Rainy weekend. Wet–slushy?–Tuesday. Foggy or Sunny Christmas?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Friday 23 February 2018 - Friday night: A few flurries and rain showers ending near midnight then clearing. Low minus 3. Saturday: Sunny. Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon then 60 percent chance of showers late in the afternoon. High 7. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low zero. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. High 7. Sunday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: Cloudy. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Rain. High 7. Wednesday night: Rain or snow. Low plus 1. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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The fog is gone!  You now have rain to deal with 😀

Before I get started… if you are looking for the Christmas Light Tour Google Map, I have made it its own webpage at:

We have a few light showers overnight.  I didn’t actually record any rainfall on the automatic gauge but my manual gauge did have 0.5mm in the bucket this morning from the past couple of days. Some of that is probably condensation from the fog.

We will dry out a bit Friday. There are no showers expected in our region today.

However, drizzle and showers will roll back in before sunrise Saturday morning and continue all day.

The strongest bit of rain will come Sunday morning but overall this does not look like a strong rain event. It just looks like a constant soaking that should end in the evening on Sunday.

Great! 🙂

A more serious punch of rain… with a slight chance of wet snow(?) should come Monday night and into Tuesday next week.

After that, it looks like we might be back to a dry and foggy pattern.

But what… you may be asking…. can we expect for Christmas?

Well, standard long range forecasts are not quite there yet, but some specialized ones are.  Take them with a grain of salt 🙂

Here is the 10 day from the Canadian GEM model. We can see that after the rain/snow on Tuesday, it stays cold and dry up to Christmas Eve.

The American GFS model has only rain in the forecast and the same dry spell after Tuesday… but not nearly as cold (and probably foggier).  I think this is the more likely scenario.

The 16 day forecast… so headed out almost to New Years… has the dry and cool (and probably foggy pattern stretching right through Christmas and probably into the New Year, though it does have an interesting little bump of moisture around the 23rd.  However, it is the only model that has that.


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