite a wide strong wind field stretching all the way to the Columbia River.

Expect winds to start to pick up in all regions of the South Coast overnight on Tuesday and into Tuesday morning. Expect Ferry Cancellations. And by the looks of this map, you can expect strong winds on the East Coast, West Coast, Great Victoria and possibly Port Alberni as well though usually Port Alberni is protected from the South Westerly winds.

Take care on Wednesday and especially if you’re travelling anywhere. It still doesn’t feel much like the month before the start of Summer!