Mon. Oct 22nd, 2018

Rainy weekend. Wet–slushy?–Tuesday. Foggy or Sunny Christmas?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Sunday 21 October 2018 - Sunday night: A few clouds. Fog developing near midnight. Low plus 4. Monday: Fog dissipating in the morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Monday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Increasing cloudiness. High 16. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 9. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 13. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 8. Thursday: Rain. High 12. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low 8. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 12. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 13.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    10.1° C
    -1.3 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.54 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    92 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    10.1° C
    Heat Index
    10.1° C
    Dewpoint
    8.8° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 20:45:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:16
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (93% full)
    Civil Set
    18:50
    Day Length
    13:03:47
    Day High
    17.7° C @ 16:16 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.5° C @ 08:10 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.88 kPa @ 00:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.46 kPa @ 16:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    4.9° C @ 08:13 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.7° C @ 16:16 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.4km/h @ 08:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    615W/m2 @ 13:24 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.5 @ 13:21 Tdy.

The fog is gone!  You now have rain to deal with 😀

Before I get started… if you are looking for the Christmas Light Tour Google Map, I have made it its own webpage at:
www.alberniweather.ca/christmaslights

We have a few light showers overnight.  I didn’t actually record any rainfall on the automatic gauge but my manual gauge did have 0.5mm in the bucket this morning from the past couple of days. Some of that is probably condensation from the fog.

We will dry out a bit Friday. There are no showers expected in our region today.

However, drizzle and showers will roll back in before sunrise Saturday morning and continue all day.

The strongest bit of rain will come Sunday morning but overall this does not look like a strong rain event. It just looks like a constant soaking that should end in the evening on Sunday.

Great! 🙂

A more serious punch of rain… with a slight chance of wet snow(?) should come Monday night and into Tuesday next week.

After that, it looks like we might be back to a dry and foggy pattern.

But what… you may be asking…. can we expect for Christmas?

Well, standard long range forecasts are not quite there yet, but some specialized ones are.  Take them with a grain of salt 🙂

Here is the 10 day from the Canadian GEM model. We can see that after the rain/snow on Tuesday, it stays cold and dry up to Christmas Eve.

The American GFS model has only rain in the forecast and the same dry spell after Tuesday… but not nearly as cold (and probably foggier).  I think this is the more likely scenario.

The 16 day forecast… so headed out almost to New Years… has the dry and cool (and probably foggy pattern stretching right through Christmas and probably into the New Year, though it does have an interesting little bump of moisture around the 23rd.  However, it is the only model that has that.